The Jobs Report Is a Lie — And It’s About to Crack Housing
The headlines say the labor market is “holding up.”
The revisions tell a very different story.
In January, the U.S. reportedly added 130,000 jobs. On the surface, that sounds stable. Encouraging, even.
But beneath the headline number is one of the largest benchmark revisions since 2009 — roughly 862,000 jobs revised away.
That’s not a rounding error.
That’s a structural warning.
And if history is any guide, it’s the job market — not mortgage rates — that ultimately cracks housing.
The Employment Illusion
Here’s what’s happening:
Healthcare and government hiring are carrying the report.
The rest of the private sector is shedding jobs.
Layoff announcements are at the highest start-of-year level since the Great Recession .
Job openings are trending down.
Hiring rates are slowing.
When you strip out healthcare and education, the broader economy is down hundreds of thousands of jobs.
That’s not strength.
That’s consolidation.
And it’s accelerating.
AI is replacing roles.
Companies are consolidating positions.
Amazon is hiring robots instead of warehouse workers.
If one employee can now do the work of five, four people lose buying power.
And if you don’t have a job — you don’t buy a house.
The Next Generation Is Already Locked Out
Starting salaries for new college grads have fallen in real terms — from roughly $70,000 to around $54–55,000.
Meanwhile:
The income required to purchase a median home is roughly $109,000–$111,000.
Median household income is closer to $85,000.
The average first-time homebuyer age has risen to 41.
You can’t inflate asset prices 68% in Florida over a few years and expect wages to magically catch up.
They won’t.
Prices mean revert.
Inventory Is Back. Demand Is Not.
National housing inventory is back near 2019 levels.
Closed sales are down sharply.
Pending sales are at record lows for December.
Transactions are slowing across the country.
In Jacksonville specifically:
Median sales price is already down ~5% year-over-year (though some areas down 10% already)
Closed sales are down significantly.
Pending sales are down ~24–28%.
And this is how housing turns:
Transactions slow.
Listings stack.
Sellers capitulate on price.
It doesn’t happen in one week.
It happens month by month, over years.
The “Housing Shortage” Narrative Is Cracking
For years we’ve heard:
“There’s a massive housing shortage.”
Even major banks are now revising that narrative.
Estimates of the true “shortage” are closer to 1.2 million homes — far lower than widely cited numbers .
In Florida, we no longer have a shortage.
We had a demand shock from 2020–2021.
Five years of migration happened in two.
Builders responded aggressively.
Now:
Domestic net migration is down ~93%.
Immigration is down ~70%.
Inventory is stacking.
Rents in Jacksonville are down ~20%.
When migration slows in a market that depends on migration, supply math flips fast.
Consumers Are Maxed Out
This is the part most people are ignoring.
Credit card delinquencies are near Great Financial Crisis levels.
Student loan delinquencies are spiking.
Auto loan stress is rising.
Even mortgage delinquencies for 2022–2025 vintages are creeping up .
And remember:
It costs roughly 10% round trip to sell a house .
Add:
Insurance increases (+70% in recent years in Florida )
HOA increases
Property taxes
Maintenance
Vacancy drag
Negative equity is rising — especially in Florida, Texas, and Colorado.
And those FHA (3.5% down) and VA (0% down) buyers?
They’re the first to feel it in new construction communities competing against builder incentives.
The Ratio That Matters
The home value-to-income ratio is near record highs.
To revert to historical norms?
Roughly a 25–27% decline nationally.
My Florida investment models suggest:
31–42% from peak (October 2022).
Not because I’m bearish emotionally — I was a bull from 2014-2022.
Because the math demands it.
Wages are unlikely to surge in an AI-displacing labor market.
Prices have to adjust.
Florida Moves First
Florida often leads in boom–bust cycles.
Why?
Higher investor share
Higher second-home exposure
Heavier reliance on migration
Higher insurance and HOA costs
Greater rate sensitivity
Foreclosure rates are already elevated in Florida compared to many states.
Investors are starting to call:
“I need to liquidate my portfolio.”
Vacancy kills rental returns.
Build-to-rent competition is fierce.
Multifamily supply is elevated.
When 30% of recent buyers were investors, and rents start falling, portfolios move fast.
What Happens Next
This is not about panic. It’s about structure and defense.
Here’s the sequence:
Jobs weaken.
Transactions slow.
Listings accumulate.
Sentiment shifts.
Prices mean revert.
We are already at Step 2.
The employment revisions are the canary.
Housing depends on confidence.
Confidence depends on income stability.
And income stability is quietly eroding.
For many real estate investors and even equities investors, now is a time to be very diligent with your capital.
Hold cash, cut expenses, deploy selectively, and stay patient. This is what we are doing.
Opportunity is coming - jon@movewithmomentum.com
Keep in touch and comment what you are seeing, would love to hear from you.
