Data Analysis · Statewide
Builders pulled 9,943 single-family permits in June, the third June in a row below the year before. The broader permit pipeline is 24% below its late-2022 peak. This is the story behind the chart on our front page.
Momentum Realty · Florida Housing Intelligence · August 19, 2026. All figures as of the June 2026 Building Permits Survey data, released July 24, 2026.
The permits panel on our front page tracks new private housing units authorized by building permits in Florida, from the Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey. A permit is the earliest public record of a home that does not exist yet, which makes this series the best forward look at Florida supply that anyone publishes. Permits lead completions by roughly a year: what builders file today is what gets delivered next summer.
The single-family series has now posted three consecutive June declines: 12,569 in June 2023, then 10,798, then 10,442, and now 9,943. June 2026 sits 21% below June 2023 and about 31% below the June 2021 peak of 14,372. The broader all-structures series tells the same story with more altitude: Florida authorized 156,621 units in the twelve months through June, against 191,164 in the same window three years earlier, an 18% decline, and the 12-month average has fallen 24% from its December 2022 peak. November 2025, at 9,652 total units, was the weakest single month in the four and a half years we track on the front page.
Fewer permits today means fewer new homes competing for buyers a year from now. In the near term the slide reflects builder caution: inventory on the resale side has climbed, new construction has been discounting against resale in several Florida markets, and builders respond by starting less. Further out, it is the mechanism that eventually puts a floor under prices. Markets do not stay oversupplied when the pipeline that feeds them is shrinking by a fifth. For buyers, the window with the most new-construction negotiating leverage is while completed inventory is still working through the system. For sellers, the competition from brand-new product thins from here, not thickens.
Limitations. Figures are Census Building Permits Survey data through June 2026, not seasonally adjusted, released July 24, 2026 and subject to revision. June-to-June comparisons avoid seasonal distortion but are single-month reads. Permits measure authorizations, not starts or completions; some permitted homes are never built. The 12-month average and window comparisons cover January 2022 through June 2026, the span charted on our front page.
Sources. U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; series FLBP1FH (single-family) and FLBPPRIV (all structures) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.