Florida Keys MLS · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$1,290,000+24.6%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+3.4%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
84-1.8%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
50-45.7%
pipeline thinning
Months of supply
6.9SF
buyer-leaning
Sold over list
0%-100.0%
buyer competition
Strong buyer advantage · Cooling
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 24.6% prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Down 6 points from August (16). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Prices aren't really rising 25% — the market is just selling bigger, higher-end homes.
The median was $1,290,000 (+24.6% YoY), but the same house, sold twice, moved +3.4% a year. The gap is mix: the share of sales under $200K went 0%→0% and $600K+ went 89%→95%. Read $/sq ft (n/a) and same-home resales — not the median — for what a home is really doing.
$1,290,000
Median price — up 24.6% YoY
-46%
New contracts vs a year ago — the pipeline is thinning
46%
Of current active listings have cut their price (point-in-time, as of 2026-10-07)
Median up 24.6% YoY; same-home appreciation was +3.4%/yr — the headline is inflated by larger, higher-end homes selling.
Homes sold in a median 84 days; 0% sold over list; supply 6.9 months.
Momentum Market Score: 10/100 — Strong buyer advantage. Prices up 24.6%, contracts down 45.7%.
Five biggest surprises
But real appreciation was only +3.4%/yr. Same homes barely moved; the median rose on mix.
New contracts fell 46% YoY — the sharpest cooling signal, hidden beneath the price headline.
46% of active listings have cut price — a seller-market crack in plain sight.
50% of listings leaving the market failed to sell (150 expired, withdrawn or canceled vs 149 closed).
Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.6%/yr; those who bought in the last 1-3 years are at +3.4%/yr — the easy money was pre-2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the Florida Keys MLS footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Sugarloaf Key ZIPs run hot; Big Pine Key is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
33042 · Sugarloaf Key
52
64
2%
$1,212,500
33040 · Key West
69
67
1%
$1,125,000
33037 · Key Largo
53
74
2%
$990,000
33070 · Plantation Key
27
79
4%
$1,175,000
33050 · Marathon
40
80
5%
$1,317,500
33036 · Lower Matecumbe
17
85
0%
$2,425,000
33043 · Big Pine Key
33
87
0%
$946,870
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
33043 · Big Pine Key
33
87
0%
$946,870
33036 · Lower Matecumbe
17
85
0%
$2,425,000
33050 · Marathon
40
80
5%
$1,317,500
33070 · Plantation Key
27
79
4%
$1,175,000
33037 · Key Largo
53
74
2%
$990,000
33040 · Key West
69
67
1%
$1,125,000
33042 · Sugarloaf Key
52
64
2%
$1,212,500
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 45.7% YoY. And 46% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
699
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
153
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
39
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
50
By contract date — down 45.7% YoY
Months of supply
6.9
Active ÷ monthly closings — buyer-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 150 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 149 closings — roughly a 50% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts down 45.7% and the 46% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +24.6% YoY vs same-home +3.4%/yr across 95 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +7.6%/yr (447 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $6,831/month with 20% down, +24.6% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 0% of September closings, 0% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 46% of listings have cut price and contracts are down 45.7% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction and condos.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~3%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~84 days.
Expect negotiation. 0% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
100
$1,290,000
+24.6%
n/a
84
0%
Townhouse
9
$615,000
-14.9%
n/a
38
0%
Condominium
20
$545,000
-10.9%
n/a
60
0%
Condos are softest (-10.9% YoY, 60 days) and most cash-reliant (0%). New construction was 26% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~21% of single-family sales — near the 25-year high of 21%.
About one in 4 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Monroe
100
$1,290,000
+24.6%
+9.8%
84
0%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Florida Keys MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
0
0
—
0
0
—
100,000-119,999
0
0
—
0
0
—
120,000-139,999
0
0
—
2
1
+100.0%
140,000-159,999
0
0
—
0
0
—
160,000-179,999
0
0
—
0
0
—
180,000-199,999
0
0
—
1
0
—
200,000-249,999
2
1
+100.0%
13
10
+30.0%
250,000-299,999
1
4
-75.0%
21
18
+16.7%
300,000-399,999
7
4
+75.0%
85
66
+28.8%
400,000-499,999
9
6
+50.0%
75
64
+17.2%
500,000-749,999
33
38
-13.2%
312
336
-7.1%
750,000-999,999
20
22
-9.1%
273
273
+0.0%
1,000,000+
79
61
+29.5%
731
612
+19.4%
Totals
151
136
+11.0%
1513
1380
+9.6%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
0
0.0%
100,000-119,999
0
0.0%
120,000-139,999
0
0.0%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
0
0.0%
180,000-199,999
0
0.0%
200,000-249,999
0
0.0%
250,000-299,999
0
0.0%
300,000-399,999
0
0.0%
400,000-499,999
1
5.3%
500,000-749,999
1
5.3%
750,000-999,999
5
26.3%
1,000,000+
12
63.2%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
1
0.1%
100,000-119,999
0
0.0%
120,000-139,999
0
0.0%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
0
0.0%
180,000-199,999
0
0.0%
200,000-249,999
2
0.2%
250,000-299,999
11
1.0%
300,000-399,999
39
3.4%
400,000-499,999
58
5.1%
500,000-749,999
221
19.5%
750,000-999,999
217
19.1%
1,000,000+
587
51.7%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 1,136 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
0
0.0%
100,000-119,999
0
0.0%
120,000-139,999
0
0.0%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
0
0.0%
180,000-199,999
0
0.0%
200,000-249,999
0
0.0%
250,000-299,999
1
0.5%
300,000-399,999
8
4.3%
400,000-499,999
11
5.9%
500,000-749,999
44
23.7%
750,000-999,999
40
21.5%
1,000,000+
82
44.1%
186 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
Single-family, Florida Keys MLS region. Computed from 100 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 0 in August 2006 and peaked at 65 in May 2022; today it reads 0.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.14 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Florida Keys · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-45.7% YoY), active price cuts (46%), days on market (down 1.8% YoY) and months of supply (6.9). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Flat to slightly lower ●25% Down 2-4% ●10% Up 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●45% Shortening ●35% Flat ●20% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still falling ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
