Momentum Research · Market data
Data Analysis

Florida's housing market split in two this year. The state average hides a 17-point gap.

Statewide, the median closed sale price is up 1.8%. Underneath that number, the Atlantic coast is running high single digits while southwest Florida and the Panhandle are flat or falling.

Jon Brooks

Florida's median closed sale price was $424,685 in July, up 1.8% from a year earlier.

That number is close to useless.

Underneath it, West Palm Beach is up 10.7% and Punta Gorda is down 6.3%, a seventeen-point spread between two markets in the same state, in the same month, under the same mortgage rates. Fort Lauderdale is up 8.5%. Panama City is down 3.0%. Orlando, the market most people would name if you asked them to picture Florida real estate, is down 0.7%.

We computed this from our own records: 23,846 closed residential sales in July across nineteen Florida markets, drawn from eleven multiple listing services we license directly, measured against the same markets a year earlier.

The split is geographic, and it is clean

Every market on the southeast Atlantic coast rose more than 5%: West Palm Beach 10.7% (2,280 closed sales), Fort Lauderdale 8.5% (2,218), the Treasure Coast 6.0% (996), Miami-Dade 5.5% (441). Every market on the southwest Gulf coast was flat or negative: Fort Myers exactly 0.0% (1,311), Punta Gorda down 6.3%. Naples is the exception at 4.4%, and Naples is not really the same market as the counties north of it.

The Panhandle splits too. Destin-Walton is up 5.6%. Panama City, ninety minutes west, is down 3.0%.

One caution on the sharpest number in that paragraph. Punta Gorda's 6.3% decline rests on 77 closed sales in Charlotte County, above our publication floor of 25, but thin enough that a single month should not be read as a trend. It is also the market where our median sits furthest above Zillow's independent county index, by 11%. Treat it as the direction of travel, not a precise figure.

What we can say about why, and what we can't

The obvious candidate is insurance and storm exposure. Southwest Florida absorbed Hurricane Ian in 2022 and the Gulf coast has carried the sharpest premium increases since. That is a reasonable hypothesis and we are not going to assert it from price data alone. Price series cannot tell you what caused a price. What they can tell you is where to look, and they are pointing at the Gulf.

There is a second pattern in the data that is harder to explain away.

Days on market fell almost everywhere

Seventeen of twenty markets sold faster than a year ago. Statewide, the median home went under contract six days quicker, 47 days versus 53. That is not what a weakening market normally looks like.

The two facts sit together uncomfortably. In Punta Gorda, prices are down 6.3% and homes are selling twenty days faster than last year. In the Florida Keys, days on market fell by thirty. Falling prices with accelerating sales is the signature of sellers meeting the market rather than buyers walking away, sellers cutting to a number that clears, and clearing.

That reading is an inference, not a finding. What would confirm it is a rising share of listings with price reductions in exactly those markets. That series now runs on every one of our market data pages, and it is the next thing we will publish against.

One market is weak on both measures

Panama City is the only Florida market in our data where prices fell and homes took longer to sell, down 3.0%, with days on market up sixteen, on 360 closed sales. Everywhere else that prices fell, they at least sold faster. Bay County is the single weakest housing market in the state on this reading, and it is not close.

What this means if you own a home in Florida

The statewide number is not about you. If someone quotes you "Florida home prices are up almost 2%" they are describing an average of two markets moving in opposite directions, and it will not tell you what your house is worth in either one.

The number that matters is your county, and the second number that matters is how fast homes like yours are actually going under contract. In most of Florida right now, that second number is improving even where the first one is not.

Method

Monthly medians of closed residential sales, computed by Momentum Research from MLS market-mix aggregates licensed by Momentum Realty across eleven Florida multiple listing services. July 2026 is the latest complete month; August is excluded rather than plotted short. County-months with fewer than 25 closed sales are dropped. Multi-county markets and the Florida figure are an n-weighted average of county medians, which approximates a pooled median but is not one. Year-over-year comparisons use the same feed and the same counties in both periods. Series for the Florida Gulf Coast, MIAMI, Central Panhandle, Florida Keys and Emerald Coast feeds were first built on August 16, 2026, and were checked against Zillow's independent county index before publication; their year-over-year change correlated with that index at r = +0.73 to +0.89, at or above the range of our longest-running feeds. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source.

Sources and attribution

Based on information from the multiple listing services below for the period July 2025 through July 2026. Per-feed attribution is not co-mingled; each figure carries the attribution of the feed it came from.

West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Treasure Coast: All listings featuring the BMLS logo are provided by BeachesMLS, Inc. This information is not verified for authenticity or accuracy and is not guaranteed. Copyright © 2026 BeachesMLS, Inc.

Miami-Dade: Listing information provided by the Southeast Florida MLS (SEFMLS) / MIAMI Association of REALTORS(R). Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Naples, Fort Myers, Punta Gorda: Listing information provided by the Florida Gulf Coast Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Destin-Walton: Listing data provided by the Emerald Coast Association of REALTORS®. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Florida Keys: Listing data provided by Florida Keys MLS, Inc. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Orlando: Listings courtesy of Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID.

Panama City: Listing information provided by the Central Panhandle Association of REALTORS®. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Jacksonville: Source: Data provided by realMLS.

Space Coast: Listing data provided by the Space Coast Multiple Listing Service. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.

Pensacola: Copyright© 2026 by the Multiple Listing Service of the Pensacola Association of REALTORS® This information is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Subject to verification by all parties. This data is copyrighted and may not be transmitted, retransmitted, copied, framed, repurposed, or altered in any way for any other site, individual and/or purpose without the express written permission of the Multiple Listing Service of the Pensacola Association of REALTORS®. Florida recognizes single and transaction agency relationships. Information Deemed Reliable But Not Guaranteed. Any use of search facilities of data on this site, other than by a consumer looking to purchase real estate, is prohibited.

Daytona: © 2026 Daytona Beach Area Association of REALTORS®, Inc.

Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards and conflicts policy.

All nineteen Florida markets · Punta Gorda data · Panama City data · Seller net proceeds calculator

Market statistics in this article are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty and from public records and government datasets, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This article is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.

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