2355 COVINGTON CREEK Drive · Covington Creek · MLS# 2148226
CONFIDENTIAL · INTERNAL USE ONLY · NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Developing confidence
76% · ✓ Backtested · 999 recent local sales
Market value
$664,900
Current ask
$617,000
Recommendation
Hold at $617,000
Sale in 30 days
Solid
Comps support up to
$635,900
Biggest problem
Time on market
Biggest opportunity
Price leadership
Investment Thesis
This home is priced a little ahead of where the comparable sales land, and time on the market is working against it. Repositioning to $635,900 puts it out front as the value in its group and gives the best odds of competing offers.
Recommendation: hold at $617,000, the comps support it
COVINGTON CREEK
2355 COVINGTON CREEK Drive
4 Bed3 Bath2,405 SFBuilt 1989
Property Snapshot
List price $617,000
$ / sq ft $256.5
Original ask n/a
Beds / baths 4 / 3
Heated sq ft 2,405
Year built 1989
Lot size n/a
Days on mkt n/a
Source: test
Market Position Score
Well Positioned
Developing confidence✓ Backtested
$549,900 – $810,900
Comparable homes have priced within about ±22% of this range in roughly 80% of recent local sales.
Methodology validated against recent local sales.
76%★★★½☆
Confidence · comp similarity, recent sales, data quality
The score reflects the price against the comps for a home not yet on the market.
Estimated Current Market Value
Low
$637,900
Midpoint
$664,900
High
$726,900
Current asking price$617,000
Difference vs. midpoint-7.2% (-$47,900)
Estimated market value · probability distribution
Below $633,900
0%
$633,900–$659,900
35%
$659,900–$669,900
36%
$669,900–$727,900
29%
Above $727,900
0%
Most-likely clearing price $659,900–$669,900 (36% odds). Each percentage is the modeled chance the final contract price lands in that band, the way institutional research quotes value: a distribution, not a single number.
Seasonal read: August closings in Duval County run 23% below the yearly average across 2 years of sales data; September runs 1% below the yearly average.
The Verdict
The Report Card
One page. Six grades. The whole listing at a glance.
Overall grade
B+
weighted across six factors
House Condition
A
Shows well for its age and condition.
Location
A-
Covington Creek, a location buyers seek out.
Price vs. Market
A
Priced a little over the proven clearing midpoint before any staleness discount.
Market Timing
C
Not yet on the market — a fresh start with no listing history.
Competition
B+
A competitive resale set plus active new construction for the same buyer.
Builder Competition
B+
Nearby builders lead with rate buydowns a resale has to answer with price.
Negotiation leverage
Buyer’s marketSeller’s market
Leverage sits with the seller right now at this price.
Stale Listing Risk™
Low riskHigh risk
Low · driven by 17 days on market without a contract.
“Buyers never know what you were hoping to get. They only know today’s price.”
If I owned this house
I would put it at $635,900. It sits under the recent comparable sales, which makes it the clear value for a buyer in this range. Keep any incentive for the closing table. The one signal that would change my mind is a comparable home closing above the current ask in the next few weeks.
Test Agent, Momentum Realty
The Evidence
What the Market Is Telling Us
This is a valuation for a home that is not on the market yet. It reads what buyers are paying for comparable homes so you can set the right list price.
Chart 2 · Price per Square Foot
Against the same-size homes
What this means: Bigger homes carry a lower number per foot, so line this up against homes the same size rather than the whole group.
Chart 3 · Days on Market
Time on market
What this means: The Covington Creek homes that priced right sold quickly. At zero days this one is running longer than the typical sale.
Subject vs. Comparable Sales · the competitive set
Sold (proven)Pending (accepted)Active (asking)Your home
Property
Status
Date
Price
Beds / Sq Ft
Year
Build
Pool
Conc.
$/SF
DOM
13983 SOUND OVERLOOK Drive
Marsh Sound
Pending
listed Aug 16 '26
$638,900
4 / 2,439
1997
Resale
Pool
—
$262
4
1720 E TALL TREE Drive
The Woods · 1.0 mi away · Cash
Sold
Jul 27 '26
$625,000
4 / 2,355
2017
Resale
—
—
$265
1
2310 COVINGTON CREEK Circle
Covington Creek · 0.1 mi away · Conventional
Sold
Mar 23 '26
$620,000
3 / 2,020
1993
Resale
—
—
$307
152
2355 COVINGTON CREEK Drive
SUBJECT
$617,000
4 / 2,405
1989
$256
n/a
13877 SOFTWIND Trail
Marsh Sound · 0.5 mi away · Cash
Sold
Jul 14 '26
$616,000
4 / 2,263
1997
Resale
—
Yes
$272
9
2720 CANYON FALLS Drive
Villages Of Pablo · 0.6 mi away · Cash
Sold
Jul 22 '26
$594,000
4 / 2,242
1992
Resale
—
Yes
$265
5
2326 COVINGTON CREEK Circle
Covington Creek · 0.1 mi away · VA
Sold
Mar 2 '26
$580,000
4 / 2,245
1993
Resale
—
—
$258
16
13684 GLENHAVEN Court
Covington Creek
Active
listed Aug 18 '26
$569,000
4 / 2,083
1988
Resale
Pool
—
$273
2
Adjusted Comparable Sales · each sale restated to your home
Comparable
Sold
Sold price
Market adj
Size adj
Features adj
Adjusted value
2310 COVINGTON CREEK Circle
2026-03-23
$620,000
+$19,015
+$99,931
–
$738,946
13877 SOFTWIND Trail
2026-07-14
$616,000
+$7,079
+$36,858
–
$659,937
1720 E TALL TREE Drive
2026-07-27
$625,000
+$7,182
+$12,978
–
$645,160
2720 CANYON FALLS Drive
2026-07-22
$594,000
+$6,826
+$42,308
–
$643,134
2326 COVINGTON CREEK Circle
2026-03-02
$580,000
+$17,788
+$41,530
–
$639,318
13684 GLENHAVEN Court · active
active
$551,930
–
+$83,578
–
$635,508
All 53 adjusted sales in the last 6 months drive the estimate; the 6 most comparable are shown. The same adjustment method an appraiser uses, with every premium measured from this market’s own closed sales — nothing is a rule of thumb. Measured here: size $260/sf. Not priced here: pool — this market has not closed enough same-size sales on both sides of that feature in the window to measure what it is worth, so no adjustment was invented. Those rows are worth your own judgement.
Left out of the value set, priced on bigger lots or upgrades: $1,415,000, $1,040,965, $1,275,000.
Why Buyers Behave This Way
Anchoring
Buyers fix on the first number they see — every later cut is measured against it.
Reduction suspicion
One cut reads as flexibility; a string of cuts reads as “what do they know that I don’t?”
Freshness bias
Week-one listings get the attention; stale ones get filtered out before anyone tours.
Test’s Take
Asking prices are opinions and closed sales are facts. Everything on this page leans on what buyers actually paid, because that is the only number an appraiser and a lender will stand behind.
The Method
How This Price Was Tested
Independent ways to price the same home, ranked, not averaged: sales comparison sets the number and the others check it.
How this price was tested · every method, ranked
Sales comparisonPrimary
$664,900 · $637,900–$726,900
53 closed sales from the last 6 months, each adjusted to this home
✓ Restates each sale to this home — the appraisal standard
⚠ Needs enough genuinely similar recent sales
Active & pending competitionToday's market
$620,900 -6.6% vs comps
3 same-size homes under contract across ZIP 32224 at $262/sf, taken to 98.5% of asking (what buyers here pay against list)
✓ What a buyer can choose instead, this week
⚠ Asking prices are opinions until they close
Market trend since purchaseContext
not available
no prior sale for this home is on record with the county
✓ This home’s own last sale, moved by the ZIP’s trend
⚠ Blind to condition and work done since purchase
Price per square footCross-check
$650,900 -2.1% vs comps
$271/sf median across 34 same-size sales across ZIP 32224 x 2,405 sf
✓ What buyers actually paid per foot here
⚠ Blind to lot, condition, age and finish
Reconciliation: The methods span 6.6%, which is normal. Sales comparison leads because it is the only one that adjusts for what makes this home different; the others sit close enough to confirm it rather than challenge it. Every figure above is computed from this market’s own recorded sales and listings; nothing is carried in from another market.
Where the methods land · one price axis
What this means: the tighter these sit, the more defensible the asking price is in front of a buyer, an agent or an appraiser. The navy marker is the sales-comparison figure the recommendation is built on.
Comparable set: detached single-family homes only — different products trade on a different price per foot. Sales are drawn from competing communities as well as this one, because buyers shop across neighborhoods at this price.
The Signals
Momentum Market Signals
Proprietary indices that turn raw MLS data into a read on how hard this home is to sell right now.
Momentum Market Signals · proprietary read
Momentum Pricing Score™
97/100Strong
How closely the current ask lines up with where these homes actually clear.
Stale Listing Risk™
25/100Low
17 days on market against a typical 17 for homes that priced right.
Seller Leverage Index™
61/100Strong
Your negotiating position given supply, time on market and rivals cutting price.
Buyer Demand Index™
97/100Strong
Pending-to-active listings and how fast homes clear, a read on how many buyers are competing in your band.
Absorption Probability
90%
Odds a correctly priced home like yours clears within 45 days.
Builder Incentive Pressure
n/a
New-construction share is not reported in this area's data set.
Affordability Pressure
n/a
Not modeled: purchase, tax and insurance figures for this home were not provided.
How these are calculated: each index is scored 0 to 100 from the last 12 months of local MLS data for this price band — closed sales, active inventory, price reductions, absorption and pending activity. Nothing is opinion-scored; every input is a recorded MLS event. Items marked (est.) are modeled where direct data is not reported.
Value Spectrum · every comparable on one price-per-foot line
What this means: Each dot is a comparable at its price per foot, with the proven sold range shaded. Price against the cluster this home actually sits in, not the highest dot on the line.
Test’s Take
Here is the part sellers rarely hear: this listing's story is still clean. No withdrawals, no cut history for buyers to read into. That is an asset with a shelf life — one decisive reset reads as conviction, while the string of small trims most sellers drift into reads as doubt. Spend the clean story on one move, not four.
Test Agent, Momentum Realty
WHY SELLERS CHOOSE MOMENTUM RESEARCH
Appraisal-method valuation from this market’s own closed sales
Millions of Florida sales records refreshed daily across 12 MLSs
Independent pricing methods on every report, ranked and reconciled
The Market
Neighborhood & County Dashboard
test
ZIP 32224
New-build $/sf
$325
latest new-build price/ft
Newest read
14%
of sales are new construction
What this means: The community charts show what this pocket of the market has actually been doing, quarter by quarter. Price per foot and days on market together tell you whether sellers here are getting their number or chasing it. Price with the trend, not against it.
County
Newest read
17%
of sales are new construction
What this means: The county numbers are the backdrop every buyer compares this home against. Price per foot county-wide sets the value floor and the new-construction share sets the competition. August closings in Duval County run 23% below the yearly average across 2 years of sales data; September runs 1% below the yearly average.
The Biggest Issue
New-Construction Competition
Existing owners here compete with builders, not just neighbors.
New construction
17%
of county sales right now
New-build $/sf
$179
vs $193 resale
New-build days on mkt
37
vs 31 for resale
Active new-build rivals
8
in your price band
What this means: A buyer in this range can get a brand-new home for close to the same money, with builder incentives on top. That patience sets the ceiling on your price, so a resale has to be move-in ready and priced with a clear reason to choose it.
Where the builders are active
Seven Pines (10). These communities are adding inventory near you and pricing to move it.
Active new-construction listings a buyer sees against you
Listing
Community
Price
Beds / Sq Ft
Year
$/SF
DOM
6017 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$645,435
3 / 1,990
2026
$324
37
6016 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$659,195
3 / 2,091
2026
$315
66
12170 GRAND PINE Drive
Seven Pines
$675,900
3 / 2,010
2026
$336
97
6010 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$692,485
3 / 2,228
2026
$311
66
6046 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$696,005
3 / 2,228
2026
$312
39
6028 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$709,765
4 / 2,387
2026
$297
65
6023 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$713,445
4 / 2,391
2026
$298
6
6070 TIMBER PINES Road
Seven Pines
$719,985
4 / 2,391
2026
$301
62
◆ The takeaway
Coming in under the recent same-size sales does two jobs at once. It clears the resale competition and it undercuts the builders, who will not drop below their pro-forma. That is the fastest path to an offer.
Proceeds at Closing · before mortgage payoff, across the value range
At a sale price of
$635,900
$637,900
$726,900
Sale price
$635,900
$637,900
$726,900
Commission at 6%
negotiable, and set by your listing agreement
−$38,154
−$38,274
−$43,614
Documentary stamps on the deed (0.70 per $100)
Florida deed tax
−$4,451
−$4,465
−$5,088
Owner’s title policy
Florida promulgated rate; customarily the seller in this county
−$3,254
−$3,264
−$3,710
Settlement and recording
−$750
−$750
−$750
Broker transaction fee
brokerage administrative fee, disclosed in your listing agreement
−$350
−$350
−$350
Proceeds at closing (before mortgage payoff)
$588,940
$590,796
$673,388
Read this as an estimate, not a closing statement. Commission is shown at 6% as a starting point. It is negotiable, and whatever your listing agreement says is what applies. Documentary stamps and the title premium are set by Florida statute and the promulgated rate, so those are calculated, not guessed. Not included, because no report can know them: your mortgage payoff, property-tax proration, HOA or condo estoppel fees, repairs or buyer concessions negotiated after inspection, and any survey or permit costs. Your closing agent will produce the binding figure.
Test’s Take
A buyer comparing your home to a new build is really comparing monthly payments. Meeting that with a sharp price is cheaper for you than trying to out-feature a model home.
The Decision
Odds, Trade-offs & Cost of Waiting
The numbers behind the recommendation, and the case against it.
Sale probability at $635,900, 45 days · modeled
The payoff of pricing right
At the current ask the odds of a sale inside 45 days sit near 85–95%. Repositioning to $635,900 lifts them to roughly 5–15%, because a sharp number turns a quiet listing into a competitive one. These are modeled estimates from local days-on-market and price-cut patterns, not direct observations — the direction is the finding.
What happens if you do not act
Price
Position
Expected days on market
Probability of sale
45-day odds
$617,000
current ask
under 30 days
85–95%
$664,900
fair value
30 to 60 days
5–15%
$635,900
recommended
under 30 days
5–15%
$637,900
market-making
30 to 60 days
5–15%
Each week above the clearing band trades a little price for a lot of time. Holding at the current ask is the slowest path and the least certain one.
If nothing changes · the next 90 days
30 days
5–10%
still active at $617,000
Most homes priced above the clearing band are still sitting a month in.
60 days
$660,900
expected value after a cut
A reduction becomes hard to avoid; the market pulls the price toward the proven midpoint.
90 days
$629,900
expected value with stigma
Crossing 90 days deepens the staleness discount, so it clears below where it could have.
Modeled from local days-on-market and the price-cut pattern in your band; estimates of the most likely path, not guarantees.
◆ What Could Prove Me Wrong
A comparable Covington Creek home closes above $737,900 in the next few weeks.
30-year mortgage rates fall below 5.5% and pull buyers off the sidelines.
Inventory in your county drops sharply and supply tightens.
Builders pull their rate buydowns and closing help.
A cash or relocation buyer values a newer build over the older resales.
Seller questions, answered
Can I get more than this?
Only if a higher comparable closes first. Today's proven prices cap it near $664,900.
Should I wait?
Waiting mainly adds carrying cost. The data does not show prices rising here right now.
Should I wait for the market to catch up?
Waiting costs carrying costs every month, and the freshest listings get the attention. The data favors acting.
