The Northeast Florida market in May 2026 looks healthier than at any point in the last two years. Inventory has expanded enough to give buyers real choices without crashing prices. Sellers are still earning strong appreciation, but the days of 12 offers in 48 hours are mostly over. Here's what the data shows and how to read it.
The data at a glance.
Median Sale Price (Metro)
$385,000
+3.8% YoY
Avg. Days on Market
44 days
+6 days YoY
Months of Inventory
3.2
Balanced market
Closed Sales (April)
1,752
+2.1% MoM
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
Negotiable
New Listings (April)
2,108
+8% YoY
By submarket.
| Market |
Median Price |
YoY Change |
Notes |
| Jacksonville (Duval County) | $315K | +4.2% | Stable, broadest market |
| Ponte Vedra Beach | $1.10M | +5.8% | Luxury holding firm |
| St. Augustine / St. Johns Cty | $485K | +4.9% | Schools driving premium |
| Orange Park / Clay Cty | $340K | +3.5% | Best value market |
| Fleming Island | $430K | +4.1% | Top schools, tight inventory |
| Amelia Island / Nassau Cty | $595K | +6.4% | Fastest-appreciating |
What's actually happening.
01Inventory has normalized. Buyers have real choices for the first time since 2021, but sellers still hold reasonable pricing power. The market is closer to balanced than at any point in three years.
02Multiple-offer scenarios are still common in three places: well-priced homes under $400K in family-friendly suburban neighborhoods, anything walkable in Riverside or San Marco, and any oceanfront under $1.5M.
03The luxury segment ($1M+) is the most negotiable it's been since 2019. Cash buyers represent 44% of $1M+ closings. Off-market activity continues to grow as a share of total luxury transactions.
04Days on market has expanded to 44 days metro-wide, with longer windows in the $700K-$1.2M middle-luxury segment. Below $400K still moves fast in the right neighborhoods.
05New construction continues to be a relief valve, particularly in Nocatee, Wildlight, and the World Golf Village corridor. Builder incentives (rate buydowns, closing cost credits) are at the highest levels since 2019.
For buyers and sellers right now.
If you're buying.
If you've been waiting on the sidelines, this is the most balanced market you'll see for a while. You have time to look. You can ask for inspection items. You can negotiate. But don't wait too long — interest rates dropping by even 50 bps would shift this back to a seller's market overnight. Best strategy: get pre-approved now, identify your top three target neighborhoods, and have your Momentum agent set up automated alerts for new listings AND off-market.
If you're selling.
Pricing matters more than at any point in the last three years. Overpriced listings now sit, generate price reductions, and end up selling for less than if they'd been priced correctly from day one. Pre-listing inspections are paying off, especially in the $500K-$1M range where buyer scrutiny is highest. If you're in a high-demand niche (walkable in-town, oceanfront, top school zones), you still have leverage. Talk to your Momentum agent before assuming the market is what it was 18 months ago.
★ Forecast
Expect continued moderate price appreciation of 3-5% through year-end 2026, with the most competitive segments being well-priced homes in established in-town neighborhoods and family-friendly suburban communities under $500K. The luxury segment will remain the most negotiable, with off-market activity continuing to grow as a percentage of transactions above $2M.
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