22 of 24 counties we can measure at least doubled their listing failure rate between 2021 and 2025, and 11 quadrupled. The median county multiplied 3.9 times. Where that lands is the other half of the story: 19.0 per 100 in Northeast Florida, below the 21.9 to 30.3 band that held from 2013 to 2019, and a third of the 2008 crash peak of 70.7.
Between 2021 and 2025 the share of Florida listings that expired without selling rose in every county we can measure. The median county saw it multiply 3.9 times. That is a violent change and people are right to feel it.
Where it landed is the other half. Northeast Florida finished 2025 at 19.0 per 100, below the 21.9 to 30.3 band that held every year from 2013 to 2019. The 2008 peak was 70.7, roughly 3.7 times today.
The speed is extraordinary. The destination is ordinary. Most of the argument about whether Florida is crashing comes down to which of those two people are looking at, and settling it needs a record long enough to know what normal was.
Expirations per 100 new listings, by year. Three regions with monthly county records deep enough to carry a history. Each region is counted only from the MLS feed that is authoritative for it.
Higher means more listings gave up. The two dashed lines mark the 2008 peak and the 2021 floor.
All three regions trace the same curve, which is the first reason to trust it. Failure rates climbed through 2006 as the bubble ran out of buyers, peaked between 2008 and 2009, stayed above 45 per 100 until 2012, then ground down for a decade. Northeast Florida settled into a 21.9 to 30.3 band from 2013 through 2019 and stayed there.
Then 2021: 10.2 per 100. Practically nothing failed to sell. That number has no precedent anywhere in the series, and it is the number most people still carry around as their sense of a functioning market. Measured against 2021, today looks alarming. Measured against 2003 through 2019, 2025 at 19.0 is unremarkable, and slightly better than 2018 and 2019.
The Santa Rosa line is worth its own sentence. It barely moved during the crash, peaking near 27 while Northeast Florida passed 70. That corner of the panhandle did not have the same bubble to unwind, and the same data that shows a statewide shock also shows that the shock was never evenly spread.
The long chart above is three regions because only three feeds recorded new listings before 2021. Most of Florida can still be measured over the recent stretch, and rather than pick markets we swept every county, each counted only from the MLS feed that is authoritative for it so no listing is counted twice. 24 counties have a complete 2021 to 2025 run and are shown below.
The 2021 floor was not the same everywhere, which is the part a statewide average hides. Manatee County bottomed at 1.9 failures per 100 and 17 of these 24 counties sat under 5, effectively a market where listings did not fail. At the other end Putnam was already at 17.6. By 2025 the range runs 9.0 to 27.1, and the counties that froze hardest are the ones that moved furthest: Charlotte 2.7 to 27.1, Manatee 1.9 to 16.3, Sarasota 2.6 to 19.7. Counties that never froze, mostly in the northeast, show a much flatter move because they had less ground to give back.
What is missing, and why. 10 counties have only part of the window and are left out rather than shown on a shorter footing: Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, DeSoto, Highlands, Levy, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie. 17 have a feed that never populated a new-listings count, so no rate is computable for them at all: Bay, Calhoun, Collier, Escambia, Franklin, Glades, Gulf, Hendry, Holmes, Jackson, Lee, Liberty, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okaloosa, Walton, Washington. Those counties still appear in the current-conditions figures below, which are counted a different way.
Three current readings, from the same underlying records, published in full in our monthly listing reality report. Across 34 counties, 73,800 listings expired or were withdrawn unsold in the trailing 12 months against 365,097 new listings entering, which is 20.2 failures per 100. Of 48,256 active listings with a verifiable original price, 22,865 are asking at least 1% below where they started. Condominiums are 23.8% of active inventory and 31.8% of this year’s failures. · Did buyers get their money back? Losses by purchase year, 2004 to 2026
Those figures count expired plus withdrawn. The history above counts expirations only, because withdrawals were not recorded before 2024. Two honest numbers, measured differently, and worth keeping straight rather than averaging into one.
Everything below changed a number on this page. It is here because a reader who cannot check the corrections cannot check the finding.
Bulk expirations removed. Two months carry an MLS-wide administrative purge rather than a market event, and both were verified before exclusion:
The realMLS case is the clearer one. In November 2023 Duval recorded 8,878 expirations against a monthly baseline near 360, and every other county on that feed spiked in the same month: Clay 35 times its baseline, Putnam 47 times, Baker 45 times. A market does not move in one month across six counties at once and then return to baseline. A database does. Left in, that single month would have added roughly five points to 2023 and invented a spike.
Expirations only, not withdrawals. No feed populates the withdrawn field before 2024. Counting expired plus withdrawn across the whole series would show a rise in 2024 that is a schema change wearing the costume of a market shift.
Two feeds excluded. The Stellar feed covering the Tampa and Orlando region has new-listing counts that swing more than tenfold between eras, 5,972 in 2014 against 77,037 in 2021, with 2015 through 2019 effectively empty and 2020 computing to an impossible 141.9 per 100. It is unusable as history and is not shown. The Miami, Beaches and Space Coast feeds begin in 2024 and are too short.
Start years. A region enters the chart only once expirations are actually populated: 2003 for Northeast Florida and Daytona, 2006 for Santa Rosa. Northeast Florida records zero expirations in 2001 and 2002, which is a gap in the record, not a market where nothing failed.
The current year is not plotted. Expirations concentrate late in the year as spring listings run out their terms, so a partial year reads as an improvement that has not happened.
| Region | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Florida | 14.6 | 26.1 | 21.6 | 40.5 | 62.1 | 70.7 | 59.6 | 52.2 | 49.0 | 36.5 | 28.1 | 30.3 | 27.4 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 21.9 | 22.3 | 17.4 | 10.2 | 14.7 | 22.7 | 17.7 | 19.0 |
| Daytona and Volusia | 14.5 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 29.8 | 41.3 | 57.0 | 71.0 | 62.1 | 60.6 | 46.3 | 40.9 | 37.2 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 15.1 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 11.4 | 17.8 | 21.5 |
| Santa Rosa County | — | — | — | 20.1 | 25.3 | 27.3 | 22.5 | 20.3 | 20.9 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 19.8 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 13.6 |
This is a count of listings that expired, not a forecast and not a valuation. A failure rate near its long-run normal does not mean any particular home will sell, and a low rate in 2021 did not mean every seller got their price. Regional MLS coverage differs, the three regions here are the ones with records deep enough to publish, and no statewide claim is made from them. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Expirations per 100 new listings entering, by calendar year, from licensed MLS transition records held under our feed agreements. Each region is counted only from its authoritative feed, so a listing is never counted twice across overlapping territories. Excluded months, excluded feeds and start years are listed above in full. Updated with the monthly data release. Free to cite with attribution to Momentum Realty, August 28, 2026.
