Data Analysis
Buyers who purchased a Florida home in 2023 and have already resold lost money 55.5 percent of the time once an 8 percent round trip in buying and selling costs is counted, the highest share for any purchase year since 2007, a Momentum Research match of 2,329,694 repeat sales found.
In St. Johns County 70.6% of 2022-2023 buyers who resold came out behind; Flagler 70.3%, Clay 55.3%, Duval 52.9%. Only 2006 buyers did worse, at 85.8%.
Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66 percent in the week ending August 27, 2026, one basis point above last week and 10 above a year ago.
The 30-year fixed enters the Labor Day week at 6.89 percent with the September hike debate unresolved. One inflation report on Friday, September 11, is the last major input before the Fed votes on the 16th, and a Miami builder reports the same night.
A buyer closing on a home at the typical value in a Florida county today faces a first-year property tax bill 2.5x the median bill current owners in that county report, a Momentum Research analysis of all 67 counties found, with the multiple at 2 or higher in 55 of them.
The 30-year fixed closed the week at 6.89 percent, one basis point higher, after a payroll report three times the consensus. The bond market had already priced the hike debate, and the August CPI on September 11 now decides it.
Redfin reported that homes in Jacksonville's highly rated school zones sold for a median $630,000 between January and June 2026, 68 percent above the metro's overall median of $375,000 and the fifth largest school zone premium among the 81 metropolitan areas it studied.
Are Florida home prices still rising?
$421,502▬ +1.6%
Monthly · August 2026
1.6% higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
The statewide median is an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, so it moves with mix as well as with price.
Are buyers coming back?
23,167▼ −4.2%
Monthly · August 2026
demand 4.2% lower than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Closings are the cleanest demand signal we hold, because a closed sale is a completed decision rather than an intention.
Is Florida building its way out?
9,943▬ −4.8%
Monthly · June 2026Census Building Permits Survey
4.8% lower than a year ago
January 2022June 2026
Permits lead completions by roughly a year, so this is next year's supply, not this month's.
Method
U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Monthly.
Are homes selling faster?
50▬ −12.3%
Monthly · August 2026
7 days faster than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Falling days on market favours sellers; rising days favours buyers. Direction alone does not say who is winning.
How much are sellers conceding?
95.1%▬ +1.3pp
Monthly · August 2026
sellers conceding 1.3pp less than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Measured against the ORIGINAL list price, so it captures cuts made during the listing, not just the final negotiation.
Is the price move real, or just bigger houses?
$251▬ +1.2%
Monthly · August 2026
1.2% higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Price per square foot strips size mix out of the headline median.
What is money costing?
6.67%▼ +0.1pp
Weekly to monthly · August 2026Freddie Mac PMMS averaged to months
0.08pp higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
The single largest input to affordability, and the one no Florida policy can move.
Method
Weekly, Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), averaged to months. Read from the raw FRED lane, not rates-data.js, which _rates_ingest.py has failed to update since 2026-08-11.
Is affordability actually improving?
$2,169▼ +2.5%
Monthly · August 2026modelled from that month's rate and median price
$53 more per month than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Principal and interest only, 20% down. In Florida taxes and insurance are the larger share, so read direction, not budget.
Method
Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at that month's average PMMS rate, on that month's Florida median closed price. Excludes taxes, insurance and HOA - in Florida those are the larger share of the payment, so read this as direction, not as a budget.
Is there more to choose from?
184,160▬ −12.3%
Annual · 2026June snapshot of each year
12.3% lower than a year ago
20182026
Active listings each June. Annual, because no monthly active-listing history exists yet.
Method
Active residential listings, sum of Florida counties, June snapshot of each year. Annual - this is the only inventory history held as a series; no monthly active-listing history exists.
Are people still moving in?
128,581▼ −55.8%
Annual, lagged · 2022-23IRS filed-year pairs, published years behind
55.8% lower than a year ago
December 20112022-23
IRS exemptions, net of inflow and outflow. Published on a long lag, so this is a trend, not a nowcast.
Method
IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration, individual exemptions, net of inflow and outflow for Florida. State FIPS 1-56 only: pseudo-codes 57 (foreign), 58 (same-state) and 59 (regional aggregates) are excluded because 59 double-counts the state rows and 57 is not domestic. Annual, filed-year pairs, published on a long lag.
How many homes are for sale?
173,381▬ −9.5%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
9.5% lower than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Active listings counted across the nineteen markets we cover, from Redfin's county file. A stock: unsold homes accumulate here.
How many are going under contract?
30,966▲ +5.6%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
5.6% higher than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Pending sales counted across the same nineteen markets. A flow: contracts signed that month, the step before closing.
How much of the market is new construction?
9.5%▬ −0.9pp
Monthly · August 2026Six reconciling markets, MLS records
0.9% lower than a year ago
June 2004August 2026
Share of closed sales flagged new construction in the six markets whose builder records reconcile exactly, every month.
Who is paying cash?
36.7%▬ +1.0pp
Monthly · August 2026Seven measured feeds, MLS records
1.0% higher than a year ago
July 2001August 2026
Share of closed sales recorded as cash across the seven feeds whose financing field is populated. The Tampa and Orlando core is not yet measured.
How long would the inventory take to sell?
6.5▬ −16.7%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin actives over our closings
16.7% lower than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Standing for-sale stock divided by that month's closings. Around six months is the traditional line between buyer and seller leverage.
How many homes are being listed?
42,739▬ +7.5%
Monthly · August 2026Measured feeds, MLS records; history from 2024-08
7.5% higher than a year ago
August 2024August 2026
New listings entering the measured feeds each month. A flow: fresh supply, the step before active inventory.
All nineteen markets
Jacksonville$375,223+0.6%2,071 closings · 2026-08Miami-Dade$555,000+0.9%1,752 closings · 2026-08Fort Lauderdale$460,000+4.5%1,930 closings · 2026-08West Palm Beach$510,000+8.5%1,878 closings · 2026-08Florida Keys (Monroe)$910,000+0.3%145 closings · 2026-08Orlando$403,022−0.8%3,202 closings · 2026-08Tampa$390,000−1.3%1,455 closings · 2026-08St. Petersburg$400,000+3.4%1,359 closings · 2026-08Sarasota-Manatee$409,788+2.6%1,937 closings · 2026-08Fort Myers (Lee)$355,000+0.7%1,571 closings · 2026-08Naples (Collier)$605,000+0.9%686 closings · 2026-08Ocala (Marion)$277,990+1.1%920 closings · 2026-08Space Coast$355,000+2.0%993 closings · 2026-08Daytona (Volusia-Flagler)$343,143−0.3%524 closings · 2026-08Pensacola$325,106+0.2%699 closings · 2026-08Destin-Walton$492,354+2.4%689 closings · 2026-08Panama City (Bay)$339,900−3.1%442 closings · 2026-08Treasure Coast$425,050+4.7%728 closings · 2026-07Florida Realtors figuresPunta Gorda$353,545+2.5%528 closings · 2026-07Florida Realtors figures
Earlier coverage
Data AnalysisRedfin counts 623 homes sold in the city of West Palm Beach over the three months ending June 2026, up 39.0% year over year, with the median sale price rising 5.9% to $499,678.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 shows Panama City home sales up 18.6% year over year, among the largest volume gains in this release, with the median sale price nearly flat at $306,363.Data AnalysisThe median sale price in the city of Fort Myers fell 6.1 percent year over year to $334,818 in the three months ending June 2026, even as closed sales rose 16.2 percent, according to Redfin.Data AnalysisOrlando's median sale price slipped 2.4 percent year over year to $414,774 in the three months ending June 2026, per Redfin.Data AnalysisRedfin reports a rounded median sale price of $1.4 million for the city of Naples, up 3.5 percent year over year, with 412 homes sold in June 2026 against 330 a year earlier.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 puts the Miami-Dade County median sale price at $576,224, up 0.2% year over year, while closed sales climbed 12.8% to 2,303.Data AnalysisTampa home sales rose 9.0 percent year over year to 1,653 in the three months ending June 2026 as the median price edged up 1.2 percent to $465,547, per Redfin.Data AnalysisSt. Petersburg's median sale price climbed 9.3 percent year over year to $453,753 in the three months ending June 2026, per Redfin.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 puts Jacksonville's median sale price at $309,831, up 1.9% year over year, with the share of listings cutting prices down 6.7 points to 36.0%.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 shows Pensacola's median sale price up 10.5% year over year to $364,801, one of the largest gains among the markets Momentum tracks.Data AnalysisRedfin puts the St. Lucie County median sale price at $374,194 for the three months ending June 2026, down 1.8% year over year, on 633 homes sold.Data AnalysisRedfin recorded 1,005 homes sold in Marion County in June 2026, up 19.2 percent from 843 a year earlier, with the median sale price nearly flat at $282,849.Data AnalysisSarasota home sales surged 22.5 percent year over year to 375 in the three months ending June 2026, with the median price up 6.9 percent to $587,680, per Redfin.Data AnalysisBrevard County's median sale price was $368,859 in the three months ending June 2026, down just 0.28 percent year over year, while sales climbed 12.8 percent to 1,222 homes, according to Redfin.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 shows Volusia County home sales up 11.6% year over year while the median sale price slipped 0.28% to $349,015.Data AnalysisRedfin data for the three months ending June 2026 shows Destin's median sale price at $556,197, up 1.7% year over year, with homes taking a median 98 days to sell.Data AnalysisRedfin reports a Key West median sale price of $1,264,312 for the three months ending June 2026, up 28.0% year over year, while median days on market stretched to 148.Data AnalysisClosed sales in West Palm Beach rose 16.1% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Fort Lauderdale rose 5.5% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisPunta Gorda price per square foot rose 2.1% — the headline median moved -4.5%.Data AnalysisThe median Fort Myers sale price held roughly flat 0.0% in a year.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Orlando rose 6.3% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisThe median Naples sale price held roughly flat 0.3% in a year.Data AnalysisMiami sellers closed at a median 94.3% of original asking in July 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Tampa fell 3.6% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisSt Petersburg price per square foot rose 2.5% — the headline median moved 4.1%.Data AnalysisJacksonville sellers closed at a median 96.8% of original asking in July 2026.Data AnalysisPensacola sellers closed at a median 97.5% of original asking in July 2026.Data AnalysisThe median Treasure Coast sale price rose 5.6% in a year.Data AnalysisOcala price per square foot rose 0.6% — the headline median moved 1.1%.Data AnalysisSarasota price per square foot rose 0.8% — the headline median moved 2.3%.Data AnalysisSpace Coast price per square foot fell 1.9% — the headline median moved 1.7%.Data AnalysisDaytona price per square foot rose 3.3% — the headline median moved 0.9%.Data AnalysisWest Palm Beach sellers closed at a median 94.1% of original asking in July 2026.Data AnalysisFort Lauderdale sellers closed at a median 94.6% of original asking in July 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Punta Gorda fell 3.9% from a year earlier.
Florida Housing Intelligence
Reporting on the Florida housing market, computed from MLS records licensed across eleven multiple listing services. Latest complete month: 2026-08.
Prices are still higher than a year ago while sales are lower: the median closed at $421,502, up 1.6%, on 23,167 closings, down 4.2%. Prices rising on falling volume is a thinner market, not a stronger one.
Sellers are conceding less and waiting less: 95.1% of original list against 93.8% a year ago, and 50 days on market against 57. On these two measures leverage moved toward sellers, not buyers.
The statewide number hides the range. West Palm Beach is +8.5% year over year; Panama City (Bay) is −3.1%. A single Florida figure describes no Florida market.
Assembled from the figures on this page by fixed rule, not written per release. It states what the numbers are and the mechanism they imply; it does not forecast. Interpretation beyond this appears under a byline.
Updated September 8Based on 23,167 August 2026 closings11 licensed MLS feedsHistory to January 2001Methodology
Market statistics on this page are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty and from public records and government datasets, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This page is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.
Statewide figures are an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, not a pooled median. Per-feed MLS attribution travels with each figure and feeds are never co-mingled in one number; each market page carries its own. Permit counts are U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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