This Boomer Real Estate PANIC Is Just Getting STARTED

New data is coming out and showing that boomers are freaking out about the real estate market and prices are coming down rapidly depending on where you're located. But it's not the end of this. It's just the beginning. And the only thing really holding up boomers at this point are their stock portfolios that continue to run.

But let's dig into why real estate is changing so fast and what it is doing to the boomer portfolios and what that could mean for you and your business long term. So, wow, sellers are freaking out. This is a new report that came out from Compass with the withdrawal ratio per state. We refer to this locally as rage quitting or rage cancelling.

When a seller gets so upset that they can't get the price that they want that they instantly pull the property off of the market and wait for a better future or a better tomorrow, which we know is very unlikely to happen at this case. Look at this. This is the withdrawn listings as a percent of new listings coming on the market. And this is why you don't see inventory creeping up.

It's not because people aren't wanting to sell. It's they do want to sell. It's because they are not getting the price that they need to be able to move to another house. 62% ratio here in Florida.

55% ratio in Texas. 51% ratio. So, there's tons of people pulling their properties off of the market. Generally, these are older generations.

Their houses are outdated. Younger buyers literally cannot afford to purchase their home. And the sellers get really upset that they can't get the price they want. So instead of dropping the price to where it'll actually sell, they blame the real estate agent.

They blame blame the younger generations for not making enough money to purchase their home. And in a lot of cases, I don't blame them because they don't have to move to the other house if they locked in a two or 3% rate. And why would they make the move if they had to pay more or equal for a smaller house? Now, this is stopping.

This is causing a freeze effect on the market and the number of transactions are falling because we know that 70% of sellers are also buyers. So when they can't sell their house, they're unable to buy the next house. But a lot of these houses are larger than 3,000 square feet. They need a lot of work done on them.

And inventory continues to stack month after month after month into a phase where we're likely going to see tons of inventory, especially here in the south, come onto the market from now until uh the end of the year. And my prediction over the next 18 months based on this data that we're seeing is that we're going to see every single month until basically next February prices will be coming down about you know.7% here in the south. Now of course it's going to depend on which pocket pocket you're in but the data is not looking good. Here's the sellers getting scared.

So survey reveals from realtor.com that 79% of sellers wish they had listed their house sooner. We've been putting this information out since 2022 that sellers should really take a look at their investment properties. A lot of people are mom and pops and they own four or five pieces of real estate and they still have debt on it and they need to sell it and they were basically just speculating on the prices. They thought it was a good investment and they wish they had listed it two to three years sooner uh than what's going on right now because now they're listing these houses that are outdated.

They used to sell like hotcakes back in uh 2020 2021 because there was just a limited supply due to so much demand because of the Federal Reserve in their ZERP policy, their zero interest rate policy basically moving mortgage rates down so much. So, but what's what's happening here? You can see this age distribution. This comes from the National Association of Realtors created with data wrapper and it it's the age distribution of home buyers and sellers by generation.

You can see that Gen Z is basically non-existent at this point. They're really not doing much. Younger millennials aren't doing very much. The older millennials are doing okay and they're they're transacting.

Gen Xers are doing okay. But really what's driving this market right now are the younger boomers, the older boomers and Gen Xers. And you can see that the sellers are primarily these younger boomers who are looking to maybe move closer to family. Their kids have uh left the house.

They're looking to downsize, things like that. And they're also the largest, those younger boomers are also the most number of buyers as well that from a percentage standpoint. So you can see that they make up these boomers make up, you know, almost 50% of the entire buying buying power. In a lot of cases, they're outperforming these younger home buyers that just literally cannot afford to get into the market.

Those prices are just too high. It's not that interest rates are, you know, high too high. They're actually interest rates are completely normal. Probably without the Fed's manipulation should be a percent or two higher.

So, you know, it's not an interest rate problem. It's we just the prices are too high and we need prices to come down. So, really, this is good long-term, but young people aren't having kids. Here's the demographic of the United States.

And part of that is because we just have insane housing costs. Like shelter cost is very expensive. The cost of child care is very expensive. And you can see that, you know, we have this widening here at the top generations and then at the bottom is starting to lessen and lessen and less.

And this is males versus females on each side. And you can see it's just less every single year being born. And this is going to have a demographic crisis here in the next 30 years because if you're thinking about buying a house right now, you're going to live in it for 30 years. Who's your next buyer going to be?

Well, it's going to probably be somebody in their 30s because they have to have so much income to save to be able to buy. Who knows where prices will be at that time? Hopefully a lot lower. But these younger generation, I mean, if we have population decreasing while we continue to build, obviously household formation will not happen.

And so it could cause a ton of chaos for the real estate market long term. My prediction is that we're going to see a crash. A crash is a 30% drop from the peak of October 2022. The demographics show that things are getting worse for the long term for real estate.

Now, young boomers are driving what's remaining of of the market. Look at this. The repeat buyers are 61 years old. All buyers at the the median home buyer age of all buyers is 56 years old.

If that is not a red flag for you, I don't know what is. And then you can see the first time home buyers went from age 29 in 1980s where people were able to afford a home to 38 years old now. So, I mean, you're just seeing, you know, a 9-year difference in such a short period of time. It's for first-time home buyers, it is brutal out there.

And this just because they're loaded up with debt. So, there's this conversation between these older boomers and the younger first-time home buyers, and they don't have two nickels to, you know, scrub together to be able to afford the repairs and the upgrades that need to be done to their house. If you're an older buyer looking to sell, you need to upgrade everything for the next generation to want to jump on your property and purchase it and pay the price that you want. It can't be outdated and have the repairs, too.

And that's a really important factor if you're an older generation. And if you're a young generation, look, you will have to negotiate like crazy if you want to get into this market right now. But my advice is I think prices are going to come down. It might be better to wait 2 to 3 years if you can and rent before you start buying because prices are expected to decline across the board.

You know, not just from me but from other people who are expecting that. Now look at this. Consumption is being driven primarily by these older generations. So US consumption share 55 plus years old as a percentage of total consumption.

You can see 65 year years old and uh 55 to 65 uh four years old as percentage of total consumption. I mean they are the ones who are driving the majority of consumption and that makes sense. They're using their stock portfolios and their pensions. The younger generations don't have much stock portfolio or uh or pension.

They don't have any pensions at all. I mean they're definitely not going to see social security. And so this income is flowing straight to these older generations who are then spending uh the money that they have coming in from their from their prior work and their guarantees. This is not going to be the case in years to come.

Look at this. You can see that it's projected that they're going to have the majority of consumption moving forward in and into the future into 20 uh basically the next 75 years. Now what's happening it's pretty clear the majority of wealth is going to the top people uh who already own assets and we're starting to see the effects of you know just this compounding and it's no different than what we're seeing in the US government debt as well. But the problem is the bottom 50% of households only own 2.5% of the wealth.

So the majority of the money is going to the people who own the investments who own the assets. Assets are just going crazy and skyrocketing and the bottom who's just working day in day out were not working at all just do not have any wealth and they're not benefiting from this economy. Now, of course, there's technology changes that could make their life better and things like that, but for the majority of them, they feel left behind. And this is why we have a lot of social strife in this country where people do not feel good about their economic circumstances.

It's because the data is true. I mean, they are literally getting left behind. So, let's dig into why that is. Why aren't they able to buy the houses from the boomers?

This rising unemployment, right? So, unemployment rate is starting to jump up a little bit. It looks like the unemployment is worse than what was previously projected. We had that crazy report 911,000 over the last year that were miscalculated and then the job openings are just falling from the 2022 levels as well.

So it's not looking good for the younger generations in ter um in terms of employment the layoffs are rising. So you can see this state layoff rates per thousand workers. Florida is on that list. That's where I am.

Virginia, Vermont, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Connecticut. So, we're actually seeing some of the Northeast also having these layoffs. Uh, but specifically, Florida is getting absolutely crushed with with the layoffs, and that's not a good thing. And the ultimate problem, and this is the horrible part about compounding, is the US consumers have never been this indebted.

So, that not only are younger folks, you know, not getting as much income as they thought they would, but they have more debt on their books that's preventing them from able to purchase from the older generations the houses that they already own. So, they're in a really tough spot. They just don't have the cash. They don't have the cash flow, and they're loaded up with debt.

And this is a problem because we're seeing credit card delinquencies tick higher. So, we're almost at the great financial crisis levels of of having issues here. And it's no surprise that this is happening. You see, the buy now pay later stuff start to pop up and people are extending as much as they possibly can their consumerism, which is just driving the economy.

And the young people aren't able to to pay their credit cards. There's also older people as well in that situation. But this is the percent of balance 90 plus days delinquent. This comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is just a terrifying chart.

If this is how it is now, when the stock market's doing really well, then I can only imagine what will happen when the market starts to turn over and job loss actually starts to occur. We're going to see this probably tick higher. Now, the consumer sentiment is now at its worst since the great financial crisis. Look at that, 55.4.

And so, it's been moving down and trending down ever since, you know, the 2020 time period. So, the people feel like this inflation that's going on is just totally putting them back. Most of their money, even if they had saved money for a house, it's going to their living expenses that have nearly doubled in value. And so, they're not able to save enough money to actually be able to purchase.

And this is really bad for the housing market because sentiment drives everything. Now look at this. This Gen Z is skipping meals and putting off doctor's visits just to pay their rent. And if you saw my last video, it's actually, you know, people are not paying their rent.

There's actually 2% increase in people who weren't paying their rent from just a couple months ago. And that is crazy. When you think about 2%, it doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more than a million people who are renters. And uh more than one in five, 22% of young renters report skipping meals completely to make their monthly payments.

22% have sold their belongings and 19 have delayed medical treatments. I see this all the time, especially with the health care costs dry going higher. People are just ignoring not getting health care or just ignoring it completely and they're just letting their problems roll because they just can't pay those premiums. And look, I mean, when you look at the state minimum wages, you look at Florida, I mean, you can't even buy a Jimmy John sandwich and a drink for $13, which is crazy.

So, I mean, the prices of everything just seems to go up and the minimum wage has stayed relatively low. This isn't commentary on whether we should have one or not a minimum wage, but it's just to show you, you know, young people that I mean, they need that floor. It It's really tough. I remember when I started out, I was at $625 for the job that I did, but at least you could actually buy some stuff with that 625, which was a good thing.

Now, how is this playing through, right? So, the consumer is strapped. Boomers are freaking out. They're withdrawing their listings.

They're doing price cuts. They're they're doing whatever they can to to get out of the market. And the stock market's still skyrocketing, right? So, there's this huge contrast.

I think once the stock market does take a dive, I think that'll actually pull together the entire picture that people are missing right now. But look at this. This is the closed sales compared to pre2020. This is what you really want.

You want to say in a normal market, how are we fairing versus a normal unmanipulated market like we had in the 2020 to 2022 time frame. And you can see here we're worse. We're 24.8% down in closed sales versus 2019 here in Jacksonville. You can see Las Vegas is getting absolutely crushed 42.3%.

Albuquerque, Charlotte, North Carolina 24.8% down as well. Phoenix is down 33. Uh and the Northwest is down 38%. So you you're looking at these huge uh metros and they're just doing way worse on at 30 30.9% worse than the 2019 levels.

And that by the way, if you were around in 2019, it was not a great year for real estate. And we were a little bit concerned going into the end of the year that we're already going into a recession and then once 2020 hit obviously the Fed stepped in to push everything up. Now what's happening is you know rates are coming down a little bit which is great for affordability but it's not enough. We need the prices to come down.

Look at this. This is the housing supply glut in the southern US. This is new homes in the south. It is almost at 2008 levels for new homes and it goes up every single month.

We are seeing these builders freak out, slash their prices. Now these builders are now competing with the boomers. So this is a crazy part of it. You have these builders who are offering you know buy down of interest rate to 3%.

And the boomers trying to compete with them and they have to you know it you're at six 6.3 6% in that range depending on your credit score. It's really hard. Why would a young person go buy an existing home that needs $50 $60,000 of upgrades and and at a 6.3% rate when they could go buy new construction, it's completely brand new. Maybe it's not the location that they want, but they get to work from home for a couple days.

So, I mean, this is a massive change in the way things are happening, but still, even the new homes are not doing well and they're not selling very well. And I don't think there's any end in sight. The builders continue to build because they've got a two-year runway where they start the project, they need to finish it. They have the construction crews lined up and the lending lined up.

They have to finish their projects. And so we're seeing them continue to build even though it seems like a crazy time to build. And prices are already coming down. Look at this in Florida.

You can see that just on the median list listing price. We're at a new cycle low right now of two uh 429,900. Now, if you're looking at that from a mortgage payment, I mean, it is still way too much and it's way better to rent in a lot of cases than to buy at this moment. You want to do the analysis.

If you need to reach out, we're more than happy to do the analysis for you. If you're looking to buy in Florida, I can give you a little rental calculator. So, you can drop me an email below. My email's in the description below.

And we'd love to help you out because it is an important conversation. Buyers have options. And so, if you're a boomer listening to this and and you're frustrated with the younger generations not being willing to pay the price that you want for your house, they could rent that same house for $700, $800 less than if they were buying it and not have to worry about any of the repairs. Now, of course, there's pros of owning real estate, but there's also pros of renting real estate and the flexibility that comes along with that.

So, this is another reason why I think that prices will come down is just because buyers are smart, buyers are savvy, they do their research, and they'll figure out that there's other ways, especially even doubling up on houses and and going in on them together and and living, you know, multiple people in one house. I think that's something that we'll continue to see. And by the way, there's a lot more risk that's coming down the line that could break. This is uh regarding multif family.

This is serious delinquency rates of multif family. It's going to be a massive problem over the next 12 to 18 months because the rates have come up so fast. And these multif family mortgages are already worse than the great financial crisis. That'll absolutely come through.

And of course, there were tons of syndicators. So private real estate fundraising that were that were out there a number of funds that were just raising you know so much money to be able to buy real estate and turn it into investment push rents higher push prices higher and obviously that peaked in 2022 and has just dropped dramatically once the rates came up. So this was simply the factor of low rates with the Fed incentivizing people to buy real estate and just sit on it. And unfortunately, if you were the buyer in 22, 23, or 24, you're kind of getting stuck holding the bag here if you went really big and bought wrong and didn't do your underwriting correctly.

This comes from pitchbook pitchbook data as of March 31st, 2025. But I thought it was an interesting chart because these real estate syndicators are, you know, you don't even get updates from them anymore. They've completely disappeared. And hopefully, if they personally guaranteed a lot of the stuff that they bought in these years, they're probably going bankrupt.

Now, what is really happening is like should you continue to buy real estate moving forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I can tell you I'm not because 80% of house appreciation, this is from John Wake, who's a analyst, appreciation since 1990 was due to falling interest rates. Now, I don't think it's exactly 80%, it's probably up there. There's a lot of other estimates like Goldman Sachs, this is like 50 to 60%.

But it's a lot. Okay, so we've had falling interest rates for basically 40 years, you know, from 15% all the way basically near zero. And that has caused the payment because we live in a payment economy, the payment to go down drastically. So pe more and more people could bid up the prices of real estate.

And so what happens when you see that inflection point and rates start to move up? And I don't think that rates will come down in the future dramatically. Maybe temporarily when you have job loss in a recession, but ultimately I think long term we saw the pivot point and we think long term interest rates will move up. Why is that?

Because we're we're already seeing tons of losses. This is for treasuries mostly. This is for banks. This is unrealized losses for uh held to secure uh maturity securities like treasuries and available for sale securities.

And this is just because the reversal of interest rates um and this is already held held by banks. And so you can see it's already way worse than the great financial crisis. And it's just because these banks are holding tons of treasuries and rates went up and the value of their treasuries just dropped. And so we are in a very interesting time period where we're just loading up with debt.

We're loading up with debt as a country. This is the surplus deficit for August 2025. You can see that the deficit here is 345 billion. Our debt cycle as a nation continues to get more risky.

When our interest rates go up on our treasuries, the mortgage back securities are to follow. It just becomes more of risky of a country to invest in. And you can see if this continues on for some period, we are going to be out of luck. And honestly, the there's no way back from this at this point.

I really think that we are in a really serious debt crisis here. You can see that the interest expense on public debt outstanding. And my point to bring all this up is that do you think interest rates could bail us out in this market and bail the boomers out? And you know the the answer is no.

I think actually interest rates will come up and I think prices will come down regardless of of temporary ups and downs in the market just because the amount of debt outstanding between the consumer and the government. It just puts us as a higher credit risk and that you know the world will have to adjust for us being that higher credit risk. And eventually as we lose our financial footing, I do think that prices will come down. You can see obviously the dollar decline is you know 26.4% decline in the last 10 years is absolutely insane.

And you can see the interest expense on our public debt is is out of control as well. And so at some point the bond market will correct and we will have a massive crisis and this will this will really impact us. So what do you think? We'd love to hear from you.

Can can the market survive another 18 months? Can the real estate market survive another 18 months? What do you think about the stock market? Obviously, it's at record highs right now.

Will the government try to step in and save the day in housing? Love to hear what you think. Typically, they do. They step in for these type of uh crisis, even though it's crazy to do it during an all-time high, but it is what it is.

And then, will the bond markets eventually crack under the weight of all this debt that our government is spending? Love to hear what you're talking about. Put a comment below in the notes. And if you have any questions, feel free to reach out.

My information is below. And as always, you can follow my Substack. I put out information twice a week and I talk about things on my Substack that I can't talk about here on YouTube. Love to hear love to see what you think about the information I'm putting out here.

I'll talk to you soon. Thanks so much.