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Recent Lessons & Home Prices That Went Too Far

Before real estate, I was obsessed with strategy card games. As a kid, I competed internationally and became a U.S. Champion in the Pokémon Trading Card Game, representing the United States abroad. Later, I won college scholarships playing Magic: The Gathering.

What hooked me wasn't just the games, it was the strategy: timing, probability, risk management, and resource allocation. Eventually, that same obsession found its outlet in finance and real estate.

The same mechanics that win card games also build wealth in real estate. Copy the best. Modify and adjust. Practice. Execute. This is exactly how we built our brokerage to nearly $594 million in closed volume across 1,624 transactions in 2025.

Home Prices That Went Too Far

If you feel like home prices don't make any sense anymore, you're not crazy. Over the last few years, real estate prices didn't just rise, they disconnected from reality.

In Jacksonville alone, some neighborhoods are already down 10–20%. That's a correction. 30% is a crash, and that's still on the table in parts of the Sunbelt, depending on the level of new construction in the area.

  • Austin is already down over 26%
  • Cape Coral is down nearly 18%
  • Delistings are up 28%

This is what happens when investors, flippers, and mom-and-pop landlords overextend, and builders overbuild.

What to Expect Next

Sellers who aren't selling are getting angry and pulling homes off the market, hoping for a spring rebound. That means March through May will likely bring a wave of pent-up supply crashing back onto the market at the same time, forcing even more price cuts.

That's what every down-cycle looks like. The agents who thrive in this environment are the ones who understand the data, set realistic expectations with clients, and help them make the best decisions regardless of where the market is heading.

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