ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$360,000+12.7%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+4.4%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
96+47.7%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
309+43.7%
pipeline building
Months of supply
5.4SF
balanced
Sold over list
8%-40.5%
buyer competition
Moderate buyer advantage · Warming
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 12.7% prices year over year, leading indicators firming. Down 8 points from August (32). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Prices aren't really rising 13% — the market is just selling bigger, higher-end homes.
The median was $360,000 (+12.7% YoY), but the same house, sold twice, moved +4.4% a year. The gap is mix: the share of sales under $200K went 13%→10% and $600K+ went 17%→25%. Read $/sq ft (+3.1%) and same-home resales — not the median — for what a home is really doing.
$360,000
Median price — up 12.7% YoY
+44%
New contracts vs a year ago — the pipeline is building
43%
Of current active listings have cut their price (point-in-time, as of 2026-10-07)
Median up 12.7% YoY; same-home appreciation was +4.4%/yr — the headline is inflated by larger, higher-end homes selling.
Homes sold in a median 96 days; 8% sold over list; supply 5.4 months.
Growth (YoY median) led by Glynn +22.8%, Camden -8.1%; Ware down 16.5%.
Momentum Market Score: 24/100 — Moderate buyer advantage. Prices up 12.7%, contracts up 43.7%.
Five biggest surprises
But real appreciation was only +4.4%/yr. Same homes barely moved; the median rose on mix.
New contracts rose 44% YoY — the sharpest warming signal, hidden beneath the price headline.
43% of active listings have cut price — a seller-market crack in plain sight.
48% of listings leaving the market failed to sell (201 expired, withdrawn or canceled vs 219 closed).
Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.4%/yr; those who bought in the last 1-3 years are at +4.4%/yr — the easy money was pre-2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is up 43.7% YoY. And 43% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
1,082
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
0
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
297
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
309
By contract date — up 43.7% YoY
Months of supply
5.4
Active ÷ monthly closings — balanced
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 201 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 219 closings — roughly a 48% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts up 43.7% and the 43% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +12.7% YoY vs same-home +4.4%/yr across 154 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.4%/yr (278 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $1,906/month with 20% down, +12.7% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 0% of September closings, 0% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 43% of listings have cut price and contracts are up 43.7% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~4%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~96 days.
Expect negotiation. 8% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
188
$360,000
+12.7%
$186
96
0%
Townhouse
8
$603,500
-1.1%
$298
112
0%
Condominium
20
$423,500
+2.0%
$388
146
0%
Condos are softest (+2.0% YoY, 146 days) and most cash-reliant (0%). New construction was 17% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~16% of single-family sales.
About one in 6 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Glynn
93
$457,312
+22.8%
+12.9%
102
0%
Camden
34
$299,450
-8.1%
-6.9%
90
0%
Ware
15
$205,000
-16.5%
+12.4%
84
0%
Wayne
9
$254,900
+18.6%
+13.6%
64
0%
Mcintosh
9
$355,000
-4.7%
-32.4%
206
0%
Liberty
7
$310,000
—
—
99
0%
Pierce
6
$238,250
-9.4%
—
148
0%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
7
7
+0.0%
76
85
-10.6%
100,000-119,999
2
3
-33.3%
30
37
-18.9%
120,000-139,999
3
5
-40.0%
35
48
-27.1%
140,000-159,999
4
5
-20.0%
42
47
-10.6%
160,000-179,999
3
10
-70.0%
61
96
-36.5%
180,000-199,999
7
9
-22.2%
86
100
-14.0%
200,000-249,999
28
25
+12.0%
253
259
-2.3%
250,000-299,999
33
46
-28.3%
372
401
-7.2%
300,000-399,999
49
65
-24.6%
530
528
+0.4%
400,000-499,999
28
27
+3.7%
280
247
+13.4%
500,000-749,999
42
30
+40.0%
329
301
+9.3%
750,000-999,999
8
18
-55.6%
103
117
-12.0%
1,000,000+
21
11
+90.9%
220
189
+16.4%
Totals
235
261
-10.0%
2417
2455
-1.5%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
6
5.0%
100,000-119,999
1
0.8%
120,000-139,999
4
3.4%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
1
0.8%
180,000-199,999
7
5.9%
200,000-249,999
16
13.4%
250,000-299,999
21
17.6%
300,000-399,999
21
17.6%
400,000-499,999
16
13.4%
500,000-749,999
13
10.9%
750,000-999,999
6
5.0%
1,000,000+
7
5.9%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
21
1.5%
100,000-119,999
6
0.4%
120,000-139,999
19
1.4%
140,000-159,999
22
1.6%
160,000-179,999
36
2.6%
180,000-199,999
59
4.3%
200,000-249,999
128
9.3%
250,000-299,999
185
13.5%
300,000-399,999
265
19.3%
400,000-499,999
141
10.3%
500,000-749,999
212
15.5%
750,000-999,999
103
7.5%
1,000,000+
175
12.8%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 1,372 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
7
2.1%
100,000-119,999
3
0.9%
120,000-139,999
5
1.5%
140,000-159,999
4
1.2%
160,000-179,999
10
3.0%
180,000-199,999
20
6.0%
200,000-249,999
31
9.3%
250,000-299,999
43
12.8%
300,000-399,999
66
19.7%
400,000-499,999
33
9.9%
500,000-749,999
46
13.7%
750,000-999,999
27
8.1%
1,000,000+
40
11.9%
335 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
Single-family, ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) region. Computed from 188 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 0 in April 2012 and peaked at 75 in May 2022; today it reads 12.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.05 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +1.1% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved +1.3%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Golden Isles · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (+43.7% YoY), active price cuts (43%), days on market (up 47.7% YoY) and months of supply (5.4). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Up 2-5% ●25% Flat ●10% Down 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●65% Lengthening ●25% Flat ●10% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still rising ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
