NEFAR MLS (realMLS) · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-24
Median sold · SF
$390,000+1.3%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+1.6%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
41-8.9%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
1,582-14.0%
pipeline thinning
Months of supply
3.8SF
seller-leaning
Sold over list
12%+38.2%
buyer competition
Balanced, soft · Cooling
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 1.3% prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Down 2 points from August (46). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the NEFAR MLS (realMLS) footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Jacksonville ZIPs run hot; Flagler Beach is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32257 · Jacksonville
71
13
23%
$375,000
32250 · Jacksonville Beach
84
14
13%
$770,000
32224 · Jacksonville
143
15
15%
$625,000
32266 · Neptune Beach
20
18
10%
$863,000
32258 · Jacksonville
75
18
21%
$440,000
32211 · Jacksonville
86
18
12%
$285,008
32246 · Jacksonville
109
20
16%
$420,000
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32136 · Flagler Beach
26
108
0%
$525,495
32164 · Palm Coast
107
79
8%
$339,415
32110 · Bunnell
16
78
19%
$295,745
32145 · Hastings
18
74
22%
$315,990
32656 · Keystone Heights
34
68
6%
$300,000
32137 · Palm Coast
82
67
10%
$378,682
32086 · St. Augustine
60
64
5%
$417,000
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 14.0% YoY. And 55% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
6,898
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
989
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
2,160
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
1,582
By contract date — down 14.0% YoY
Months of supply
3.8
Active ÷ monthly closings — seller-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 1,135 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 2,218 closings — roughly a 34% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts down 14.0% and the 55% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +1.3% YoY vs same-home +1.6%/yr across 1,436 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.3%/yr (5,398 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 7.40% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $2,160/month with 20% down, +1.3% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 22% of September closings, 54% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 55% of listings have cut price and contracts are down 14.0% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction and condos.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~2%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~41 days.
Expect negotiation. 12% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
1,761
$390,000
+1.3%
$205
41
22%
Townhouse
241
$274,990
+2.2%
$178
47
24%
Condominium
162
$213,500
-7.0%
$169
62
54%
Condos are softest (-7.0% YoY, 62 days) and most cash-reliant (54%). New construction was 24% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~24% of single-family sales.
About one in 4 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Duval
865
$343,000
+3.9%
-2.0%
33
20%
St. Johns
410
$575,000
+2.7%
+0.2%
42
27%
Clay
223
$355,000
-2.7%
-7.8%
56
17%
Nassau
96
$496,500
+4.5%
+18.2%
44
29%
Flagler
83
$365,438
-0.4%
-14.0%
99
31%
Putnam
33
$297,500
+16.0%
+10.6%
62
24%
Baker
12
$378,450
+18.3%
+3.7%
68
8%
Bradford
11
$357,000
+62.3%
+17.0%
49
45%
Alachua
5
$289,000
+12.3%
—
13
40%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), NEFAR MLS (realMLS) region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
48
67
-28.4%
592
554
+6.9%
100,000-119,999
31
32
-3.1%
242
278
-12.9%
120,000-139,999
36
29
+24.1%
346
327
+5.8%
140,000-159,999
28
44
-36.4%
395
439
-10.0%
160,000-179,999
60
63
-4.8%
487
508
-4.1%
180,000-199,999
76
62
+22.6%
552
550
+0.4%
200,000-249,999
207
247
-16.2%
2009
2267
-11.4%
250,000-299,999
283
298
-5.0%
2851
2740
+4.1%
300,000-399,999
552
623
-11.4%
5332
5381
-0.9%
400,000-499,999
334
346
-3.5%
3131
3032
+3.3%
500,000-749,999
340
338
+0.6%
3460
3233
+7.0%
750,000-999,999
119
121
-1.7%
1142
1134
+0.7%
1,000,000+
133
143
-7.0%
1229
1177
+4.4%
Totals
2247
2413
-6.9%
21768
21620
+0.7%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
6
1.2%
100,000-119,999
5
1.0%
120,000-139,999
9
1.8%
140,000-159,999
8
1.6%
160,000-179,999
6
1.2%
180,000-199,999
10
1.9%
200,000-249,999
20
3.9%
250,000-299,999
58
11.3%
300,000-399,999
160
31.2%
400,000-499,999
83
16.2%
500,000-749,999
80
15.6%
750,000-999,999
34
6.6%
1,000,000+
34
6.6%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
173
1.9%
100,000-119,999
132
1.4%
120,000-139,999
166
1.8%
140,000-159,999
186
2.0%
160,000-179,999
239
2.6%
180,000-199,999
313
3.4%
200,000-249,999
894
9.8%
250,000-299,999
1130
12.4%
300,000-399,999
2112
23.2%
400,000-499,999
1251
13.7%
500,000-749,999
1391
15.3%
750,000-999,999
490
5.4%
1,000,000+
644
7.1%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-24 — 9,121 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
43
2.1%
100,000-119,999
25
1.2%
120,000-139,999
41
2.0%
140,000-159,999
37
1.8%
160,000-179,999
42
2.0%
180,000-199,999
69
3.3%
200,000-249,999
208
10.0%
250,000-299,999
263
12.6%
300,000-399,999
470
22.5%
400,000-499,999
322
15.4%
500,000-749,999
320
15.3%
750,000-999,999
106
5.1%
1,000,000+
141
6.8%
2,087 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Single-family, NEFAR MLS (realMLS) region. Computed from 1,761 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 7 in March 2008 and peaked at 90 in June 2021; today it reads 36.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.31 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +7.2% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved +1.3%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-14.0% YoY), active price cuts (55%), days on market (down 8.9% YoY) and months of supply (3.8). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Flat to slightly lower ●25% Down 2-4% ●10% Up 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●55% Shortening ●30% Flat ●15% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still falling ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
