Momentum Research · Market data
FL price$426,387 +1.8%FL demand22,832 −2.3%FL supply pipeline9,943 −4.8%FL speed51 −12.1%FL leverage94.9% +1.1ppFL size-adjusted price$251 +0.8%FL cost of money6.86% +0.5ppFL affordability$2,238 +7.3%FL new construction9.2% −0.3ppMiami-Dade$569,000 +2.5%Fort Lauderdale$450,000 unchangedWest Palm Beach$510,900 +4.3%Florida Keys (Monroe)$1,025,000 +16.8%Orlando$406,874 −0.2%Tampa$392,000 −0.8%St. Petersburg$385,000 +5.5%Sarasota-Manatee$420,000 +4.4%Fort Myers (Lee)$350,000 −2.3%Naples (Collier)$599,999 +2.3%Ocala (Marion)$268,500 −2.3%Space Coast$355,000 +1.4%Daytona (Volusia-Flagler)$355,052 −0.4%Jacksonville$379,974 +1.9%Pensacola$323,899 −1.0%Destin-Walton$540,323 +2.9%Panama City (Bay)$335,000 −4.7%
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Market Brief

Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.40 percent, up from 6.30 percent a year ago, as the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 5.28 percent and buyers pulled back.

Freddie Mac's 30-year rate rose to 7.40% from 7.28%, a seventh straight weekly increase. The 15-year hit 6.73%. Here is what it means for Florida buyers.

Data Analysis

Zillow reported that newly built homes sold for less per square foot than existing homes in Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville in July 2026, with Tampa's 12.4 percent new-construction discount the third deepest of any major U.S. metro.

$0$100$200$300$400Newly builtExistingMiami$394$321Orlando$214$220Jacksonville$198$204Tampa$198$226
Median price per square foot, newly built versus existing homes, July 2026. Metros ordered by the size of the new-construction gap. Source: Zillow, September 29, 2026 release. Chart: Momentum Research, Florida Housing Intelligence.
Data Analysis

Zillow reported that engaged home shoppers per listing rose 42.9 percent in Jacksonville, 34.5 percent in Miami and 32.3 percent in Tampa in the second quarter of 2026, the three largest increases among the 50 metros it published, against 21.4 percent nationally.

2468100%10%20%30%40%U.S. 4.8 per listingU.S. +21.4%Miami 2.4, +34.5%Tampa 4.3, +32.3%Orlando 4.0, +27.6%Jacksonville 4.8, +42.9%Engaged shoppers per listing, Q2 2026Change from Q2 2025Florida metroOther large metro
Engaged home shoppers per for-sale listing and the change from a year earlier, 50 large U.S. metros, second quarter of 2026. Zillow counts a user who saved or shared a listing. Dashed lines mark the national figures. Source: Zillow, September 24, 2026 release. Chart: Momentum Research, Florida Housing Intelligence.
Data Analysis

The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million for September 2026, up 1.5 percent from August and down 2.2 percent from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions September 2025 to September 2026
3.6M3.8M4.0M4.2M4.4MSep20254.08OctNovDecJan2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAug3.93Sep3.99

Source: National Association of Realtors existing-home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate, as published through FRED (EXHOSLUSM495S, updated October 13, 2026). FRED carries 13 months of this series. Chart: Momentum Research.

Data Analysis

Zillow's October 7, 2026 analysis found that a renter earning $100,000 can afford a median 1,674 square feet in Jacksonville and 1,000 square feet in Miami, a gap of 674 square feet on the same budget.

The same $2,500 rent budget buys 674 more square feet in Jacksonville than in MiamiMedian size of a rental a $100,000 earner can afford, 50 large U.S. metro areas, January to August 20268001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200square feetnational 1,152Miami1,000 sq ftTampa1,299 sq ftOrlando1,474 sq ftJacksonville1,674 sq ftSource: Zillow, “What $100K rents: A house in Memphis, a one-bedroom apartment in San Jose,” October 7, 2026.Each dot is one of the 50 metro areas in Zillow’s table. Florida Housing Intelligence / Momentum Research.
At the top of a $100,000 renter’s budget, Jacksonville’s median affordable rental runs 1,674 square feet and Miami’s 1,000. Orlando is 1,474 and Tampa 1,299. The national median is 1,152 square feet.
Data Analysis

Redfin's October 8, 2026 analysis places Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach among 24 U.S. metropolitan areas where housing costs could take at least a decade to return to 2018 norms, and Florida contributes more metros to that list than any other state.

Florida has more metros a decade from “normal” than any other stateMetropolitan areas Redfin lists as needing at least ten years for housing costs to return to 2018 norms1234metrosFlorida4Ohio3Michigan2Missouri2New Jersey2New York2Pennsylvania2California1Illinois1Indiana1Maryland1Rhode Island1Virginia1Wisconsin1Source: Redfin, “U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to ‘Normal’ Within 5 Years,” October 8, 2026.State totals counted by Momentum Research from Redfin’s published list of 24 metros. Florida Housing Intelligence.
Four of the 24 metros on Redfin’s decade-or-more list are in Florida: Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa and West Palm Beach. Ohio is next with three. No Florida metro appears on Redfin’s list of the ten markets that could normalize soonest.
Data Analysis

Redfin reported that 21.1 percent of U.S. home listings carried a price drop in the four weeks ending September 20, 2026, the highest September share in its records, while the share fell from a year earlier in Tampa, Orlando and West Palm Beach.

10%15%20%25%30%U.S. 21.1%Sept 2025Sept 2026Jacksonville23.8% (+0.3)Tampa23.4% (-2.0)Orlando20.9% (-1.2)Fort Lauderdale16.4% (no change)West Palm Beach15.8% (-0.7)Miami13.7% (+0.2)
Share of home listings with a price drop, four weeks ending September 20, 2026 against the same four weeks of 2025. Dashed line is the national rate of 21.1 percent. Redfin publishes the 2026 share and the year-over-year change; the 2025 point is the two subtracted. Source: Redfin analysis of MLS data, September 30, 2026. Chart: Momentum Research, Florida Housing Intelligence.
Price

Are Florida home prices still rising?

$426,387▬ +1.8%

Monthly · September 2026

1.8% higher than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

The statewide median is an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, so it moves with mix as well as with price.

Demand

Are buyers coming back?

22,832▼ −2.3%

Monthly · September 2026

demand 2.3% lower than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

Closings are the cleanest demand signal we hold, because a closed sale is a completed decision rather than an intention.

Supply pipeline

Is Florida building its way out?

9,943▬ −4.8%

Monthly · June 2026Census Building Permits Survey

4.8% lower than a year ago

January 2022June 2026

Permits lead completions by roughly a year, so this is next year's supply, not this month's.

Method

U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Monthly.

Speed

Are homes selling faster?

51▬ −12.1%

Monthly · September 2026

7 days faster than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

Falling days on market favours sellers; rising days favours buyers. Direction alone does not say who is winning.

Leverage

How much are sellers conceding?

94.9%▬ +1.1pp

Monthly · September 2026

sellers conceding 1.1pp less than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

Measured against the ORIGINAL list price, so it captures cuts made during the listing, not just the final negotiation.

Size-adjusted price

Is the price move real, or just bigger houses?

$251▬ +0.8%

Monthly · September 2026

0.8% higher than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

Price per square foot strips size mix out of the headline median.

Cost of money

What is money costing?

6.86%▼ +0.5pp

Weekly to monthly · September 2026Freddie Mac PMMS averaged to months

0.51pp higher than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

The single largest input to affordability, and the one no Florida policy can move.

Method

Weekly, Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), averaged to months. Read from the raw FRED lane, not rates-data.js, which _rates_ingest.py has failed to update since 2026-08-11.

Affordability

Is affordability actually improving?

$2,238▼ +7.3%

Monthly · September 2026modelled from that month's rate and median price

$152 more per month than a year ago

January 2001September 2026

Principal and interest only, 20% down. In Florida taxes and insurance are the larger share, so read direction, not budget.

Method

Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at that month's average PMMS rate, on that month's Florida median closed price. Excludes taxes, insurance and HOA - in Florida those are the larger share of the payment, so read this as direction, not as a budget.

Inventory

Is there more to choose from?

184,160▬ −12.3%

Annual · 2026June snapshot of each year

12.3% lower than a year ago

20182026

Active listings each June. Annual, because no monthly active-listing history exists yet.

Method

Active residential listings, sum of Florida counties, June snapshot of each year. Annual - this is the only inventory history held as a series; no monthly active-listing history exists.

Migration

Are people still moving in?

128,581▼ −55.8%

Annual, lagged · 2022-23IRS filed-year pairs, published years behind

55.8% lower than a year ago

December 20112022-23

IRS exemptions, net of inflow and outflow. Published on a long lag, so this is a trend, not a nowcast.

Method

IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration, individual exemptions, net of inflow and outflow for Florida. State FIPS 1-56 only: pseudo-codes 57 (foreign), 58 (same-state) and 59 (regional aggregates) are excluded because 59 double-counts the state rows and 57 is not domestic. Annual, filed-year pairs, published on a long lag.

Homes for sale

How many homes are for sale?

173,381▬ −9.5%

Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets

9.5% lower than a year ago

January 2012July 2026

Active listings counted across the nineteen markets we cover, from Redfin's county file. A stock: unsold homes accumulate here.

Under contract

How many are going under contract?

30,966▲ +5.6%

Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets

5.6% higher than a year ago

January 2012July 2026

Pending sales counted across the same nineteen markets. A flow: contracts signed that month, the step before closing.

New construction

How much of the market is new construction?

9.2%▬ −0.3pp

Monthly · September 2026Six reconciling markets, MLS records

0.3% lower than a year ago

June 2004September 2026

Share of closed sales flagged new construction in the six markets whose builder records reconcile exactly, every month.

Cash buyers

Who is paying cash?

38.2%▬ +1.1pp

Monthly · September 2026Seven measured feeds, MLS records

1.1% higher than a year ago

July 2001September 2026

Share of closed sales recorded as cash across the seven feeds whose financing field is populated. The Tampa and Orlando core is not yet measured.

Months of supply

How long would the inventory take to sell?

6.5▬ −16.7%

Monthly · July 2026Redfin actives over our closings

16.7% lower than a year ago

January 2012July 2026

Standing for-sale stock divided by that month's closings. Around six months is the traditional line between buyer and seller leverage.

New listings

How many homes are being listed?

30,146▬ −22.3%

Monthly · September 2026Measured feeds, MLS records; history from 2024-08

22.3% lower than a year ago

August 2024September 2026

New listings entering the measured feeds each month. A flow: fresh supply, the step before active inventory.

All nineteen markets

Jacksonville$379,974+1.9%2,017 closings · 2026-09

Earlier coverage

Data AnalysisClosed sales in West Palm Beach fell 5.0% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Fort Lauderdale fell 13.1% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisPunta Gorda price per square foot fell 3.0% — the headline median moved -13.5%.Data AnalysisThe median Fort Myers sale price fell 2.3% in a year.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Orlando fell 3.7% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisThe median Naples sale price rose 2.3% in a year.Data AnalysisMiami sellers closed at a median 94.5% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Tampa fell 10.6% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisSt Petersburg price per square foot rose 3.4% — the headline median moved 5.5%.Data AnalysisJacksonville sellers closed at a median 96.1% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisPensacola sellers closed at a median 96.9% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisThe median Treasure Coast sale price rose 3.1% in a year.Data AnalysisOcala price per square foot fell 3.5% — the headline median moved -2.3%.Data AnalysisSarasota price per square foot rose 1.3% — the headline median moved 4.1%.Data AnalysisSpace Coast price per square foot rose 3.4% — the headline median moved 2.0%.Data AnalysisDaytona price per square foot fell 3.7% — the headline median moved 0.9%.Data AnalysisWest Palm Beach sellers closed at a median 94.0% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisFort Lauderdale sellers closed at a median 94.2% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Punta Gorda fell 7.3% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisThe median Panama City sale price fell 4.7% in a year.Data AnalysisFort Myers price per square foot fell 1.9% — the headline median moved -2.3%.Data AnalysisOrlando sellers closed at a median 96.1% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisNaples price per square foot rose 2.1% — the headline median moved 2.3%.Data AnalysisHomes in Miami took a median 53 days to go under contract in September 2026 — 7 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisTampa sellers closed at a median 95.7% of original asking in September 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in St Petersburg fell 2.7% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisHomes in Jacksonville took a median 46 days to go under contract in September 2026 — 7 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisHomes in Pensacola took a median 50 days to go under contract in September 2026 — 1 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisTreasure Coast price per square foot rose 1.3% — the headline median moved 3.1%.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Ocala fell 3.9% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Sarasota rose 2.7% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Space Coast fell 5.9% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Daytona fell 9.1% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Destin rose 3.9% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Florida Keys rose 8.1% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisHomes in West Palm Beach took a median 41 days to go under contract in September 2026 — 14 days shorter than a year ago.
Momentum Research · Market Data

Florida Housing Intelligence

Reporting on the Florida housing market, computed from MLS records licensed across eleven multiple listing services. Latest complete month: 2026-09.

Prices are still higher than a year ago while sales are lower: the median closed at $426,387, up 1.8%, on 22,832 closings, down 2.3%. Prices rising on falling volume is a thinner market, not a stronger one.

Sellers are conceding less and waiting less: 94.9% of original list against 93.8% a year ago, and 51 days on market against 58. On these two measures leverage moved toward sellers, not buyers.

The statewide number hides the range. Florida Keys (Monroe) is +16.8% year over year; Panama City (Bay) is −4.7%. A single Florida figure describes no Florida market.

Assembled from the figures on this page by fixed rule, not written per release. It states what the numbers are and the mechanism they imply; it does not forecast. Interpretation beyond this appears under a byline.

Updated October 18Based on 22,832 September 2026 closings11 licensed MLS feedsHistory to January 2001Methodology

Market statistics on this page are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty and from public records and government datasets, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This page is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.

Statewide figures are an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, not a pooled median. Per-feed MLS attribution travels with each figure and feeds are never co-mingled in one number; each market page carries its own. Permit counts are U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.

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