
Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.40 percent, up from 6.30 percent a year ago, as the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 5.28 percent and buyers pulled back.
Freddie Mac's 30-year rate rose to 7.40% from 7.28%, a seventh straight weekly increase. The 15-year hit 6.73%. Here is what it means for Florida buyers.
Zillow reported that engaged home shoppers per listing rose 42.9 percent in Jacksonville, 34.5 percent in Miami and 32.3 percent in Tampa in the second quarter of 2026, the three largest increases among the 50 metros it published, against 21.4 percent nationally.
The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million for September 2026, up 1.5 percent from August and down 2.2 percent from a year earlier.
Source: National Association of Realtors existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate, as published through FRED (EXHOSLUSM495S, updated October 13, 2026). FRED carries 13 months of this series. Chart: Momentum Research.
Zillow's October 7, 2026 analysis found that a renter earning $100,000 can afford a median 1,674 square feet in Jacksonville and 1,000 square feet in Miami, a gap of 674 square feet on the same budget.
Redfin's October 8, 2026 analysis places Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach among 24 U.S. metropolitan areas where housing costs could take at least a decade to return to 2018 norms, and Florida contributes more metros to that list than any other state.
Redfin reported that 21.1 percent of U.S. home listings carried a price drop in the four weeks ending September 20, 2026, the highest September share in its records, while the share fell from a year earlier in Tampa, Orlando and West Palm Beach.
Are Florida home prices still rising?
Monthly · September 2026
1.8% higher than a year ago
The statewide median is an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, so it moves with mix as well as with price.
Are buyers coming back?
Monthly · September 2026
demand 2.3% lower than a year ago
Closings are the cleanest demand signal we hold, because a closed sale is a completed decision rather than an intention.
Is Florida building its way out?
Monthly · June 2026Census Building Permits Survey
4.8% lower than a year ago
Permits lead completions by roughly a year, so this is next year's supply, not this month's.
Method
U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Monthly.
Are homes selling faster?
Monthly · September 2026
7 days faster than a year ago
Falling days on market favours sellers; rising days favours buyers. Direction alone does not say who is winning.
How much are sellers conceding?
Monthly · September 2026
sellers conceding 1.1pp less than a year ago
Measured against the ORIGINAL list price, so it captures cuts made during the listing, not just the final negotiation.
Is the price move real, or just bigger houses?
Monthly · September 2026
0.8% higher than a year ago
Price per square foot strips size mix out of the headline median.
What is money costing?
Weekly to monthly · September 2026Freddie Mac PMMS averaged to months
0.51pp higher than a year ago
The single largest input to affordability, and the one no Florida policy can move.
Method
Weekly, Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), averaged to months. Read from the raw FRED lane, not rates-data.js, which _rates_ingest.py has failed to update since 2026-08-11.
Is affordability actually improving?
Monthly · September 2026modelled from that month's rate and median price
$152 more per month than a year ago
Principal and interest only, 20% down. In Florida taxes and insurance are the larger share, so read direction, not budget.
Method
Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at that month's average PMMS rate, on that month's Florida median closed price. Excludes taxes, insurance and HOA - in Florida those are the larger share of the payment, so read this as direction, not as a budget.
Is there more to choose from?
Annual · 2026June snapshot of each year
12.3% lower than a year ago
Active listings each June. Annual, because no monthly active-listing history exists yet.
Method
Active residential listings, sum of Florida counties, June snapshot of each year. Annual - this is the only inventory history held as a series; no monthly active-listing history exists.
Are people still moving in?
Annual, lagged · 2022-23IRS filed-year pairs, published years behind
55.8% lower than a year ago
IRS exemptions, net of inflow and outflow. Published on a long lag, so this is a trend, not a nowcast.
Method
IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration, individual exemptions, net of inflow and outflow for Florida. State FIPS 1-56 only: pseudo-codes 57 (foreign), 58 (same-state) and 59 (regional aggregates) are excluded because 59 double-counts the state rows and 57 is not domestic. Annual, filed-year pairs, published on a long lag.
How many homes are for sale?
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
9.5% lower than a year ago
Active listings counted across the nineteen markets we cover, from Redfin's county file. A stock: unsold homes accumulate here.
How many are going under contract?
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
5.6% higher than a year ago
Pending sales counted across the same nineteen markets. A flow: contracts signed that month, the step before closing.
How much of the market is new construction?
Monthly · September 2026Six reconciling markets, MLS records
0.3% lower than a year ago
Share of closed sales flagged new construction in the six markets whose builder records reconcile exactly, every month.
Who is paying cash?
Monthly · September 2026Seven measured feeds, MLS records
1.1% higher than a year ago
Share of closed sales recorded as cash across the seven feeds whose financing field is populated. The Tampa and Orlando core is not yet measured.
How long would the inventory take to sell?
Monthly · July 2026Redfin actives over our closings
16.7% lower than a year ago
Standing for-sale stock divided by that month's closings. Around six months is the traditional line between buyer and seller leverage.
How many homes are being listed?
Monthly · September 2026Measured feeds, MLS records; history from 2024-08
22.3% lower than a year ago
New listings entering the measured feeds each month. A flow: fresh supply, the step before active inventory.
All nineteen markets
Jacksonville$379,974+1.9%2,017 closings · 2026-09Earlier coverage
Florida Housing Intelligence
Reporting on the Florida housing market, computed from MLS records licensed across eleven multiple listing services. Latest complete month: 2026-09.
Prices are still higher than a year ago while sales are lower: the median closed at $426,387, up 1.8%, on 22,832 closings, down 2.3%. Prices rising on falling volume is a thinner market, not a stronger one.
Sellers are conceding less and waiting less: 94.9% of original list against 93.8% a year ago, and 51 days on market against 58. On these two measures leverage moved toward sellers, not buyers.
The statewide number hides the range. Florida Keys (Monroe) is +16.8% year over year; Panama City (Bay) is −4.7%. A single Florida figure describes no Florida market.
Assembled from the figures on this page by fixed rule, not written per release. It states what the numbers are and the mechanism they imply; it does not forecast. Interpretation beyond this appears under a byline.
Market statistics on this page are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty and from public records and government datasets, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This page is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.
Statewide figures are an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, not a pooled median. Per-feed MLS attribution travels with each figure and feeds are never co-mingled in one number; each market page carries its own. Permit counts are U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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