Florida Gulf Coast MLS · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · all
$390,000
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
n/a
insufficient pairs
Days on market
58
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
n/a
pipeline steady
Months of supply
n/a
buyer-leaning
Sold over list
5%
buyer competition
Moderate buyer advantage · Steady
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: unchanged prices year over year, leading indicators steady. Up 2 points from August (28). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Where homes sell fastest · All residential, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the Florida Gulf Coast MLS footprint with 15+ all residential closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Naples ZIPs run hot; Sanibel is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
34116 · Naples
44
28
11%
$430,000
33901 · Fort Myers
51
39
4%
$352,000
33936 · Lehigh Acres
149
44
9%
$245,000
33990 · Cape Coral
142
44
10%
$355,000
33967 · Fort Myers
100
44
4%
$366,250
33904 · Cape Coral
213
46
4%
$425,000
33952 · Port Charlotte
19
46
17%
$260,000
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
33957 · Sanibel
66
168
0%
$887,500
33924 · Captiva
16
146
0%
$1,105,000
33931 · Fort Myers Beach
82
120
2%
$465,000
34103 · Naples
95
113
3%
$1,100,000
34102 · Naples
85
113
1%
$2,700,000
34134 · Bonita Springs
132
112
5%
$699,500
33922 · Bokeelia
29
101
0%
$399,000
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 all residential closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is unchanged YoY. And n/a of active listings have already cut price.
All residential pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
n/a
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
n/a
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
n/a
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
n/a
By contract date — unchanged YoY
Months of supply
n/a
Active ÷ monthly closings — buyer-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, n/a listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against n/a closings — roughly a n/a pull rate. A modest failed-listing share: most homes that list are finding a buyer.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median all residential home at $2,065/month with 20% down. Cash buyers were n/a of September closings.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Move decisively on well-priced homes. 5% still sell over list and 58 days is the median wait.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are unchanged; the market is steady.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~58 days.
Expect negotiation. 5% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With buyers paying up, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
This feed does not carry a property sub-type on closed records.
New construction was 100% of all residential closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
New construction · share of all residential sales (12-mo rolling)
Not enough history.
About one in 1 all residential sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
All residential by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Lee
1,447
$350,000
—
—
53
n/a
Collier
694
$600,000
—
—
70
n/a
Charlotte
77
$320,000
—
—
60
n/a
Hendry
30
$284,500
—
—
90
n/a
Glades
10
$360,000
—
—
45
n/a
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Florida Gulf Coast MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
42
0
—
217
0
—
100,000-119,999
26
0
—
155
0
—
120,000-139,999
29
0
—
171
0
—
140,000-159,999
27
0
—
207
0
—
160,000-179,999
49
0
—
227
0
—
180,000-199,999
39
0
—
244
0
—
200,000-249,999
179
0
—
923
0
—
250,000-299,999
246
0
—
1639
0
—
300,000-399,999
518
0
—
3144
0
—
400,000-499,999
286
0
—
1697
0
—
500,000-749,999
396
0
—
2464
0
—
750,000-999,999
168
0
—
959
0
—
1,000,000+
266
0
—
1743
0
—
Totals
2271
0
—
13790
0
—
Pending — contracts written in September still open
No pending snapshot.
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
No active snapshot.
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 0 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
No active snapshot.
0 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
All residential, Florida Gulf Coast MLS region. Computed from 2,271 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 16 in July 2026 and peaked at 20 in September 2026; today it reads 17.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier.
The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Southwest Florida · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (n/a YoY), active price cuts (n/a), days on market (unchanged YoY) and months of supply (n/a). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●50% Flat, within 2% ●30% Up 2%+ ●20% Down 2%+
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
