NEFAR MLS (realMLS) · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$394,100+2.4%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+1.6%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
41-8.9%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
1,384-24.7%
pipeline thinning
Months of supply
3.6SF
seller-leaning
Sold over list
12%+38.3%
buyer competition
Balanced, soft · Cooling
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 2.4% prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Down 2 points from August (47). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the NEFAR MLS (realMLS) footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Jacksonville ZIPs run hot; Flagler Beach is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32257 · Jacksonville
71
13
23%
$375,000
32224 · Jacksonville
141
15
16%
$626,025
32250 · Jacksonville Beach
83
15
13%
$765,000
32266 · Neptune Beach
20
18
10%
$863,000
32258 · Jacksonville
75
18
21%
$440,000
32211 · Jacksonville
83
19
12%
$285,000
32225 · Jacksonville
149
20
14%
$399,900
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32136 · Flagler Beach
26
108
0%
$525,495
32110 · Bunnell
16
78
19%
$295,745
32164 · Palm Coast
101
77
8%
$338,000
32145 · Hastings
18
74
22%
$315,990
32656 · Keystone Heights
34
68
6%
$300,000
32137 · Palm Coast
82
67
10%
$378,682
32086 · St. Augustine
60
64
5%
$417,000
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 24.7% YoY. And 55% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
6,613
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
1,064
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
2,131
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
1,384
By contract date — down 24.7% YoY
Months of supply
3.6
Active ÷ monthly closings — seller-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 1,183 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 2,140 closings — roughly a 36% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts down 24.7% and the 55% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +2.4% YoY vs same-home +1.6%/yr across 1,436 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.3%/yr (5,398 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $2,087/month with 20% down, +2.4% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 22% of September closings, 54% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 55% of listings have cut price and contracts are down 24.7% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction and condos.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~2%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~41 days.
Expect negotiation. 12% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
1,699
$394,100
+2.4%
$206
41
22%
Townhouse
236
$272,990
+1.5%
$178
47
24%
Condominium
157
$212,500
-7.4%
$164
64
54%
Condos are softest (-7.4% YoY, 64 days) and most cash-reliant (54%). New construction was 24% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~24% of single-family sales.
About one in 4 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Duval
832
$345,000
+4.5%
-1.4%
34
20%
St. Johns
391
$572,500
+2.2%
-0.3%
44
27%
Clay
220
$357,500
-2.1%
-7.1%
56
17%
Nassau
96
$496,500
+4.5%
+18.2%
44
29%
Flagler
77
$366,997
-0.0%
-13.6%
90
31%
Putnam
33
$297,500
+16.0%
+10.6%
62
24%
Baker
12
$378,450
+18.3%
+3.7%
68
8%
Bradford
11
$357,000
+62.3%
+17.0%
49
45%
Alachua
5
$289,000
+12.3%
—
13
40%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), NEFAR MLS (realMLS) region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
47
67
-29.9%
591
554
+6.7%
100,000-119,999
30
32
-6.2%
241
278
-13.3%
120,000-139,999
34
29
+17.2%
344
327
+5.2%
140,000-159,999
27
44
-38.6%
394
439
-10.3%
160,000-179,999
58
63
-7.9%
485
508
-4.5%
180,000-199,999
73
62
+17.7%
549
550
-0.2%
200,000-249,999
201
247
-18.6%
2003
2267
-11.6%
250,000-299,999
270
298
-9.4%
2838
2740
+3.6%
300,000-399,999
536
623
-14.0%
5316
5381
-1.2%
400,000-499,999
327
346
-5.5%
3124
3032
+3.0%
500,000-749,999
325
338
-3.8%
3445
3233
+6.6%
750,000-999,999
116
121
-4.1%
1139
1134
+0.4%
1,000,000+
127
143
-11.2%
1223
1177
+3.9%
Totals
2171
2413
-10.0%
21692
21620
+0.3%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
16
2.0%
100,000-119,999
7
0.9%
120,000-139,999
7
0.9%
140,000-159,999
12
1.5%
160,000-179,999
16
2.0%
180,000-199,999
20
2.5%
200,000-249,999
46
5.8%
250,000-299,999
89
11.2%
300,000-399,999
238
30.0%
400,000-499,999
132
16.6%
500,000-749,999
120
15.1%
750,000-999,999
45
5.7%
1,000,000+
45
5.7%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
167
1.9%
100,000-119,999
113
1.3%
120,000-139,999
187
2.1%
140,000-159,999
180
2.0%
160,000-179,999
238
2.7%
180,000-199,999
280
3.2%
200,000-249,999
853
9.7%
250,000-299,999
1086
12.3%
300,000-399,999
2056
23.3%
400,000-499,999
1200
13.6%
500,000-749,999
1336
15.1%
750,000-999,999
521
5.9%
1,000,000+
614
7.0%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 8,831 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
58
2.3%
100,000-119,999
31
1.2%
120,000-139,999
60
2.4%
140,000-159,999
45
1.8%
160,000-179,999
59
2.4%
180,000-199,999
83
3.3%
200,000-249,999
248
10.0%
250,000-299,999
301
12.1%
300,000-399,999
563
22.6%
400,000-499,999
379
15.2%
500,000-749,999
370
14.9%
750,000-999,999
131
5.3%
1,000,000+
163
6.5%
2,491 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Single-family, NEFAR MLS (realMLS) region. Computed from 1,699 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 7 in March 2008 and peaked at 90 in June 2021; today it reads 39.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.31 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +7.2% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved +1.3%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Northeast Florida · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-24.7% YoY), active price cuts (55%), days on market (down 8.9% YoY) and months of supply (3.6). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Flat to slightly lower ●25% Down 2-4% ●10% Up 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●55% Shortening ●30% Flat ●15% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still falling ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
