MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™INDEPENDENT HOUSING RESEARCH

Central Florida · Monthly Report

September 2026 Market Pulse

Jon Brooks

Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · Housing Market Analyst · jon@movewithmomentum.com

Stellar MLS · September 2026
Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07

Median sold · SF

$386,905+0.5%

monthly median

Same-home appreciation

n/a

3,458,818 records - repeat-sales pass skipped for size

Days on market

40-11.1%

list → close, median

New contracts (September)

1,649-81.1%

pipeline thinning

Months of supply

4.1SF

balanced

Sold over list

10%+17.5%

buyer competition

Balanced, firm · Cooling

A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: flat prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Down 2 points from August (55). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.

Supply 58Speed 67Over-list 34

Jon Brooks

Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · Housing Market Analyst

jon@movewithmomentum.com

Published October 7, 2026
by Momentum Housing Research
Stellar MLS data · closings through 2026-10-07

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Executive summary

The signature finding

More sales, prices flat — September in one line.

The median was $386,905 (+0.5% YoY) and $/sq ft -0.1%; Closings up 0.7% YoY; new contracts down 81.1%.

$386,905

Median price — flat YoY

-81%

New contracts vs a year ago — the pipeline is thinning

n/a

Of current active listings have cut their price (point-in-time, as of 2026-10-07)

Median $386,905, flat year over year; $/sq ft -0.1%.
Homes sold in a median 40 days; 10% sold over list; supply 4.1 months.
Growth (YoY median) led by Putnam +28.4%, Brevard +18.6%; Hernando down 7.8%.
Momentum Market Score: 53/100 — Balanced, firm. Prices flat, contracts down 81.1%.

Five biggest surprises

New contracts fell 81% YoY — the sharpest cooling signal, hidden beneath the price headline.
New construction was 20% of closings — builders buying demand with incentives.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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The market in eight charts

Median price · 25 years

$386,905 — flat vs September 2025.

New contracts per month · leading indicator

1,649 in September, -81% YoY — demand cooling before prices show it.

Appreciation — four measures

Constant-mix reweights this month by the prior year price tiers.

Median price change by county · YoY

Hillsborough leads on volume; Putnam leads on growth.

Days on market · 12 months

40 days — faster 11.1% than a year ago.

Share of sales by price tier · 25 years

$600K+ is 20% of sales — the upmarket shift that moves the median.

Affordability · monthly payment for the median home

$2,049/mo at 6.95% (20% down, 30-yr), +0.5% YoY.

Share of closings over list price · 25 years

10% of September closings sold over the original asking price.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Neighborhood heat map (by ZIP)

Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026

Every ZIP in the Stellar MLS footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Casselberry ZIPs run hot; Placida is the slow end.

Hottest — fastest & most competitive

ZIP · city	Sales	DOM	Over	Median
32707 · Casselberry	70	6	27%	$422,500
32803 · Orlando	65	10	9%	$545,000
32953 · Merritt Island	19	11	5%	$445,000
33626 · Tampa	52	12	10%	$700,000
32825 · Orlando	109	12	13%	$425,000
33614 · Tampa	49	12	14%	$425,000
32750 · Longwood	54	12	15%	$417,000

Coolest — slowest to sell

ZIP · city	Sales	DOM	Over	Median
33946 · Placida	27	174	4%	$595,000
34236 · Sarasota	23	161	0%	$3,700,000
34228 · Longboat Key	24	150	4%	$2,197,500
34217 · Holmes Beach	39	111	0%	$1,650,000
33706 · St Pete Beach	64	106	0%	$1,225,000
33872 · Sebring	26	104	12%	$296,450
33870 · Sebring	16	101	6%	$218,250

ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Demand & the contract pipeline

Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 81.1% YoY. And n/a of active listings have already cut price.

Single-family pipeline, September 2026

Stage	Count	What it means
Active (available)	44,566	Listed, not under contract
Active under contract	0	Contingent — still taking backups
Pending	8,943	Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September	1,649	By contract date — down 81.1% YoY
Months of supply	4.1	Active ÷ monthly closings — balanced

Listings failing to sell — over time

Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year

Share of listings leaving the market without closing.

In September, 0 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 13,602 closings — roughly a 0% pull rate. A modest failed-listing share: most homes that list are finding a buyer.

Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?

The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Rates & affordability

The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $2,049/month with 20% down, +0.5% from a year ago. Cash buyers were n/a of September closings.

Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.

What this means — for buyers & sellers

If you're buying

Move decisively on well-priced homes. 10% still sell over list and 40 days is the median wait.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are flat; the market is steady.

If you're selling

Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~40 days.
Expect negotiation. 10% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.

By property type

Closed sales by property type, September 2026

Type	Closed	Median	YoY	$/sq ft	DOM	Cash
Single-family	9,392	$386,905	+0.5%	$213	40	n/a
Townhouse	1,201	$305,000	-3.2%	$199	47	n/a
Condominium	1,312	$219,000	+2.6%	$185	63	n/a

Condos are softest (+2.6% YoY, 63 days) and most cash-reliant (n/a). New construction was 20% of single-family closings.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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New construction

New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)

Now ~20% of single-family sales.

About one in 5 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.

County breakdown

Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price

County	Closed	Median	YoY	vs 2022 peak	DOM	Cash
Hillsborough	1,034	$417,500	-2.9%	-2.5%	32	n/a
Orange	873	$510,000	+3.7%	+13.0%	32	n/a
Polk	816	$327,200	-0.8%	-5.1%	41	n/a
Pasco	694	$370,000	+0.0%	-4.3%	41	n/a
Pinellas	677	$465,000	+8.1%	+4.6%	30	n/a
Marion	634	$280,000	-1.8%	-2.2%	58	n/a
Sarasota	617	$480,000	+3.3%	-5.7%	42	n/a
Manatee	578	$485,000	+3.2%	-11.8%	46	n/a
Lake	507	$395,000	+0.4%	+3.0%	41	n/a
Osceola	437	$411,990	-3.5%	-6.2%	44	n/a
Volusia	434	$349,700	-1.5%	+2.1%	34	n/a
Charlotte	377	$349,990	+7.7%	-9.1%	53	n/a

Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new

All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Stellar MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.

Sold listings — this month & year-to-date

Price band	2026	2025	%chg	YTD	YTD-1	%chg
Under 100,000	273	238	+14.7%	2604	2134	+22.0%
100,000-119,999	165	157	+5.1%	1545	1214	+27.3%
120,000-139,999	226	230	-1.7%	2291	1729	+32.5%
140,000-159,999	267	242	+10.3%	2520	2148	+17.3%
160,000-179,999	280	296	-5.4%	2724	2419	+12.6%
180,000-199,999	290	286	+1.4%	2937	2499	+17.5%
200,000-249,999	1176	1133	+3.8%	10377	8942	+16.0%
250,000-299,999	1607	1521	+5.7%	15167	13293	+14.1%
300,000-399,999	3315	3349	-1.0%	30971	28628	+8.2%
400,000-499,999	1821	1873	-2.8%	17750	15724	+12.9%
500,000-749,999	1829	1733	+5.5%	17851	15154	+17.8%
750,000-999,999	609	593	+2.7%	6050	5023	+20.4%
1,000,000+	697	596	+16.9%	7031	5364	+31.1%
Totals	12555	12247	+2.5%	119818	104271	+14.9%

Pending — contracts written in September still open

Price band	September	Share
Under 100,000	0	0.0%
100,000-119,999	0	0.0%
120,000-139,999	0	0.0%
140,000-159,999	0	0.0%
160,000-179,999	0	0.0%
180,000-199,999	0	0.0%
200,000-249,999	0	0.0%
250,000-299,999	0	0.0%
300,000-399,999	0	0.0%
400,000-499,999	0	0.0%
500,000-749,999	0	0.0%
750,000-999,999	0	0.0%
1,000,000+	0	0.0%

Active listings — current for-sale inventory

Price band	Count	Share
Under 100,000	1308	1.9%
100,000-119,999	952	1.4%
120,000-139,999	1391	2.1%
140,000-159,999	1471	2.2%
160,000-179,999	1752	2.6%
180,000-199,999	1939	2.9%
200,000-249,999	5514	8.2%
250,000-299,999	7793	11.6%
300,000-399,999	15730	23.4%
400,000-499,999	9699	14.4%
500,000-749,999	9800	14.6%
750,000-999,999	3791	5.6%
1,000,000+	6033	9.0%

Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 67,173 active residential listings.

New listings — came on market in September (still listed)

Price band	Count	Share
Under 100,000	218	1.5%
100,000-119,999	150	1.0%
120,000-139,999	257	1.8%
140,000-159,999	266	1.8%
160,000-179,999	349	2.4%
180,000-199,999	410	2.8%
200,000-249,999	1212	8.4%
250,000-299,999	1689	11.7%
300,000-399,999	3647	25.2%
400,000-499,999	2276	15.7%
500,000-749,999	2142	14.8%
750,000-999,999	800	5.5%
1,000,000+	1067	7.4%

14,483 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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The numbers — single-family reference

September 2026 (Stellar MLS region)

Metric	September 2026	vs. September 2025	vs. August 2026
Median sale price	$386,905	+0.5%	-0.8%
Average sale price	$509,619	+5.1%	+2.1%
Closed sales	9,392	+0.7%	-5.5%
New contracts written	1,649	-81.1%	-77.1%
Median days on market	40	-11.1%	+11.1%
Median $/sq ft	$213	-0.1%	-0.2%
Received vs. original list	95.9%	+1.0%	-0.3%
Received vs. final list	98.5%	+0.3%	-0.1%
Closed over list price	10.1%	+17.5%	-3.0%
Cash share	n/a	—	—

Single-family, Stellar MLS region. Computed from 9,392 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.

Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test

We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 0 in January 2021 and peaked at 88 in April 2022; today it reads 32.

Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026

0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.

What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier

Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.33 across 70 monthly readings since 2005.

In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +4.9% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved -3.5%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Central Florida · September 2026

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Momentum Forecast · next six months

Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-81.1% YoY), active price cuts (n/a), days on market (down 11.1% YoY) and months of supply (4.1). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.

Median priceheadline, YoY

● 65% Flat to slightly lower ● 25% Down 2-4% ● 10% Up 2%+

Days on marketmarket pace

● 65% Shortening ● 25% Flat ● 10% Reverses

New contractsdemand, YoY

● 65% Still falling ● 25% Stabilizing ● 10% Reverses

● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.

Methodology & the Momentum Market Pulse™

The Momentum Market Pulse™ is an independent monthly research product. All market figures are computed by Momentum Realty directly from individual Stellar MLS closed records (not a third-party dashboard), for single-family homes in the Orlando, Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Lakeland and the I-4 corridor region unless noted, cleaned for data-entry errors and de-duplicated by listing ID. Medians throughout. "Same-home appreciation" matches repeat sales of the same parcel across the 25-year archive: second sale in the trailing 12 months, first sale 1-3 years earlier so the figure is comparable with a 12-month median change (median annualized change); owners who bought 5+ years ago are reported separately. "Constant-mix" reweights this month's price-tier medians by last year's tier shares. "New contracts" count closings by purchase-contract month (estimated from on-market date plus days on market where the feed omits the contract date) plus contracts still pending at the snapshot; inventory stages are point-in-time as of the pull. "Failed to sell" counts listings that left the market expired, withdrawn or canceled against those that closed. The Market Score (0-100) equally weights months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. Late-reported closings keep arriving for several weeks; the edition is refreshed in place. Aggregates only; no individual listing is identified. Listings courtesy of Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID. Momentum Realty is a licensed Florida and Georgia brokerage; this report is market information, not an appraisal or investment advice. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC · movewithmomentum.com · (904) 351-6461.

Every market, every month

Momentum publishes this same report for every MLS market we cover in Florida and Georgia. September 2026 editions: Northeast Florida · Palm Beaches · South Florida · Daytona Beach · Space Coast · Pensacola · Emerald Coast · Panama City · Southwest Florida · Florida Keys · Golden Isles · Georgia. Find any city, county or ZIP at movewithmomentum.com/reports.