Your Home Could Be Worth 30% Less Soon. The Data Doesn't Lie

Each week, more housing data comes out and it shows that consumers are completely priced out of housing and the government and the media are not making it any better. Let's dig into why the consumer is so priced out and why prices in the United States next year are likely to go down in some areas could go down pretty significantly in a short period of time just because inventory is stacking up. If you're a seller, you're going to want to hear this information. And if you're a buyer, may be time to do a little bit deeper research on your market.

And if you're an investor, you got to be really careful and underwrite to the worst case scenario in this type of environment. So, let's dig in. First thing is that this is an absolutely insane chart. If you don't know that we're in an affordability crisis right now, it's it's everywhere on all assets.

The government is not making it better. They're actually making it worse on a day-to-day basis. I know inflation came out at 3%. When you look at the CPI charts, that is just insanity.

Uh it's just basically a line that's going vertical at this point because of the compounding nature u of longterm returns. It just continues to compound. So 3% may not seem like a lot to many people from a numerical standpoint, but we really feel it on our pocketbooks when prices are already so elevated. So here's how much money Americans need to afford a house.

This comes from the reventure and it shows that right after 2021 there's this massive spike because of the Fed increasing interest rates in March of 2022 and just boom, right? This is how much money you need to make in order to to buy a house. It's 111,000. I see other statistics out there being 120 $130,000.

I don't know about you in Florida, but the majority of wages here, you're lucky to get 60 to $80,000 in a normal paying job. So that means you need two incomes or help from family. It is brutal out there if you're looking to buy a house. And so it's no wonder that buyers are very careful on buying their house.

They're cancelling house contracts. If it's not the perfect house, they're not buying. Sure, you're getting tons of mortgage applications, but that's not translating into actually purchasing a home. They're being careful because they know that this is a really unaffordable time to buy a house.

And it shows here, this is a great data as well, median American household needs a $28,000 raise to afford a home. I don't know about you, I haven't met a lot of people who are getting raises uh right now just from across the board. But you can see 4,000 is the median income and they need 111 according to this chart. I think it's actually more than and keep in mind a lot of Americans have tons of debt, okay?

So they're loaded up with especially the next generation of home buyers. They have tons of student loans. They have car loans. They have credit card loans.

And it is really hard for them to save. And the majority of them, about 40% of their income goes to either a mortgage payment or a rent payment in some form. And then, of course, they have taxes on top of that. It is really hard for people to save money and scrape by and get to the next level.

And you want to keep listening to this video because you're going to learn different perspectives what you can do based on the data that's that's coming out. Now, look at this chart. This is completely priced out. 67.7% of people are living paycheck to paycheck.

This comes from Arbor Data Science um from June 2023 to June 2025. This is unbelievable. It actually looks like it moved up a little bit um over the last few years. But I mean, when you have about 70% of your economy that living paycheck to paycheck and they don't have savings or anything like that, it's really hard to drive the economy forward.

Now, there's a lot of reports out there that show that the top 10% of consumers that from an income earning perspective are responsible now for 50% of consumption. That is an astounding data point and I think that we should all be concerned about that, right? The middle class is getting hollowed away. More of the money is going to the top, you know, 1 to 10% of income earners.

And look, I love capitalism. I've got no problem with that happening. But if the middle class starts to get hollowed away and you start seeing this disparity between the have and the have nots, it's and they can't even pay for their own shelter costs, the the country is going to have some serious problems. Looking from a large larger big picture view, this is not good for America long term and that's what we care about here and it's definitely not good for the next generation.

The next generation is completely priced out. So what's really happening here, right? So, the Federal Reserve, they have a dual mandate for employment and inflation. Their inflation targets 2%.

Apparently, they don't even care about that anymore. Now, I guess it's 3%. And they're still lowering interest rates even though they have 3% inflation, which is crazy to me. But they're, this is what's basically happened.

They continue to print money. Congress continues to spend money, stimulate the economy. There's no real actual value being created. It's just more money into the system.

It pushes up asset prices which makes wealthy people even wealthier and then the middle class basically just loses their purchasing power due to inflation. And this is like the perfect chart, right? So, and that's the inflation in the middle that's just screwing over the middle class and it's just causing a ton of problems and they just don't seem to want to fix it. Ideally, we would have a reset.

The Fed would stop getting into everybody's business. The Congress and the government, the president would stop getting into everybody's business, right? Smaller government in a lot of cases is much better for most things. Uh but it's going the other way.

We're getting a bigger government. We just surpassed $ 38 trillion in debt, which is crazy. It's going to continue to compound. It's actually past the point of basically no return where we're going to eventually have a debt crisis this c country and rates will will spike.

And I think that's what's going to have to happen for asset prices to come down. We don't know when that'll be or what will cause it, but it's unsustainable at this point where basically 20 to 25% of every dollar that comes in is going to pay the interest on the debt, not pay down the debt, the interest on the debt. And this is what crushes the middle class when you have uh expansion of the money supply so quickly. And it's just because the Fed continues to to print money and and Congress continues to to spend money and it's a huge problem for the middle class.

This is what's really happening. So look at this. There's Scott Bessant right there. In the midst of the federal shutdown, the US government gross national debt surpassed 38 trillion.

I believe they've added 2 trillion this year is my understanding. A record number that highlights the accelerated accumulation of debt on America's balance sheet. And this is the fastest accumulation outside of the 2020 2021 period, which is mind-boggling. So look, why are we cutting interest rates?

Here's the CPI uh core goods excluding autos, you know, inflation report. You can see that inflation uh came down after the rate increases in 21, right? So we had this spike, we had a little delay period and then inflation started coming down and then we see it continue to start now moving up. A lot of this is tariffs.

A lot of this is the Fed started cutting the rates again and they're planning on cutting rates again this month which is insane to me. So it's going to be a really interesting time to see what the Fed decides to do. I know there's a lot of political pressure for them to do that. I I don't think this is the right decision and I think it's irresponsible of the government regarding just destroying their middle their own middle class to just prop up asset values as high as humanly possible.

Why are we rate cutting into a market where we have all-time highs for stock market, all-time highs for gold, all-time highs for crypto? You know, all of these assets are already all-time highs. Why why would we cut rates? We actually in housing prices need to come down especially.

It doesn't make sense to me why we would continue to move assets from the middle class in the lower class up to the to the people who own the majority of assets when we actually need asset values to come down. So good inflate and this is just temporary right to reset to give the next generation an opportunity to get in and build their wealth. Goods inflation trended higher in September. This comes from the BLS.

You can see that it went up as well. So, you know, look, we can look we can cut inflation from a bunch of different points of view, but look, tariffs are impacting inflation numbers and the reality is and Goldman Sachs says this is 70% of the cost of tariffs will be passed on to the consumer and I know there's a lot of arguments about that though every single article from the top economists that come out. Now, I don't believe every single economist, but I can tell you the guys at Goldman, I used to intern there, these people are absolutely brilliant. They really know what they're talking about.

They're not going to put out data that doesn't support their view and they're not going to send it out to their clients and everybody if it doesn't support their view. Obviously, the government will just make up whatever data they need to spin their narrative and try to convince you that that is not the case. But it's basically a national sales tax. Okay?

So, that's why you're going to see uh the price of goods basically go up and they're going to collect a little sales tax on that. Basically, uh where are the sellers where are there more sellers and buyers, right? The market, you know, so consumers are are priced out, but where are people starting to see more pain and where are people pretty much okay at this point and I think it will spread across the whole United States over the next 12 months here. U so this comes from you can see at the bottom right and I I like this chart but I wasn't really able to get a lot of the data behind it but it comes from Business Insider.

So this is what the quote says. Um, home sellers in the lower half of the US, also known as the Sunb Belt, are the most desperate in the country. In Denver, Charlotte, Jacksonville, which is where I am, and a smattering of other Sunb Belt markets, more than half of single family homes are for sale, have seen a price cut. This is definitely true.

This is Parcel Labs data shows. So, you can see the red here. This is where you're starting to see a lot of the distress and price cuts and how motivated they are to sell. So, this is high higher values indicate a greater homeowner urgency to sell, especially South Florida.

Jacksonville is one of the worst in the country. The areas that are most distressed are these new construction communities and someone bought it maybe 22, 23, 24 and now the builder is just slashing the prices and they're phase one, phase two and those homeowners who are trying to sell when they bought that vintage basically they're underwater and they have to do a short sale. It's depressing the entire community and I can tell you the builder completely overbuilt in specific areas. A lot of these areas that are in the red are where the builder's overbuilt and it's it's brutal and you can see that in Texas and you can see that in Florida specifically where the majority of the the pain is currently happening.

So there are motivated sellers and there's a lack of buyers. We're seeing the less migration from the north to the south. We're actually seeing a lot of people who moved here during those boom years actually start to move back as they call they call people back to work um work from office or they're getting laid off because they're not at the office and that is also a factor that is playing into this. Now this just across the board this is from resi club estimated number of US home buyers and sellers actively in the housing market from Redfin.

There's now a half million more sellers than buyers across the board in the United States. And in uh there's articles out there saying, you know, in Jacksonville even there's 135% more sellers than buyers at this point in the market. And so buyers intuitively understand that this is not a good time to buy. They need to negotiate.

They need to be careful. They need a really great real estate agent to guide them through the process. If they buy in the wrong neighborhood, they could get stuck there for a long period of time. So, and it's pretty obvious, right?

When you log into Zillow and freaking tons of listings available, you drive around your neighborhood and there's tons of listings available, empty houses. Obviously, you're not going to be so urgently making an offer. You're going to make lowball offers until a seller capitulates and takes your offer. This comes from Reenture Florida and Texas housing inventory surge.

So, you can see here on the red line that I mean, it's just skyrocketing the inventory. And in the Northeast, obviously, it's near lows. It's great for the Northeast because they didn't overbuild in a lot of those areas. Now, I will say I do think the Northeast will start to be impacted in by Q2 of next year.

So, we'll we'll revisit that and see what happens there. But right now, the main factor that I'm focusing on is Florida and Texas where we are seeing kind of an extreme situation. Look at that from 22, you know, up to today it's 60 70,000 listings in the south basically all the way up to, you know, 270K. I mean, that is that is very very quick in such a short period of time and we'll continue moving forward unless we see a significant price decrease that creates the affordability that brings in the next wave of buyers.

So, here's where the strongest buyers market is. So, if you're a buyer, this is good for you. Look, Austin, Texas. Percent percent by which sellers un outnumbered buyers.

So, a lot of sellers. Austin, Texas is one. Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Miami, Nashville, Nashville's got issues. Uh, San Antonio, Dallas, Jacksonville, where I am, Las Vegas, and across the board, it's 36.7%.

So, we're we're now a buyer market across the US. Um, and it looks like there's certain areas that are just really getting depressed. And again, it's the areas that they overbuilt uh from the builders, you know, right? They're speculators.

They come in, they try to get the prices as high as humanly possible. The next wave of buyers do like, you know, the young buyers, they do like these new construction communities. They like the rate buy downs, all this kind of stuff, the incentives, they don't want to have to repair their house. I totally understand it.

But they built way too many of them and they sold them for too high of a price. Um, and look, sales because prices are too high and buyers, the regular buyer can't afford it. Uh the number of existing home sales are just dragging around along the bottom these last few years and so we'll probably get an idea of direction of this moving forward. I hope it's the bottom for now.

I do think you know people do need to move and get into new housing inventory but we could be dragging along the bottom here for a very long time and it's just as bad as today. It doesn't feel like it but it is. It's just as bad as today as it was in 089 in terms of number of sales for existing home inventory. And look, consumers are just getting crushed.

I I feel horrible for the average consumer today. They need help, especially on the healthcare side. If you guys saw this stuff on X or anywhere else in the news, the health insurance premiums are insane already. You can see from 1999, it went from 6K for your annual premium to 27K.

Uh, and that's a 365% increase since 1999. 6.1% per year, but CPI inflation is only 2.6% per year. It's crazy to me that we have so much health insurance premium being added. However, we have so much technology that's come in to try to make things more efficient and cheaper.

So, I mean, this is just probably grift from middlemen that probably control the system and it needs to be fixed. I don't know about you, when you get your health insurance bill, it's like impossible to decode and then if you try to argue with them, they're not going to work with you and they just put you in a little loop where you can never communicate with anybody and solve it. That's been my personal experience until you basically have to threaten to sue them and you might actually have to do that. It's it's unfortunate, but these insurance companies are out of control.

It's really horrible to see this uh happen to just regular consumers when they already have such a large debt burden and other cost burdens to just be able to live, right? So, we're talking about shelter and health insurance. These are like basic things that every human needs to have. Least catastrophic insurance and this is on top of, you know, you also have to pay your deductible.

And a lot of these deductibles are, you know, 6 to 12k per person. Usually is like a family plan where there's a family deductible. But still, it is just brutal out there for the consumers cuz they have to pay the premiums and the deductibles. Um, and in a lot of cases, it's really a lot cheaper to do cash pay.

So, that's my rant on I I I hate the insurance companies. I hate what they're doing to the average American. I think it's wrong. And they have like record billion dollar profits year after year.

There's something seriously wrong. If you hate insurance, too, let me know. I I read do a lot of research on that. It's not something I talk about, but it is impacting the housing market just like how's homeowners insurance is impacting it.

Taxes and because it's pulling dollars out of the consumer uh and it's just pushing, you know, it's just like money they can't use to go purchase a house and start their life. And so the average cost of family, again, insurance plan, this came out from the Wall Street Journal, is now 27,000. So this is getting out there. People are really upset about it and it's about to get a lot worse, honestly.

So look, because consumers can't afford to buy a house and the people who are trading houses between each other are usually in an older generation already own. They're selling a house, then they're buying a house. We're actually seeing what's happening as a lockin effect. So, only 11% moved in 2024.

That's the lowest mobility rate on record. Okay? So, people are not moving between their houses. You can see there's different areas that did move a little bit more than other areas.

You can see Florida's 12.8 in in Texas. But this is a problem because what's happening is if you already owned a house and you refinanced at a 2% 3% rate, why would you sell that house, pull your equity out and then have to buy another house and pay six 6.5% interest rate? I mean, your payment you might get less house and actually be paying more and then you got all those benefits from homesteading your property from tax perspective and now you're just re-upping and so you have higher taxes as well. So I understand why this is happening.

A lot of people are just staying put because their low rate locked them into that area. I don't think this is good that people feel like they can't move because of an affordability issue. I think people should be able to move where they want. You know, I wish that consumers could assume each other's loans.

That would be a huge benefit. That would create a ton more mobility between people where they can make out private plans where you can keep that low interest rate. But that's generally only the case for FHA and VA loans. Uh so look, this is probably going to continue.

This is part of the reason why existing home sales are just grinding along the bottom is because the people who already own are just locked into their low rate. And look, for the people who do own, the typical cost of owning is much higher. So typical monthly costs for US homeowners, home ownership costs uh continue to rise even for those without a mortgage, right? So those people who are just paying taxes and insurance fueled by rising insurance taxes and other expenses.

Even repair expenses are up 52% since 2020. So everything's up. Insurance is up 72%. The price of purchasing a home is up more than 50% since 2020 in a lot of areas.

And so this is continues to be an issue. And then also the HOAs, I mean, I don't know, you tell me, is your HOA increasing their fees? They're because they have to because of the repair costs that are going up. So again, homeowners are getting stretched too.

The consumer is getting stretched and it's making it really difficult for people to transact and a lot of credit scores especially among the young are starting to fall. So we're seeing a lot of issues. So I'm setting the backdrop for you on this because I want you to understand that the ne who is the next buyer of the houses. It has to be the young generation or people selling their house and moving and buying a house.

The next generation is completely locked out. They do not have the money to be able to purchase these houses at today's price and today's mortgage rate. So that's why you're going to see things really slow down and prices have to come down to a level because I don't think wages are going to start moving up the way that we that we would hope to to be able to offset this. So the only other factor is that the prices have to come down over time and you're going to see us be just by supply and demand.

You just saw the charts on supply when supply skyrockets, it just takes a matter of time, three or four or five years for prices to correct down to a normal market, assuming the government doesn't step in. And the government has to choose between letting the young generation get into the market or propping up the house for the boomers and older. And so I think they will prop up the houses for the boomers and older to some extent, but some areas they're just not going to be able to save the market. So, look, if you are a home, if you're a buyer and you want to buy a house, the best time to buy a house is October, November, sometimes September if you're looking to buy new construction.

But be very careful. You need to negotiate on price, too, not just on the interest rate because once you lock that interest rate in, the next person who buys your house is not going to have that interest rate. It's likely going to be higher. Um, and so October is the time frame that the builders typically close their books, right?

So, they have to do their annual reporting, especially for large public builders. They want to get as many sales on their book before they have to do that reporting and this causes them to basically fire sale some of their inventory. So you can be a buyer and take advantage of of the time of year and that's something that's really important. So 38% of builders reported cutting prices in October.

The shares alternated between 37 39% since June. On average, the reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5%. I can tell you locally they're dropping stuff by 20%. And you can get the low rate.

So, you need both. You need to get the lower price and the lower rate to just get a cushion for you, a little bit of a buffer. So, that way if you do want to live there, and by the way, it cost 6% to buy on the way in just on transaction cost. Cost about 6% on the way out.

So, you need to expect about a 12% increase in the price of your home. And we're in a falling market in many of these areas of new construction. So, you need to stay in this house for like 10 plus years to break even. Of course, it is better than renting when you do the math, but you do have repair costs and other costs like that.

So, run the numbers. If you need help, reach out. But you do need to do the analysis of, hey, would it be better for me to rent and kind of wait for prices to stall out a little bit more than to buy right now? Or do I really is it a possibility for me to really negotiate with the builder really powerfully so I can get my price and my rate so low that I'm comfortable with staying here for a decade?

And this is definitely the spot that I want to be and there's no chance of me moving because what we see is people get trapped if they buy a new construction house they have to sell in two years they're underwater. Okay, so that's my concern for young people buying today is in the new construction versus going to like an existing area. Yeah, you're going to have to do a little bit maintenance. You're going to have to do a little bit more upgrades, but those existing areas, they usually hold up in price better because they're not near new construction where there's just tons more supply coming on.

Uh so you do have to really think about that. So, look, there's another phenomenon that's out there right now. It's called uh build to rent. And it is there's a ton of red flags on this because there's a lot of what's called an accidental landlord.

So, when a seller can't sell their house, they turn around, they say, "Can I rent it?" And they bring it on as rental inventory. Well, not only that, but these new construction communities that aren't selling, there's hedge funds buying up the entire community and turning them into rentals. So now we're just having this ton of rental supply hitting the market. At the same time, because we're seeing rents decrease here in Jacksonville, 10, 20, 15%, you know, in a very short period of time because the inventory coming on is so high and it's taking longer for the units to rent.

It can be 3 to four months now versus just a few weeks. So there's tons of vacancy. So these guys are hurting. They've started to slow down on their deliveries.

But you can see just how many properties are coming up which is the annual US single family build to rent deliveries. This comes from Megan Malas. So it kind of shares a little bit of the of the data but it is I think this is a bad investment. Personally I think that if you're I've talked to people who have bought their build to rent in 22 23 and 24 they're underwater in some cases $100,000 and they got the low rate buy down.

I mean, they're going to have to reduce the price of their rental significantly. The other thing that they miss is there are costs with the turn on the rentals. Yes, it's new construction, but there some renters are hard on the house, right? So, you're going to have to repaint it.

You're going to have to clean it, all this other stuff. And people don't calculate in the costs, uh, the carrying cost. The only good thing about it is definitely insurance is lower. Um your taxes unfortunately a little bit higher because it is an investment property so you don't get the homestead exemption but the fact that there's so much inventory coming on between the build to rent communities and then on top of that the accidental landlords that are popping up it's really tough to be a landlord right now in specific areas uh in the sunb belt and this is starting to show up rights hurting more rentals are coming many Americans don't qualify to buy so they're getting pushed into these rentals they can't buy because they have such high debt levels but the single family rent growth just hit the lowest level in 15 years is what a new report found.

Um, rents for single family rental homes just rose 1.4% in August compared with the year before. Dallas saw a decline. I think this data is definitely behind. The news is usually really behind, but what we're seeing on the ground is a lot more, you know, decrease.

I know in Austin, we're talking to my buddies there, rents are down about 20%. It's uh I think the media again is just behind six to eight months on on most things. This also shows that apartments are going negative. Uh US department notch weakest Q3 for went rent rent since 2009.

So again, there's no crisis that's happening right now. We're in a little bit of a correction here in the north in the south. We could head towards a crash if things if there's something that comes up that really spikes the market, but we're starting to see the distress already show up. So we're seeing apartments actually go negative across the board.

And this is a terrifying chart. Late payments on rent are actually up 2%. And this is terrifying because that means that millions of people have stopped or are late on their rent just within a very short period of time in this like basically mid 2024 to to today. And that% may not seem like a lot, but it's millions of people who are late on their payments, right?

So they're they're missing their car loans, they're getting repoed, they're missing their credit card with credit card delinquencies skyrocketing, everything. They're even now just being late on their rent. So that is a huge indication that we're in a consumer affordability crisis. And this chart just blows me away.

This kind of shows the US home ownership rate by birth decade. So you can kind of see who who is who owns the assets and what is the next generational co cohort doing and how far behind they are. So US home ownership by birth rate decade by current age of individual. You can see that young people on that yellow line born in the 1990s and the 2000s their home ownership rate is going to be tremendously lower than people who were born in the 40s50s60s7s at the same time.

Like that's what the chart kind of looks like. It looks like they're going to be under 20 30%. So basically it's possible you could see 20 to 30% of the next generations be com basically completely priced out due to this affordability crisis of getting in on home ownership. Well, look, if people don't buy houses and have the home ownership, then they don't have that automatic piggy bank that's saving for them every single month in what that means is like in 30 years, they're not going to have a house that's paid off free and clear and they're going to be able to live out their golden years.

So, these people are going to be struggling for the majority of their life if they don't get in on the housing market in a lot of ways, right? It's not saying you should go out and buy now, but it's actually one of the worst times to buy, but you need to be really careful. And this affordability crisis is like absolutely pricing out the next generation of home buyers. And again, I think it's going to get actually worse going into the future because it depending on what the government decides to do and who they decide to to bail out.

Young boomers are currently driving what remains of the market, right? Boomers 61 years and older. You can see that the the sellers here in the dark red are majority young boomers and then the buyers are also boomers. So, it's basically young boomers trading the houses back and forth to each other.

You have a a bunch of Gen Xers for sure, older millennials, um, younger millennials are these, you know, and Gen Z are are basically completely priced out. So, it's p basically people who already own real estate. They they sell their real estate and they go buy they downsize or upsize or relocate and you're family and things like that is usually what happens. There's a huge demographic shift in the United States.

People aren't having as many kids because it is so expensive. So, we're likely not going to see a ton of uh, you know, in 30 years from now, you're going to be seeing like a lot of it's going to look similar to this, but like more exaggerated because people aren't having kids. There's not going to be as many people to buy houses in those younger in the younger generations, unfortunately. This is a great chart that just shows, you know, the affordability crisis in in one one spot.

Repeat buyers are 61 years old for their median home buyer age. All buyers are 56 years old, up from 31 years old. So, it's almost more than two decades that people people are putting off their home buying. First-time home buyers is is a basically a decade later because they have to save money and they have so much so many expenses and debt that they have to pay off and that stops them, you know, young people from having a family.

Then they don't have a family that, you know, or they they don't buy a house, they don't have kids. That causes a bunch of issues and it all comes back to this affordability crisis that we have and it will have long-term consequences in the next 30 years. I don't think the politicians are thinking about this, but something that I really care about because people in my demographic, I'm 34 years old, we are seeing, you know, they're having a hard time just pinching two nickels together to make things happen. They can't even go out to restaurants, uh, sit down restaurant because they don't have the money to pay the tip.

I mean, it is tough out there for a lot of people. So look, I want to know from you part of you know after seeing this data and you understand the fact of a bubble because we are in a bubble the Fed it's a Fed induced bubble where they lowered rates the zero interest rate policy for a very long period of time too long in my opinion and it pushed asset prices to a huge level they're cutting rates which are trying to move things continue to move move them up but at some point I think there will be an event that happens in the market maybe it's the 10-year Treasury spikes because people are uncomfortable able with the US debt burden and then it'll kind of crack the rest of the market. Where where do you think we are in this when you look at the chart it's we're definitely past the new in some cases I'm still meeting a lot of people who are delusional so we see the delusion we see and then people starting to come down and then they're denying I I have had a lot of denial conversations like oh things are still great and you look it's like hey look at the data the data does not support any of that and then you see a little bounce and then you're like oh it's just a little correction it's not anything big and then and then something happens so where do you think that we are in the phase are we in the mania phase phase which I think we had from 2020 basically to 2022 uh late 2022 and then I think afterwards we're in the blowoff phase. So I think that we're currently in denial and I think that it this is this is coming now.

How far and how long it takes to come down I don't know. I have um an idea based on what history has has taught us previously and I think that we're going to see a drop of in in the south specifically. I can't say much about the north, but in the south, we're definitely going to see my opinion in Florida, we could we could see a 30% drop from the peak in in October 2022. That's what my models say, especially if rates go up instead of down.

Even if rates go down another percent, my base case is basically, you know, the math is the math. Um, and look, we're starting to see the employment market start to crack, especially with the rise of AI and other factors. Uh I know we're supposed to bring back manufacturing to the United States, but the manufacturing jobs are actually slowing down when you look at the numbers. So every modern recession has been preceded by rising unemployment and falling job openings.

You can see the job openings in the blue line have just totally cratered and unemployment rate is just starting to move up. So this is an indicator we could be headed into a consumer recession. The car market on the repossessions are are starting to show up, right? So people aren't paying their car payments.

Um and this is really bad what they're projecting. Consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. I mean, every chart basically is telling us the same thing that the consumer is super stressed out. They're not paying their bills and the consumer has had so much debt, more debt than they've ever had previously.

So, they're having a really hard time even just paying the interest on their debt. Credit card delinquencies are starting to move up to the levels that we saw at the great financial crisis. These will continue to move up as people are are completely priced out. I hear people still are buying stuff on Cara, which is really unfortunate.

They're buying like food basically, and they're going to be paying like $40 in interest on buying a burrito at Chipotle. I mean, it's it's insane uh what we're seeing here. So, look, I want to hear from you. Where are we in this market?

Where are you located? And what are you seeing happening? Your specific market on the ground for real estate? Let us know.

As always, I have a Substack that I talk about things I can't talk about here on YouTube. So, yeah, I put that in the notes if you want to go and subscribe. Think big, question everything. Thank you all for watching.

Love to hear from you. Tell me what you're seeing on the ground.