Computed from NEFAR MLS (realMLS) records · jon@movewithmomentum.com
Northeast Florida prices up 2.4%, but new contracts fell 25% — the pipeline is thinning.
The median came in at $394,100 (+2.4% YoY). Yet the same house, sold twice, moved +1.6% a year. Our September report reads the leading indicators, ranks every ZIP on a heat map, and back-tests our Market Score across 20 years — all computed by Momentum directly from NEFAR MLS (realMLS) records.
Five biggest surprises
- New contracts fell 25% YoY — the sharpest cooling signal, hidden beneath the price headline.
- 55% of active listings have cut price — a seller-market crack in plain sight.
- 36% of listings leaving the market failed to sell (1,183 expired, withdrawn or canceled vs 2,140 closed).
- Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.3%/yr; those who bought in the last 1-3 years are at +1.6%/yr — the easy money was pre-2022.
- New construction was 24% of closings — builders buying demand with incentives.
Balanced, soft · Cooling
Momentum Market Score: a single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage (supply, days on market, share sold over list, share of active listings cutting price). Down 2 points from August (47). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Just averages whatever happened to sell that month. If a bunch of big, fancy homes sell, it jumps — even if no single house actually gained much.
We find the identical house that sold 1–3 years ago and again in the last 12 months, and compare the two prices. No guessing — that gap is the real move.
“Sold twice” just means we found the same exact house that sold once a while back and then sold again recently, and compared those two prices. Since it’s the identical home both times, that gap tells you how much that house really went up. It’s more honest than the median everyone quotes — the median just averages whatever happened to sell that month, so a wave of high-end sales makes it jump even if no single home actually gained. Sold-twice cuts through that and shows the real move. We only count short holds (bought 1–3 years ago) so the figure lines up with the 12-month median change. This month: 1,436 repeat pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.3%/yr — most of that came before 2022.
September 2026 Market Pulse
Read the full September 2026 report
10 pages: the mix-shift explainer, price-band breakdowns, the ZIP heat map, a probability-based 6-month forecast, and the 20-year Market Score back-test — all computed by Momentum from NEFAR MLS (realMLS) records.
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