Market Brief
With the 30-year fixed at 7.24 percent on Optimal Blue's rate-lock index, 49.9 percent of outstanding U.S. mortgages still carry a rate of 4 percent or less, the widest gap between new and existing borrowers since the early 1980s, as PCE inflation and the September jobs report head a heavy week of data.
Optimal Blue 30-year 7.24%. 49.9% of mortgages at 4% or less. New homes now priced below existing. PCE Wednesday, jobs Friday.
Redfin reported Miami had 138 percent more home sellers than buyers in August 2026, the second-largest surplus of any U.S. metro, with Orlando fourth at 122 percent.
Mortgage rates closed the week at 7.49 percent on the daily index, 30 basis points above Monday, as final September consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent, while Citizens' policy count slid toward 255,000 and Brightline's parent entities filed for Chapter 11.
The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in September 2026, down 7.5 percent from August and 13.2 percent from a year earlier, as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6 percent.
Florida price per square foot rose 1.2% — the headline median moved 1.7%.
Closed sales in Florida fell 2.5% from a year earlier.
Are Florida home prices still rising?
$422,104▬ +1.8%
Monthly · August 2026
1.8% higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
The statewide median is an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, so it moves with mix as well as with price.
Are buyers coming back?
23,824▼ −1.5%
Monthly · August 2026
demand 1.5% lower than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Closings are the cleanest demand signal we hold, because a closed sale is a completed decision rather than an intention.
Is Florida building its way out?
9,943▬ −4.8%
Monthly · June 2026Census Building Permits Survey
4.8% lower than a year ago
January 2022June 2026
Permits lead completions by roughly a year, so this is next year's supply, not this month's.
Method
U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Monthly.
Are homes selling faster?
50▬ −12.3%
Monthly · August 2026
7 days faster than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Falling days on market favours sellers; rising days favours buyers. Direction alone does not say who is winning.
How much are sellers conceding?
95.1%▬ +1.3pp
Monthly · August 2026
sellers conceding 1.3pp less than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Measured against the ORIGINAL list price, so it captures cuts made during the listing, not just the final negotiation.
Is the price move real, or just bigger houses?
$252▬ +1.6%
Monthly · August 2026
1.6% higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Price per square foot strips size mix out of the headline median.
What is money costing?
6.67%▼ +0.1pp
Weekly to monthly · August 2026Freddie Mac PMMS averaged to months
0.08pp higher than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
The single largest input to affordability, and the one no Florida policy can move.
Method
Weekly, Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), averaged to months. Read from the raw FRED lane, not rates-data.js, which _rates_ingest.py has failed to update since 2026-08-11.
Is affordability actually improving?
$2,172▼ +2.6%
Monthly · August 2026modelled from that month's rate and median price
$56 more per month than a year ago
January 2001August 2026
Principal and interest only, 20% down. In Florida taxes and insurance are the larger share, so read direction, not budget.
Method
Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at that month's average PMMS rate, on that month's Florida median closed price. Excludes taxes, insurance and HOA - in Florida those are the larger share of the payment, so read this as direction, not as a budget.
Is there more to choose from?
184,160▬ −12.3%
Annual · 2026June snapshot of each year
12.3% lower than a year ago
20182026
Active listings each June. Annual, because no monthly active-listing history exists yet.
Method
Active residential listings, sum of Florida counties, June snapshot of each year. Annual - this is the only inventory history held as a series; no monthly active-listing history exists.
Are people still moving in?
128,581▼ −55.8%
Annual, lagged · 2022-23IRS filed-year pairs, published years behind
55.8% lower than a year ago
December 20112022-23
IRS exemptions, net of inflow and outflow. Published on a long lag, so this is a trend, not a nowcast.
Method
IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration, individual exemptions, net of inflow and outflow for Florida. State FIPS 1-56 only: pseudo-codes 57 (foreign), 58 (same-state) and 59 (regional aggregates) are excluded because 59 double-counts the state rows and 57 is not domestic. Annual, filed-year pairs, published on a long lag.
How many homes are for sale?
173,381▬ −9.5%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
9.5% lower than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Active listings counted across the nineteen markets we cover, from Redfin's county file. A stock: unsold homes accumulate here.
How many are going under contract?
30,966▲ +5.6%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin county file, our nineteen markets
5.6% higher than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Pending sales counted across the same nineteen markets. A flow: contracts signed that month, the step before closing.
How much of the market is new construction?
9.4%▬ −1.0pp
Monthly · August 2026Six reconciling markets, MLS records
1.0% lower than a year ago
June 2004August 2026
Share of closed sales flagged new construction in the six markets whose builder records reconcile exactly, every month.
Who is paying cash?
36.9%▬ +1.2pp
Monthly · August 2026Seven measured feeds, MLS records
1.2% higher than a year ago
July 2001August 2026
Share of closed sales recorded as cash across the seven feeds whose financing field is populated. The Tampa and Orlando core is not yet measured.
How long would the inventory take to sell?
6.5▬ −16.7%
Monthly · July 2026Redfin actives over our closings
16.7% lower than a year ago
January 2012July 2026
Standing for-sale stock divided by that month's closings. Around six months is the traditional line between buyer and seller leverage.
How many homes are being listed?
43,150▬ +8.6%
Monthly · August 2026Measured feeds, MLS records; history from 2024-08
8.6% higher than a year ago
August 2024August 2026
New listings entering the measured feeds each month. A flow: fresh supply, the step before active inventory.
All nineteen markets
Jacksonville$375,546+0.7%2,142 closings · 2026-08Miami-Dade$555,000+0.9%1,839 closings · 2026-08Fort Lauderdale$459,000+4.3%2,004 closings · 2026-08West Palm Beach$510,000+8.5%1,966 closings · 2026-08Florida Keys (Monroe)$910,000+0.3%145 closings · 2026-08Orlando$403,736−0.7%3,230 closings · 2026-08Tampa$390,000−1.3%1,465 closings · 2026-08St. Petersburg$400,000+3.4%1,366 closings · 2026-08Sarasota-Manatee$410,840+2.8%1,965 closings · 2026-08Fort Myers (Lee)$355,000+0.7%1,592 closings · 2026-08Naples (Collier)$595,900−0.6%696 closings · 2026-08Ocala (Marion)$277,990+1.1%920 closings · 2026-08Space Coast$355,000+2.0%1,017 closings · 2026-08Daytona (Volusia-Flagler)$343,096−0.3%532 closings · 2026-08Pensacola$325,171+0.2%704 closings · 2026-08Destin-Walton$492,009+2.4%695 closings · 2026-08Panama City (Bay)$339,900−3.1%447 closings · 2026-08Treasure Coast$425,050+4.7%728 closings · 2026-07Florida Realtors figuresPunta Gorda$353,545+2.5%528 closings · 2026-07Florida Realtors figures
Earlier coverage
Data AnalysisClosed sales in West Palm Beach fell 4.5% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Fort Lauderdale fell 5.0% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisPunta Gorda price per square foot rose 1.6% — the headline median moved 2.9%.Data AnalysisThe median Fort Myers sale price rose 0.7% in a year.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Orlando fell 1.0% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisThe median Naples sale price held roughly flat 0.3% in a year.Data AnalysisMiami sellers closed at a median 94.6% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Tampa fell 13.0% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisSt Petersburg price per square foot held roughly flat 0.0% — the headline median moved 3.4%.Data AnalysisJacksonville sellers closed at a median 96.8% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisPensacola sellers closed at a median 97.2% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisThe median Treasure Coast sale price held roughly flat 0.4% in a year.Data AnalysisOcala price per square foot fell 2.3% — the headline median moved 1.1%.Data AnalysisSarasota price per square foot rose 1.3% — the headline median moved 2.6%.Data AnalysisSpace Coast price per square foot held roughly flat 0.0% — the headline median moved 2.0%.Data AnalysisDaytona price per square foot rose 2.9% — the headline median moved 0.8%.Data AnalysisWest Palm Beach sellers closed at a median 93.9% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisFort Lauderdale sellers closed at a median 94.4% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Punta Gorda fell 5.8% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisThe median Panama City sale price fell 3.1% in a year.Data AnalysisFort Myers price per square foot fell 2.3% — the headline median moved 0.7%.Data AnalysisOrlando sellers closed at a median 96.5% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisNaples price per square foot held roughly flat 0.3% — the headline median moved -0.3%.Data AnalysisHomes in Miami took a median 52 days to go under contract in August 2026 — 7 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisTampa sellers closed at a median 96.3% of original asking in August 2026.Data AnalysisClosed sales in St Petersburg fell 6.4% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisHomes in Jacksonville took a median 41 days to go under contract in August 2026 — 8 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisHomes in Pensacola took a median 42 days to go under contract in August 2026 — 7 days shorter than a year ago.Data AnalysisTreasure Coast price per square foot rose 3.0% — the headline median moved 0.4%.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Ocala rose 4.5% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Sarasota rose 6.5% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Space Coast fell 3.2% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Daytona fell 7.0% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Destin rose 9.3% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisClosed sales in Florida Keys fell 5.8% from a year earlier.Data AnalysisHomes in West Palm Beach took a median 43 days to go under contract in August 2026 — 14 days shorter than a year ago.
Florida Housing Intelligence
Reporting on the Florida housing market, computed from MLS records licensed across eleven multiple listing services. Latest complete month: 2026-08.
Prices are still higher than a year ago while sales are lower: the median closed at $422,104, up 1.8%, on 23,824 closings, down 1.5%. Prices rising on falling volume is a thinner market, not a stronger one.
Sellers are conceding less and waiting less: 95.1% of original list against 93.8% a year ago, and 50 days on market against 57. On these two measures leverage moved toward sellers, not buyers.
The statewide number hides the range. West Palm Beach is +8.5% year over year; Panama City (Bay) is −3.1%. A single Florida figure describes no Florida market.
Assembled from the figures on this page by fixed rule, not written per release. It states what the numbers are and the mechanism they imply; it does not forecast. Interpretation beyond this appears under a byline.
Updated September 29Based on 23,824 August 2026 closings11 licensed MLS feedsHistory to January 2001Methodology
Market statistics on this page are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty and from public records and government datasets, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This page is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.
Statewide figures are an n-weighted aggregate of county medians, not a pooled median. Per-feed MLS attribution travels with each figure and feeds are never co-mingled in one number; each market page carries its own. Permit counts are U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, single-family, Florida. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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