Computed from ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) records · jon@movewithmomentum.com
Golden Isles median is up 12.7% — but the same house, sold twice, moved +4.4% a year.
The median came in at $360,000 (+12.7% YoY). Yet the same house, sold twice, moved +4.4% a year. Our September report unpacks the mix-shift behind the number, ranks every ZIP on a heat map, and back-tests our Market Score across 20 years — all computed by Momentum directly from ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) records.
Five biggest surprises
- But real appreciation was only +4.4%/yr. Same homes barely moved; the median rose on mix.
- New contracts rose 44% YoY — the sharpest warming signal, hidden beneath the price headline.
- 43% of active listings have cut price — a seller-market crack in plain sight.
- 48% of listings leaving the market failed to sell (201 expired, withdrawn or canceled vs 219 closed).
- Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.4%/yr; those who bought in the last 1-3 years are at +4.4%/yr — the easy money was pre-2022.
Moderate buyer advantage · Warming
Momentum Market Score: a single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage (supply, days on market, share sold over list, share of active listings cutting price). Down 8 points from August (32). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Just averages whatever happened to sell that month. If a bunch of big, fancy homes sell, it jumps — even if no single house actually gained much.
We find the identical house that sold 1–3 years ago and again in the last 12 months, and compare the two prices. No guessing — that gap is the real move.
“Sold twice” just means we found the same exact house that sold once a while back and then sold again recently, and compared those two prices. Since it’s the identical home both times, that gap tells you how much that house really went up. It’s more honest than the median everyone quotes — the median just averages whatever happened to sell that month, so a wave of high-end sales makes it jump even if no single home actually gained. Sold-twice cuts through that and shows the real move. We only count short holds (bought 1–3 years ago) so the figure lines up with the 12-month median change. This month: 154 repeat pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.4%/yr — most of that came before 2022.
September 2026 Market Pulse
Read the full September 2026 report
10 pages: the mix-shift explainer, price-band breakdowns, the ZIP heat map, a probability-based 6-month forecast, and the 20-year Market Score back-test — all computed by Momentum from ScoutMLS (Golden Isles) records.
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Past reports
This is the first monthly edition for this market.