Emerald Coast MLS · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$439,000+7.9%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+1.8%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
49-12.5%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
626+5.4%
pipeline building
Months of supply
6.3SF
buyer-leaning
Sold over list
12%+45.4%
buyer competition
Moderate buyer advantage · Warming
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 7.9% prices year over year, leading indicators firming. Up 1 points from August (31). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Prices aren't really rising 8% — the market is just selling bigger, higher-end homes.
The median was $439,000 (+7.9% YoY), but the same house, sold twice, moved +1.8% a year. The gap is mix: the share of sales under $200K went 6%→2% and $600K+ went 28%→33%. Read $/sq ft (n/a) and same-home resales — not the median — for what a home is really doing.
$439,000
Median price — up 7.9% YoY
+5%
New contracts vs a year ago — the pipeline is building
49%
Of current active listings have cut their price (point-in-time, as of 2026-10-07)
Median up 7.9% YoY; same-home appreciation was +1.8%/yr — the headline is inflated by larger, higher-end homes selling.
Homes sold in a median 49 days; 12% sold over list; supply 6.3 months.
Growth (YoY median) led by Bay +29.5%, Okaloosa +10.0%; Escambia down 3.3%.
Momentum Market Score: 32/100 — Moderate buyer advantage. Prices up 7.9%, contracts up 5.4%.
Five biggest surprises
But real appreciation was only +1.8%/yr. Same homes barely moved; the median rose on mix.
49% of active listings have cut price — a seller-market crack in plain sight.
46% of listings leaving the market failed to sell (566 expired, withdrawn or canceled vs 663 closed).
Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.6%/yr; those who bought in the last 1-3 years are at +1.8%/yr — the easy money was pre-2022.
New construction was 0% of closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the Emerald Coast MLS footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Milton ZIPs run hot; Miramar Beach is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32570 · Milton
18
14
33%
$454,900
32405 · Panama City
16
18
6%
$360,750
32578 · Niceville
150
26
15%
$532,775
32566 · Navarre
137
29
9%
$459,900
32547 · Fort Walton Beach
82
30
9%
$363,600
32548 · Fort Walton Beach
52
34
17%
$354,000
32536 · Crestview
114
37
22%
$341,000
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32550 · Miramar Beach
75
81
8%
$950,000
32413 · Panama City Beach
66
75
9%
$645,000
32541 · Destin
99
69
4%
$925,000
32404 · Panama City
26
68
19%
$345,000
32433 · Defuniak Springs
47
66
4%
$249,888
32583 · Milton
120
62
9%
$319,900
32567 · Laurel Hill
21
60
10%
$285,000
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is up 5.4% YoY. And 49% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
4,156
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
0
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
1,017
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
626
By contract date — up 5.4% YoY
Months of supply
6.3
Active ÷ monthly closings — buyer-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 566 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 663 closings — roughly a 46% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts up 5.4% and the 49% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +7.9% YoY vs same-home +1.8%/yr across 482 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.6%/yr (1,607 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $2,325/month with 20% down, +7.9% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 0% of September closings, 0% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 49% of listings have cut price and contracts are up 5.4% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Compare $/sq ft, not just price. Mix moves the median month to month.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~2%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~49 days.
Expect negotiation. 12% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
651
$439,000
+7.9%
n/a
49
0%
Townhouse
89
$301,900
-7.1%
n/a
59
0%
Condominium
154
$494,375
-12.5%
n/a
76
0%
Condos are softest (-12.5% YoY, 76 days) and most cash-reliant (0%). New construction was 0% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~0% of single-family sales.
The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Okaloosa
233
$385,000
+10.0%
+5.5%
43
0%
Walton
227
$820,000
-1.3%
-5.7%
56
0%
Santa Rosa
112
$363,500
-1.8%
-12.5%
48
0%
Bay
56
$557,500
+29.5%
+0.5%
68
0%
Escambia
16
$328,700
-3.3%
-9.3%
33
0%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Emerald Coast MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
3
5
-40.0%
79
62
+27.4%
100,000-119,999
4
4
+0.0%
30
27
+11.1%
120,000-139,999
10
6
+66.7%
51
51
+0.0%
140,000-159,999
8
8
+0.0%
82
74
+10.8%
160,000-179,999
13
14
-7.1%
115
80
+43.8%
180,000-199,999
18
21
-14.3%
155
120
+29.2%
200,000-249,999
62
45
+37.8%
537
437
+22.9%
250,000-299,999
106
104
+1.9%
875
720
+21.5%
300,000-399,999
211
211
+0.0%
2014
1690
+19.2%
400,000-499,999
108
123
-12.2%
1173
954
+23.0%
500,000-749,999
139
128
+8.6%
1386
1162
+19.3%
750,000-999,999
67
58
+15.5%
660
496
+33.1%
1,000,000+
164
147
+11.6%
1443
1026
+40.6%
Totals
913
874
+4.5%
8600
6899
+24.7%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
0
0.0%
100,000-119,999
2
0.5%
120,000-139,999
2
0.5%
140,000-159,999
5
1.3%
160,000-179,999
4
1.0%
180,000-199,999
5
1.3%
200,000-249,999
17
4.3%
250,000-299,999
40
10.1%
300,000-399,999
96
24.2%
400,000-499,999
53
13.4%
500,000-749,999
65
16.4%
750,000-999,999
33
8.3%
1,000,000+
74
18.7%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
22
0.5%
100,000-119,999
11
0.3%
120,000-139,999
18
0.4%
140,000-159,999
20
0.5%
160,000-179,999
26
0.6%
180,000-199,999
72
1.7%
200,000-249,999
203
4.9%
250,000-299,999
256
6.2%
300,000-399,999
710
17.1%
400,000-499,999
448
10.8%
500,000-749,999
767
18.5%
750,000-999,999
421
10.1%
1,000,000+
1182
28.4%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 4,156 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
4
0.4%
100,000-119,999
2
0.2%
120,000-139,999
6
0.7%
140,000-159,999
9
1.0%
160,000-179,999
10
1.1%
180,000-199,999
19
2.1%
200,000-249,999
53
5.9%
250,000-299,999
65
7.3%
300,000-399,999
156
17.4%
400,000-499,999
106
11.8%
500,000-749,999
168
18.8%
750,000-999,999
81
9.1%
1,000,000+
216
24.1%
895 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
Single-family, Emerald Coast MLS region. Computed from 651 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 2 in January 2007 and peaked at 90 in July 2021; today it reads 28.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.08 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +1.7% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved +1.4%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Emerald Coast · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (+5.4% YoY), active price cuts (49%), days on market (down 12.5% YoY) and months of supply (6.3). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Up 2-5% ●25% Flat ●10% Down 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●65% Shortening ●25% Flat ●10% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●55% Still rising ●30% Stabilizing ●15% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
