Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park
Homes for Sale in Orange Park, FL
True comps, carrying-cost math, and listings before the portals.
Market Heat
Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf is a tight-built pocket of homes from a single mid-2000s construction window, so the product is fairly uniform. That means price here is driven less by wildly different floor plans and more by condition, updates, and lot position. With a median around $255,000 and a median just under 1,700 square feet, you are paying roughly $174 a foot for a home that is now close to two decades old — the ones that have been maintained and updated will separate themselves quickly.
The current posture is cooler than it was. Prices are down about 17% year over year, and the market heat score sits at 36, which reads as a buyer-leaning market rather than a frenzy. That said, the median home is still moving in about 20 days, so well-priced, move-in-ready listings are not sitting. Sellers should price to the current comps, not last year's peak. Buyers have some room to negotiate but should not expect the sharpest homes to linger.
Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park right now
🔴 Off the recent peak. The trailing-12-month median ($255K) is down 17.1% from the prior 12 months ($308K) and up 151% since 2012. With about 8 sales a year, a single closing can swing this number, so read the level and the decade, not one year's move.Momentum Research, record-level realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 11. Confidence: Low (7 and 4 sales in the two windows).
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Updated July 11, 2026 · Live data: realMLS, refreshed twice daily · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
The 60-Second Overview
Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park market snapshot (as of July 11, 2026): the median sale price is about $255K ($174 per sq ft over the trailing 12 months of closed sales), and a median 20 days on market for closed sales. The trailing-12-month median is down 17% from the prior 12 months and up 151% since 2012, computed from record-level realMLS closed sales (7 closings in the current window).
Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park is a community of 226 homes in Orange Park, Clay County, built between 2004 and 2008 (median 2005.0), with a median living area of about 1,690 square feet. 40% of parcels are homesteaded, the owner-occupancy proxy in the Florida DOR assessment roll (2025 roll, public records).
This is a compact, consistent-vintage community in Orange Park where homes share a similar age and size, so the buying decision usually comes down to condition and updates rather than radically different product.
Price History: What Homes Here Have Actually Sold For
Median sale price over the trailing 12 months ending July 11 of each year, from record-level realMLS closed sales. Same methodology as every appreciation figure on this page: the 2026 point ($255K) IS the median in the snapshot above, and the move from 2025 ($308K) IS the -17.1% one-year change.
Windows contain 4 to 10 sales each (7 in the current window); every figure carries its sample size, and thin markets swing on single closings. Source: Data provided by realMLS. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
The real cost & risk here
Before the list price, the Florida math the portals skip. These are Clay County typicals — your exact home, flood zone, and insurance quote will vary, so verify each before you offer.
Check it for your address: look up your flood zone (FEMA) · insurance by county · true-cost calculator · Clay County scorecard.
County typicals from Momentum’s Florida housing data (Zillow & Realtor.com aggregates, Census, FRED), updated monthly; insurance modeled. Flood zone is property-specific — always confirm via FEMA.
33% of homes for sale in ZIP 32065 are already under contract (under contract ÷ under contract + active listings) — a read on how much of the available inventory buyers have already claimed. Source: MLS data (2026-07-10).
A uniform-vintage subdivision resetting off its peak
Everything here was built in a narrow band, with a median build year around 2005, and the 226 homes cluster around 1,690 square feet. Uniformity like this is a double-edged sword: comps are clean and easy to read, but it also means differentiation comes almost entirely from how a home has been kept and what has been updated since the mid-2000s. Roofs, HVAC systems, and kitchens from that era are now at the age where they either add value or need attention, and that gap explains most of the spread in what homes actually fetch.
The homestead share sits near 40%, which tells you a meaningful portion of these homes are not owner-occupied as a primary residence. That mix, combined with a market that has cooled off its recent high, is worth weighing. On the longer arc, values are up about 151% since 2012, so the community has performed over time — but the recent pullback is real and current, and both sides should transact on today's numbers, not the long-term trend line.
Why work with Momentum here
In a community this uniform, the money is made or lost on reading condition against clean comps, and that is exactly where local eyes matter. We will walk a home's roof age, systems, and updates against what recent closings actually cleared, so you are not overpaying for cosmetics or underestimating deferred maintenance. With only a handful of recent closings in the window, every comp counts, and we price and negotiate accordingly.
Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park in 15 seconds.
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Selling here is won on condition and pricing to real comps, not an automated estimate. The right number comes from closed Pebble Creek at Oak Leaf Orange Park sales matched to your home.
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Frequently Asked Questions
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An honest fit check. We will tell you when it is not your community.
Data sources & freshness
| Community market stats | realMLS closed sales, 12-month windows ending July 11, 2026 |
| Housing stock & ownership | Florida DOR 2025 assessment roll (street-list match (5 streets, ZIP 32065)) |
| Under-contract shares | realMLS records, as of 2026-07-10 |
| Historical depth | Closed-sale records back to 2004 (180 transactions analyzed) |
Verify the primary sources yourself: Florida DOR · U.S. Census · FEMA flood maps · Citizens Property Insurance.
Momentum Research figures are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Methodology: how Momentum market scores are computed. Market metrics describe homes for sale and recent sales, not residents.
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