Space Coast MLS · September 2026 Computed from closed records through 2026-10-07
Median sold · SF
$380,000+1.3%
monthly median
Same-home appreciation
+1.9%/yr
same home, bought 1-3 yrs ago
Days on market
35-25.5%
list → close, median
New contracts (September)
559-32.7%
pipeline thinning
Months of supply
3.3SF
seller-leaning
Sold over list
11%+98.7%
buyer competition
Balanced, firm · Cooling
A single 0-100 read of seller vs. buyer advantage, blending months of supply, days on market, the share selling over list, and the share of active listings cutting price. September: up 1.3% prices year over year, leading indicators softening. Up 1 points from August (50). *August is estimated from that month's closed sales with supply and price-cut inputs held at current readings; from next month, prior scores are the published ones.
Where homes sell fastest · Single-family, July 2026–September 2026
Every ZIP in the Space Coast MLS footprint with 15+ single-family closings in the last three months, shaded by days on market — deep teal is fastest, amber slowest. Satellite Beach ZIPs run hot; Palm Bay is the slow end.
Hottest — fastest & most competitive
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32937 · Satellite Beach
75
14
8%
$600,000
32934 · Melbourne
51
18
12%
$499,900
32927 · Cocoa
104
21
9%
$334,000
32953 · Merritt Island
80
24
9%
$471,000
32780 · Titusville
107
25
9%
$349,000
32907 · Palm Bay
262
26
14%
$332,618
32955 · Rockledge
127
27
9%
$460,000
Coolest — slowest to sell
ZIP · city
Sales
DOM
Over
Median
32908 · Palm Bay
160
56
13%
$329,994
32796 · Titusville
76
50
11%
$323,250
32931 · Cocoa Beach
24
48
12%
$832,500
32922 · Cocoa
33
45
9%
$215,000
32901 · Melbourne
66
42
8%
$300,000
32903 · Indialantic
53
42
6%
$750,000
32909 · Palm Bay
267
41
10%
$347,000
ZIP boundaries: U.S. Census ZCTA. Tables cover ZIPs with ≥15 single-family closings in the trailing three months.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
Active-under-contract and pending are tracked separately — AUC deals are contingent and can fall through; pending have cleared contingencies. The leading signal, new contracts, is down 32.7% YoY. And 50% of active listings have already cut price, a softening signal beneath the price headline.
Single-family pipeline, September 2026
Stage
Count
What it means
Active (available)
2,430
Listed, not under contract
Active under contract
449
Contingent — still taking backups
Pending
742
Contingencies cleared — headed to closing
New under contract in September
559
By contract date — down 32.7% YoY
Months of supply
3.3
Active ÷ monthly closings — seller-leaning
Listings failing to sell — over time
Pull rate — % of listings expired or withdrawn · by year
Share of listings leaving the market without closing.
In September, 496 listings expired, were withdrawn or canceled against 915 closings — roughly a 35% pull rate. Rising failed listings pair with new contracts down 32.7% and the 50% price-cut share: the market is asking sellers to price right the first time or sit.
Median vs. "sold twice" — what's the difference?
The median just averages whatever happened to sell that month: if a wave of larger, higher-end homes closes, it jumps even if no single house gained. Sold twice finds the identical house that sold 1-3 years ago and again in the last 12 months and compares the two prices — since it is the same home both times, and the hold is short, that gap is comparable with the 12-month median change. This month: median +1.3% YoY vs same-home +1.9%/yr across 635 short-hold pairs. Owners who bought 5+ years ago have averaged +6.5%/yr (2,467 pairs) — most of that came before 2022.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
The 30-year fixed is about 6.95% (latest rate carried on our county pages), which puts the payment on the median single-family home at $2,012/month with 20% down, +1.3% from a year ago. Cash buyers were 23% of September closings, 62% of condos.
Rate: the figure our county scorecards carry (Freddie Mac PMMS via the national data lane). Payment: principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed.
What this means — for buyers & sellers
If you're buying
Negotiate. 50% of listings have cut price and contracts are down 32.7% — more leverage than the median suggests.
Ask for concessions (rate buydowns, closing costs) — especially on new construction.
Don't wait for a crash. Same-home prices are still up ~2%; a softening, not a collapse.
If you're selling
Price correctly the first time. Homes that cut price sit; well-priced homes still go under contract in ~35 days.
Expect negotiation. 11% still sell over list, but the rest don't.
Condition matters more now. With more choice, buyers pass on homes that need work.
By property type
Closed sales by property type, September 2026
Type
Closed
Median
YoY
$/sq ft
DOM
Cash
Single-family
811
$380,000
+1.3%
$216
35
23%
Townhouse
38
$305,032
+3.4%
$218
52
34%
Condominium
132
$230,000
+4.8%
$212
48
62%
Condos are softest (+4.8% YoY, 48 days) and most cash-reliant (62%). New construction was 18% of single-family closings.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
New construction · share of single-family sales (12-mo rolling)
Now ~17% of single-family sales.
About one in 5 single-family sales is a brand-new home. The engine is the rate-lock: owners holding low-rate mortgages won't sell, so resale supply stays choked and builders fill the vacuum — buying the demand with incentives. It is the mix-shift from another angle: the market is increasingly selling newer homes, not just bigger ones.
County breakdown
Single-family by county — "YoY" = year-over-year change in median price
County
Closed
Median
YoY
vs 2022 peak
DOM
Cash
Brevard
713
$380,000
+1.3%
+1.3%
35
22%
Indian River
55
$350,000
-7.3%
-13.6%
35
47%
Volusia
10
$421,500
+47.9%
+6.1%
32
10%
St. Lucie
9
$440,000
-14.6%
—
45
56%
Osceola
5
$349,500
—
—
42
40%
Orange
5
$545,000
-0.9%
—
74
20%
Median-price YoY swings on low volume in small counties. "vs 2022 peak" compares this month's median to each county's highest 2022 month.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
Price-band breakdown — sold, pending, active & new
All residential (single-family, condo & townhouse), Space Coast MLS region, computed from individual records. Sold is bucketed by closed price; pending counts listings still under contract by the month they went under contract (by list price); active and new listings are the current snapshot by list price.
Sold listings — this month & year-to-date
Price band
2026
2025
%chg
YTD
YTD-1
%chg
Under 100,000
17
15
+13.3%
164
138
+18.8%
100,000-119,999
10
13
-23.1%
121
100
+21.0%
120,000-139,999
16
17
-5.9%
169
180
-6.1%
140,000-159,999
26
30
-13.3%
241
235
+2.6%
160,000-179,999
21
27
-22.2%
268
259
+3.5%
180,000-199,999
30
31
-3.2%
266
291
-8.6%
200,000-249,999
73
84
-13.1%
774
783
-1.1%
250,000-299,999
119
142
-16.2%
1211
1280
-5.4%
300,000-399,999
316
311
+1.6%
2958
3031
-2.4%
400,000-499,999
134
141
-5.0%
1405
1405
+0.0%
500,000-749,999
163
164
-0.6%
1611
1569
+2.7%
750,000-999,999
62
60
+3.3%
534
548
-2.6%
1,000,000+
46
42
+9.5%
395
391
+1.0%
Totals
1033
1077
-4.1%
10117
10210
-0.9%
Pending — contracts written in September still open
Price band
September
Share
Under 100,000
1
0.3%
100,000-119,999
0
0.0%
120,000-139,999
1
0.3%
140,000-159,999
0
0.0%
160,000-179,999
2
0.7%
180,000-199,999
6
2.1%
200,000-249,999
20
7.0%
250,000-299,999
38
13.3%
300,000-399,999
98
34.3%
400,000-499,999
52
18.2%
500,000-749,999
43
15.0%
750,000-999,999
16
5.6%
1,000,000+
9
3.1%
Active listings — current for-sale inventory
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
29
0.8%
100,000-119,999
35
1.0%
120,000-139,999
58
1.6%
140,000-159,999
88
2.4%
160,000-179,999
122
3.4%
180,000-199,999
108
3.0%
200,000-249,999
277
7.6%
250,000-299,999
405
11.2%
300,000-399,999
1071
29.6%
400,000-499,999
519
14.3%
500,000-749,999
483
13.3%
750,000-999,999
186
5.1%
1,000,000+
240
6.6%
Snapshot as of 2026-10-07 — 3,621 active residential listings.
New listings — came on market in September (still listed)
Price band
Count
Share
Under 100,000
7
0.7%
100,000-119,999
10
1.0%
120,000-139,999
15
1.5%
140,000-159,999
23
2.3%
160,000-179,999
27
2.7%
180,000-199,999
33
3.3%
200,000-249,999
88
8.7%
250,000-299,999
120
11.9%
300,000-399,999
321
31.8%
400,000-499,999
148
14.6%
500,000-749,999
134
13.3%
750,000-999,999
47
4.6%
1,000,000+
38
3.8%
1,011 listings with a September on-market date still active at the snapshot.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
Single-family, Space Coast MLS region. Computed from 811 closed records, cleaned for entry errors. "New contracts" = closings by purchase-contract month plus contracts still pending. "Received vs. original list" vs the first asking price; the gap to final list is the pre-sale price cut.
Does the Score work? A 20-year back-test
We computed a closed-sales version of the Momentum Market Score every month back to 2005 (pace, over-list share and price-cut discipline), then measured what the median price actually did over the next six months. It bottomed at 4 in October 2007 and peaked at 90 in April 2022; today it reads 31.
Momentum Market Score · 2005–2026
0 = deep buyer's market, 100 = frenzy.
What happened next · avg 6-mo price change by Score tier
Higher Score → stronger forward price growth, tier by tier. Correlation +0.44 across 256 monthly readings since 2005.
In seller-market months (Score 67+), the median rose +6.3% over the next six months on average; in buyer-market months (0-33) it moved -2.7%. The live cover Score also blends months of supply and the active price-cut share, so the two differ slightly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
MOMENTUM MARKET PULSE™Space Coast · September 2026
Probability-weighted directional readings from this edition's leading indicators — new contracts (-32.7% YoY), active price cuts (50%), days on market (down 25.5% YoY) and months of supply (3.3). The weights follow a fixed rule: an indicator moving strongly in one direction (10%+ YoY) is given 65/25/10; a moderate move 55/30/15; a weak or absent move 45/35/20. Each row sums to 100%.
Median priceheadline, YoY
●65% Flat to slightly lower ●25% Down 2-4% ●10% Up 2%+
Days on marketmarket pace
●65% Shortening ●25% Flat ●10% Reverses
New contractsdemand, YoY
●65% Still falling ●25% Stabilizing ●10% Reverses
Active price cutsshare of listings
●60% Stays elevated ●30% Holds flat ●10% Falls back
● Most likely ● Alternative ● Tail risk Directional model for discussion — not investment advice.
