Pensacola MLS · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$329,915-0.0%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+3.4%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
40-4.8%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
357-40.5%
pipeline thinning
Months of supply
3.4SF
seller-leaning
Sold over list
13%+24.0%
buyer competition
Balanced, firm · Cooling
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: flat prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Down 3 points from August (54). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Prices are rising more than the 0% median shows — the market is selling smaller, lower-end homes.
The median was $329,915 (-0.0% YoY), but the same house, sold twice, moved +3.4% a year. The gap is mix: the share of sales under $200K went 11%→11% and $600K+ went 13%→12%. Read $/sq ft (-3.2%) and same-home resales — not the median — for what a home is really doing.
$329,915
Median price — flat YoY
-40%
New contracts vs a year ago — the pipeline is thinning
50%
Of current active listings have cut their price (point-in-time, as of 2026-10-07)
Median flat YoY; same-home appreciation was +3.4%/yr — the headline understates it; smaller homes are what sold.
Homes sold in a median 40 days; 13% sold over list; supply 3.4 months.
Growth (YoY median) led by Escambia - Fl +2.6%, Santa Rosa -0.4%; Santa Rosa flat.
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the Pensacola MLS footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Pensacola ZIPs run hot; Pensacola is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32505 · Pensacola
67
20
25%
$172,000
32571 · Pace
248
23
19%
$355,104
32563 · Gulf Breeze
154
26
12%
$419,950
32570 · Milton
150
26
21%
$299,700
32506 · Pensacola
132
30
17%
$279,500
32566 · Navarre
110
34
8%
$450,900
32534 · Pensacola
48
34
17%
$264,500
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32502 · Pensacola
23
96
9%
$450,000
32561 · Gulf Breeze
30
66
3%
$975,000
32565 · Jay
19
59
16%
$320,000
32501 · Pensacola
39
56
3%
$325,000
36502 · Atmore
23
49
22%
$200,000
32533 · Cantonment
209
49
9%
$320,000
32583 · Milton
226
48
10%
$321,900
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 40.5% YoY. And 50% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
2,180
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
555
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
480
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
357
By contract date — down 40.5% YoY
Months of supply
3.4
Active ÷ monthly closings — seller-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 0 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 725 closings — roughly a 0% pull rate. A modest failed-listing share: most homes that list are finding a buyer.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median -0.0% YoY vs same-home +3.4%/yr across 537 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.7%/yr (1,663 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $1,747/month with 20% down, -0.0% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 19% of September closings, 53% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 50% of listings have cut price and contracts are down 40.5% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction and condos.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~3%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~40 days.
Expect negotiation. 13% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type — and why condos lag
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
694
$329,915
-0.0%
$180
40
19%
Condominium
55
$384,000
-37.6%
$341
96
53%
Condos are softest (-37.6% YoY, 96 days) and most cash-reliant (53%). New construction was 29% of single-family closings.
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~26% of single-family sales — near the 25-year high of 28%.
About one in 3 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Escambia - Fl
366
$307,950
+2.6%
-4.9%
46
26%
Santa Rosa
291
$353,455
-0.4%
-5.7%
36
11%
Okaloosa
14
$305,950
-19.1%
-25.4%
16
14%
Other Counties
13
$212,000
-24.4%
-10.9%
65
23%
Baldwin
6
$746,250
+72.5%
+95.3%
46
33%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Pensacola MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
20
24
-16.7%
168
176
-4.5%
100,000-119,999
11
9
+22.2%
91
97
-6.2%
120,000-139,999
16
12
+33.3%
99
124
-20.2%
140,000-159,999
17
16
+6.2%
141
138
+2.2%
160,000-179,999
14
12
+16.7%
161
144
+11.8%
180,000-199,999
26
16
+62.5%
180
208
-13.5%
200,000-249,999
89
72
+23.6%
728
748
-2.7%
250,000-299,999
117
125
-6.4%
1095
1029
+6.4%
300,000-399,999
220
205
+7.3%
1997
1968
+1.5%
400,000-499,999
93
99
-6.1%
916
784
+16.8%
500,000-749,999
84
78
+7.7%
820
691
+18.7%
750,000-999,999
30
36
-16.7%
305
270
+13.0%
1,000,000+
28
28
+0.0%
266
224
+18.8%
Totals
765
732
+4.5%
6967
6601
+5.5%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
9
4.3%
100,000-119,999
1
0.5%
120,000-139,999
1
0.5%
140,000-159,999
3
1.4%
160,000-179,999
2
1.0%
180,000-199,999
0
0.0%
200,000-249,999
20
9.6%
250,000-299,999
35
16.7%
300,000-399,999
74
35.4%
400,000-499,999
40
19.1%
500,000-749,999
17
8.1%
750,000-999,999
4
1.9%
1,000,000+
3
1.4%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
39
1.5%
100,000-119,999
25
1.0%
120,000-139,999
43
1.7%
140,000-159,999
47
1.8%
160,000-179,999
60
2.4%
180,000-199,999
64
2.5%
200,000-249,999
197
7.7%
250,000-299,999
307
12.1%
300,000-399,999
705
27.7%
400,000-499,999
365
14.3%
500,000-749,999
334
13.1%
750,000-999,999
171
6.7%
1,000,000+
189
7.4%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 2,546 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
0
0.0%
100,000-119,999
0
0.0%
120,000-139,999
0
0.0%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
0
0.0%
180,000-199,999
0
0.0%
200,000-249,999
0
0.0%
250,000-299,999
0
0.0%
300,000-399,999
0
0.0%
400,000-499,999
0
0.0%
500,000-749,999
0
0.0%
750,000-999,999
0
0.0%
1,000,000+
0
0.0%
0 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
Single-family, Pensacola MLS region. Computed from 694 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 4 in January 2009 and peaked at 92 in April 2021; today it reads 50.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.30 across 253 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +6.3% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved +0.6%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-40.5% YoY), active price cuts (50%), days on market (down 4.8% YoY) and months of supply (3.4). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Flat to slightly lower ●25% Down 2-4% ●10% Up 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●45% Shortening ●35% Flat ●20% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still falling ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
