Jacksonville Real Estate Market Predictions 2022
My prediction is that local housing prices will continue going up until we experience more supply. Supply is being hindered by the 3L's - land, labor, and logistics. Scarcity (a lack of supply) is what really causes prices to go up.
According to February's NEFAR data, housing supply is still decreasing despite the current level of new construction. Meanwhile, demand remains high as we are still seeing 10-30 offers per well-priced listing, even with buyer and buyer agent fatigue and buyers being priced out. Many offers are cash from investors or relocation buyers, creating a hyper-competitive environment.
According to our brokerage data and MLS data, Momentum Realty's agents are taking market share - and currently maintain approximately 5% market share in Northeast Florida (i.e. a Momentum Agent is involved in 1/20 of transactions in Northeast Florida).
It is our expectations that inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical tensions will cause even more investor and consumer demand for properties. Nothing is safer or more inflation hedged than real estate in the United States. And, Northeast Florida is still relatively more affordable than other local markets (think Orlando and Tampa).
I believe we will continue to see less and less supply available going into busy season, and for many buyer agents it will be a real struggle with them either giving up, switching companies, or dropping out of buyer focused (online lead purchase) teams. This is a disrupt that is badly needed as Northeast Florida now has more than 11,000 real estate agents but only 2,850 active listings. The market will shake out the weak hands and the strong hands will increase their market share and come out ahead over the next few years.
This is a great opportunity for Momentum because agents are starting to look at their profit and loss statements again -- and wondering why they pay so much to their brokerages in splits versus transitioning to a low cost productivity environment with top producers that will create the energy and tactics needed to take share in this market.
Here's some key stats for February 2022 vs 2021
New Listings: -5.4%
Pending Sales: -1.9%
Closed Sales: -11.7%
Median Sales Price: +25.3%
Inventory: -35.3%
Month's Supply 1.2 months
Days on Market: 16 days
% of Homes Selling Above List Price: 32.5%
Statistic's Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors
