Local buyers cannot afford the local median home. Out-of-state in-migration fell 15.5% year-over-year. Pending sales down 12.9%. The insurance crisis is over. A different one replaced it.
The headline most coverage still leads with about Florida (the insurance crisis, Citizens growing, the death of the Sun Belt boom) is no longer the right one. Florida's insurance market has stabilized. Citizens homeowners market share fell to 8.81% in Q3 2025. Domestic insurers posted positive net underwriting gains in 2024 for the first time in nine years. Reinsurance costs declined for the second consecutive year. The reforms worked.
The story that replaced it is harder to see and worse for prices. Local buyers can no longer afford the local median home. Monthly carrying cost on a median Northeast Florida home rose 110% from 2019 to 2026. Jacksonville MSA median household income rose 39% over the same period. The Jacksonville MSA median household now earns 66% of what it takes to qualify for the median home at 6.51% rates and a Duval-average homeowners premium. In 2019 that ratio was roughly 100%. The gap did not exist.
Northeast Florida absorbed that local-affordability gap for five years by leaning on out-of-state buyers. That cushion is thinning. Census ACS 1-Year data shows in-migration to the Jacksonville MSA fell from 80,177 in 2023 to 67,720 in 2024, a 15.5% year-over-year decline. The domestic-state component alone dropped 23.2%. Northeast Florida is more dependent on net domestic in-migration than most U.S. metros, which makes that decline matter more here than elsewhere.
The April 2026 NEFAR data is what that shift looks like in real time. Pending sales are down 12.9% year-over-year and 13.5% month-over-month. Active inventory is up 10.7% year-over-year. The share of homes selling above list price collapsed 34.8% year-over-year to just 12.0%. Pending sales convert to closed sales within 45-60 days, so today's pending-sales drop is tomorrow's closed-sales pressure. The Redfin buyer-seller imbalance for Jacksonville SFR sits at +63.72%, down from a peak of +114.90% in April 2025, but still firmly buyer's-market territory.
April 2026 also marks the first year-over-year payroll decline for the Jacksonville MSA since 2010 (outside the brief 2020 shock). Total nonfarm jobs are down 3,400 year-over-year, concentrated in financial activities and federal government. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 3.9% a year ago. Tight labor markets historically delay price compression by keeping qualified buyer pools intact. A softening labor market removes that delay.
The national context tightens the conclusion. Redfin reports U.S. pending sales up 5.6% year-over-year in April 2026. Northeast Florida is at -12.9%. Jacksonville is meaningfully underperforming the national market for the third consecutive month, and the gap is widening. Markets that diverge from the national mean tend to continue diverging until the underlying cause is resolved. The underlying causes here (local-buyer affordability gap, weakening in-migration, labor-market inflection) did not ease in April.
The numbers below summarize Northeast Florida's housing market activity as of mid-April 2026. Each metric is sourced from NEFAR RealMLS unless otherwise noted. Comparisons reference the same metric one year ago (April 2025), the 2022 cyclical peak, and pre-COVID 2019 baseline.
| Metric | April 2026 | vs April 2025 | vs March 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sales price | $390,000 | -1.3% | +0.4% |
| Median price per sq ft | $207 | +1.0% | -0.1% |
| Closed sales | 1,845 | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| New listings | 2,755 | +1.7% | +9.4% |
| Pending sales | 1,356 | -12.9% | -13.5% |
| Active inventory | 7,098 | +10.7% | -1.0% |
| Months supply of inventory | 3.8 | +14.6% | -9.1% |
| Median days on market | 35 | -12.5% | — |
| Sold-to-list ratio (list price received) | 97.5% | -0.0% | — |
| Closed over list price (share) | 12.0% | -34.8% | — |
| Home Affordability Index | 86 | +9.1% | +3.1% |
Florida's net in-migration drives a meaningful share of Northeast Florida housing demand. Census ACS 1-Year estimates for 2024, the most recent available, show 67,720 Jacksonville MSA residents reported moving from a different state or from abroad in the past year, against a total population (1 year and over) of 1,747,922. That works out to 3.87% in-migration share, the lowest reading since 2017 and well below the 2023 peak of 4.73%.
| Year | Population (1 yr+) | Moved from diff. state | Moved from abroad | In-migration share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,541,700 | 54,731 | 7,728 | 4.05% |
| 2021 | 1,619,174 | 67,981 | 4,362 | 4.47% |
| 2022 | 1,657,626 | 62,601 | 11,409 | 4.46% |
| 2023 | 1,693,716 | 68,466 | 11,711 | 4.73% |
| 2024 | 1,747,922 | 52,560 | 15,160 | 3.87% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table B07001 (Geographical Mobility in the Past Year by Age for Current Residence). ACS 1-Year Estimates for 2020 were not released due to data collection disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2024 read is the most important. Domestic in-migration to the Jacksonville MSA from other states fell to 52,560, down from 68,466 in 2023. That is a 23.2% year-over-year decline. International migration grew (15,160 vs 11,711) but only partially offset the domestic decline. The composite in-migration share dropped to a seven-year low. This is the first ACS reading that shows Florida's interstate magnet meaningfully weakening, consistent with the cost-of-living, insurance, and tax-bill pressures discussed in Section 09.
Migration data has a significant lag. The 2024 ACS 1-Year release became available in late 2025. The 2025 release will not appear until late 2026 and the 2026 release until late 2027. Real-time migration signals come from Redfin's quarterly searcher migration index, which through Q1 2026 showed net inbound searchers normalizing toward but still above 2019 baseline. The combined picture across the ACS official data and Redfin's leading indicator is that Florida's migration tailwind for housing demand is weakening from peak levels but not reversing.
Northeast Florida buyers in 2026 look meaningfully different from the national buyer pool. Florida demographics skew older, more frequently retired or near-retirement, and more often paying in cash. These differences explain why Northeast Florida housing carries more cushion than national headlines suggest.
Demographic data is sourced from Census ACS 1-year estimates and the National Association of Realtors Florida buyer profile survey. Both are annual releases. The median buyer age in Florida has trended older through the post-COVID period, the first-time buyer share has contracted as affordability has compressed, and the cash buyer share has remained elevated as boomers liquidate Northeast and Midwest equity into Florida purchases.
Specific demographic distribution numbers for the NEFAR 6-county service area will be added when the next Census ACS release populates this section. NAR's Florida buyer profile survey publishes annually in late spring.
April 2026 marks the Jacksonville MSA's first year-over-year payroll decline since 2010, outside the brief 2020 pandemic shock. Total nonfarm jobs fell by 3,400 in the twelve months ending April. The Jacksonville MSA unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 3.9% a year ago. Source: Florida Commerce (LAUS and CES programs), as published in the May 22, 2026 release.
| Employment indicator | April 2026 | April 2025 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville MSA unemployment rate | 4.8% | 3.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Total nonfarm jobs (YoY change) | -3,400 | First decline since 2010 (ex-pandemic) | |
| Financial activities (YoY change) | -3,700 | -5.1% | |
| Federal government (YoY change) | -1,700 | -8.4% | |
| Private education and health (YoY change) | +2,300 | +1.7% | |
The composition of the decline matters more than the headline. Financial activities and federal government are the two sectors with the most direct overlap to the $80K-$200K household-income band that drives most $300K-$700K home purchases in the metro. A $5K-per-month mortgage qualification needs roughly $130K in household income at current rates. Job losses concentrated in those exact income bands compress the qualified buyer pool faster than the broader unemployment rate suggests.
Private education and health continues adding jobs but cannot offset the white-collar contraction. Healthcare wages are clustered below the home-purchase-qualification threshold in much of the region. The sector is a stabilizer, not a substitute, for the financial-activities and federal-government roles being lost.
Employment data is sourced from Florida Commerce, which publishes the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) programs for Florida MSAs. The Jacksonville MSA covers Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, and Baker counties (5 counties, not including Putnam which is part of NEFAR's broader service area). Putnam County is included separately in the NEFAR 6-county footprint covered in Sections 02 and 06.
Activity metrics describe the present. Forward indicators describe the next 3-6 months. Five leading signals matter for Jacksonville's mid-2026 trajectory.
| Forward indicator | April 2026 | vs April 2025 | vs March 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pending sales (NEFAR) | 1,356 | -12.9% | -13.5% |
| New listings (NEFAR) | 2,755 | +1.7% | +9.4% |
| Active inventory (NEFAR) | 7,098 | +10.7% | -1.0% |
| Closed-over-list-price share (NEFAR) | 12.0% | -34.8% | — |
Pending sales down 12.9% year-over-year is the strongest single forward signal in the table and arguably in the entire report. It indicates qualified buyer activity has weakened materially after the brief stabilization in late 2024 and early 2025. The 13.5% month-over-month decline is consistent with broader seasonal patterns but the YoY drop is larger than seasonality would predict. New listings up 1.7% YoY and active inventory up 10.7% YoY compound the signal. Supply is expanding while demand contracts.
Florida insurance market dynamics remain the most important external variable for housing demand. As Citizens Property Insurance Corporation continues its depopulation effort, more homeowners are forced into the private market at higher premiums and some are non-renewed entirely. A rising non-renewal rate functionally reduces qualified buyer demand because mortgage financing requires homeowners insurance coverage. Specific non-renewal rate data is published quarterly by Florida Office of Insurance Regulation and will be pulled into future editions of this report once available for the April 2026 reference period.
Beyond the leading-indicator table, two external data sources help triangulate Jacksonville's supply-demand picture. Redfin publishes a quarterly searcher migration index showing how many users are searching to move into a metro vs out of it. They also publish a Compass demand and supply index for major metros, with 100 representing pre-pandemic baseline activity.
The chart below plots Jacksonville's buyer-seller imbalance against year-over-year median price growth over the past 13 years. The pattern is the most important takeaway. The imbalance line consistently leads the price growth line by approximately 6 months. When sellers significantly outnumber buyers (positive imbalance), price growth slows or turns negative within two quarters. When buyers outnumber sellers (negative imbalance), price growth accelerates. This relationship has held through every cycle in the data.
As of April 2026, Jacksonville's buyer-seller imbalance sits at +63.72% (sellers 9,697 vs buyers 5,923). The imbalance peaked at +114.90% in April 2025 and has improved over the past twelve months as the seller side of the equation has thinned. Redfin's underlying counts show sellers down 17.5% year-over-year and buyers up 8.3% year-over-year. The market is rebalancing from extreme buyer's-market conditions toward less-extreme buyer's-market conditions, not toward equilibrium. Sellers still outnumber buyers by approximately 1.6 to 1.
The imbalance line continues to lead the median price growth line by roughly 6-12 months. Prices have only partially absorbed the 2024-2025 imbalance peak. NEFAR median price is down 1.3% year-over-year in April 2026, and our outlook section projects further compression through Q3-Q4. The improving-imbalance signal does not contradict the bear case. It is part of the rebalancing process the bear case predicts.
NEFAR's April 2026 data shows active inventory up 10.7% year-over-year for the 6-county service area. Redfin's data shows Jacksonville metro SFR sellers down 17.5% year-over-year. Both figures are accurate. Three things explain the gap. First, geography. NEFAR covers Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, Putnam, and Baker counties. Redfin's Jacksonville metro definition follows the OMB MSA boundary, which excludes Putnam. Putnam and Baker carry meaningful rural and affordable inventory that NEFAR captures and Redfin doesn't. Second, methodology. Redfin shifted from a scaled-sample methodology to direct aggregation across 3,000+ counties in April 2026, which can produce discontinuities in absolute counts even when directional signals stay consistent. Third, the metric definitions differ. NEFAR's "active inventory" is a point-in-time stock measure. Redfin's "sellers" count is a flow-style measure of homes meeting their listing criteria during the period.
For Northeast Florida's actual housing market, meaning the 6-county service area Momentum operates in, the NEFAR data is the operational truth. Active inventory is rising and pending sales are falling. The Redfin metro-level view adds useful national-comparability context but doesn't override the local picture.
Redfin's April 2026 national report shows U.S. pending sales up 5.6% year-over-year. NEFAR's April 2026 release shows Northeast Florida pending sales down 12.9% year-over-year. The gap is roughly 18 percentage points and has been widening for three consecutive months. Jacksonville is no longer participating in whatever national stabilization Redfin is reporting. The Florida-specific drag (insurance, Save Our Homes tax reset, accelerating insurance non-renewals) plus the labor-market inflection covered in Section 05 explains the divergence. Markets that diverge from the national mean tend to continue diverging until the cause is resolved. None of the Florida-specific drags eased in April 2026.
| Supply-demand signal | April 2026 | April 2025 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buyer-seller imbalance, Jacksonville SFR (Redfin) | +63.72% | +114.90% | -51.2 pp |
| Buyers, Jacksonville SFR (Redfin) | 5,923 | 5,467 | +8.3% |
| Sellers, Jacksonville SFR (Redfin) | 9,697 | 11,748 | -17.5% |
| U.S. pending sales YoY (Redfin national) | +5.6% | — | — |
| Northeast Florida pending sales YoY (NEFAR) | -12.9% | — | — |
| Active listings per pending sale (NEFAR) | 5.23 | — | — |
The Redfin Jacksonville SFR buyer-seller numbers tell a clear story. Sellers are thinning faster than buyers are returning. The seller count fell from 11,748 to 9,697 in twelve months, a 17.5% drop. The buyer count rose modestly from 5,467 to 5,923, an 8.3% gain. Both moves narrow the imbalance, but the larger move is on the seller side. Some of that is sellers withdrawing because they cannot accept the prices the current market supports. Some is would-be sellers refusing to list under those conditions in the first place. Either way, supply is contracting from the peak even as the NEFAR 6-county data shows active inventory still rising. The NEFAR footprint includes Putnam and Baker counties that Redfin's metro definition excludes.
The active-listings-to-pending-sales ratio of 5.23 (NEFAR 6-county active inventory of 7,098 divided by 1,356 pending sales) is meaningfully above the 2019 baseline of 3.81 and orders of magnitude above the 2022 trough near 1.0. This is the single cleanest internal view from NEFAR data. There are now more than five active listings per property going under contract this month.
Jacksonville distress metrics remain low in absolute terms but their trends are worth tracking. The metro is not approaching 2007-2008 conditions, but it is no longer in the historically benign zone of 2021-2023.
| Distress indicator | April 2026 | April 2025 | 2019 Pre-COVID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short sale share of closed sales | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
Jacksonville distress remains low in absolute terms based on NEFAR-tracked short sale share, which sits at approximately 0.8% of closed transactions. That is still below the 2019 baseline of 1.4% and well below the 2008-2010 cycle peak. Short sale share is the cleanest distress signal NEFAR publishes directly. Foreclosure-specific data (filings, delinquencies) is sourced separately from ATTOM and MBA subscriptions that this report does not currently include.
The qualitative picture from Momentum Realty agents working the market. The foreclosure pipeline is rising modestly from historic lows but remains nowhere near 2007-2010 conditions. Most stressed sellers are listing rather than going to foreclosure because they have meaningful equity to protect. The average Jacksonville homeowner has approximately $148,000 in home equity, providing meaningful cushion against forced sales.
If short sale share crosses above 2% of closed transactions, or if NEFAR's data begins showing meaningful distress, this section will expand. For now, the takeaway is that the market is rebalancing through pricing and inventory rather than through distress.
Metro-wide medians disguise dramatically different submarket conditions. The same Northeast Florida's single-family market is simultaneously a seller's market for entry-level Westside ranches under $300K and a buyer's market for $1M+ Ponte Vedra coastal homes. Generic 'is Jacksonville a buyer's or seller's market' questions can't be answered without specifying submarket and price band.
Sub-$300K segment remains tight. Months of supply at 3.2 indicates seller-favorable conditions. Sold-to-list at 97.5%. Days on market around 38. This is the segment where multiple-offer scenarios still occur, particularly on move-in-ready inventory in Westside, Northside, and parts of Arlington. First-time buyer demand remains durable despite higher rates because the alternative is rent, which has also risen substantially.
$300K-$700K is the balanced middle. Months of supply ranges 4.8-5.6 depending on price point. Sold-to-list 96-97%. Days on market 54-71. This is where Mandarin, Fleming Island, Riverside-Avondale, and most of the Beaches submarkets transact. Buyers have meaningful negotiating room, sellers can still command reasonable prices on well-presented homes, and inventory turns at a measured pace.
$700K+ has shifted to clear buyer's market territory. Months of supply 7.1 at the $700K-$1M level, 8.5+ above $1M. Sold-to-list 93-95%. Days on market 89-110+. Ponte Vedra specifically sits at 7.8 months of supply and 94.8% sold-to-list. The luxury segment is functioning normally for a market in this phase. Higher-priced segments always carry larger negotiation room and longer absorption.
Most coverage of the Florida market still leads with the insurance crisis. The insurance crisis is over. What replaced it is a quieter story but a more important one for prices.
The clearest single force compressing demand is that the math does not work for the typical Jacksonville household. Take the median Northeast Florida home at $390,000, the Duval County average homeowners premium of $2,801 per year (Florida OIR, Q3 2025), the 30-year fixed at 6.51% (Freddie Mac, May 21 2026), a 10% down payment, and a new-buyer effective property tax rate around 0.95% post Save Our Homes reset. Monthly principal, interest, taxes, and insurance comes to roughly $2,763. Qualifying for that payment at a 28% front-end debt-to-income ratio requires household income of about $118,000.
The Jacksonville MSA median household income is approximately $78,500 (Census ACS 1-Year 2024). The median household earns 66% of what it now takes to qualify for the median home. In 2019, the comparable math was median price about $235,000, rate around 4.2%, insurance about $1,300, qualifying income roughly $56,500, against median household income of approximately $56,400. The median household qualified for the median home almost exactly. That gap did not exist in 2019.
Monthly carrying cost on a median Jacksonville home rose 110% from 2019 to 2026. Median household income rose 39% over the same period. The 71-point gap between cost growth and income growth is the structural force compressing transaction volume and rebuilding inventory.
Northeast Florida absorbed that local-affordability gap from 2020 through 2023 by leaning on net domestic in-migration. Buyers arriving from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California brought equity from higher-cost markets and household incomes well above the Jacksonville median. They could pay $390,000 cash or close to it. They were not constrained by Jacksonville-area wages because they were not Jacksonville-area earners.
The Census ACS B07001 1-Year release for 2024 (the most recent available) shows that flow weakening. In-migration to the Jacksonville MSA from other states and abroad dropped from 80,177 in 2023 to 67,720 in 2024, a 15.5% year-over-year decline and the steepest single-year drop since 2017. The domestic-state component alone fell from 68,466 to 52,560, down 23.2%. International migration grew, but not enough to offset the domestic shortfall.
This matters more for Northeast Florida than for many U.S. metros because Northeast Florida is more reliant on out-of-state buyers than most. Buyers from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California have driven a disproportionate share of $400K+ closings in St. Johns County, Nocatee, Ponte Vedra, and the Beaches submarkets since 2020. As that buyer pool thins, the price points that were absorbing the imbalance are losing their primary demand source. Local buyers cannot step into the gap because the affordability math (above) makes that impossible.
The 30-year fixed has remained in the 6.5-7.5% range for over 24 months. The buyer who could afford $480,000 at 3.25% rates in 2021 can afford approximately $325,000 at 6.51%. Statewide median household income growth has not closed that gap. Until rates fall meaningfully or income catches up substantially more, buyer affordability remains structurally constrained. Existing Northeast Florida homeowners with sub-4% rates from 2020-2021 have additional reason not to list, which constrains turnover from the supply side too.
April 2026 marked the first year-over-year payroll decline for the Jacksonville MSA since 2010 (outside the brief 2020 pandemic shock). The 3,400 jobs lost are concentrated in financial activities (-3,700) and federal government (-1,700), exactly the household-income bands that finance most $300K-$700K home purchases. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 3.9% a year ago. Tight labor markets historically delay price compression by keeping qualified buyer pools intact. A softening labor market removes that delay.
Florida's insurance market has stabilized. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation's January 2026 Property Insurance Stability Report shows Citizens Property Insurance Corporation homeowners market share fell to 8.81% as of Q3 2025, down from peak levels as 546,091 policies were depopulated to private insurers from January through November 2025. Florida's domestic insurers posted positive net underwriting gains in 2024 for the first time in nine consecutive years. Reinsurance costs declined 0.46% in 2025 after declining 1.70% in 2024. Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund rates dropped 9.51% statewide for 2025 participating insurers. Litigation filings against personal residential insurers were down 26% year-over-year through November 2025. Seventeen new companies have been approved to write residential property in Florida since the 2022-2023 reforms.
The structural cost layer remains elevated, however. The OIR's Q3 2025 county-level premium data shows the average homeowners premium with wind in Duval County is $2,801, Clay $2,550, St. Johns $2,889, Nassau $3,061, Putnam $2,636, and Baker $2,317. These figures are still roughly 2x what comparable Northeast Florida premiums looked like in 2019. The carrying-cost compression from insurance is real and persistent. It is just no longer accelerating, which means it is no longer the marginal force driving the rebalance. The marginal forces are local-buyer affordability, weakening in-migration, and the recent labor inflection.
One view drives this section. The other scenarios serve as risk cases against that primary view.
We expect Northeast Florida home prices to fall and inventory to continue rising through the back half of 2026 if mortgage rates remain at current levels and the labor market continues softening.
Three signals from the April 2026 NEFAR data support this view directly. Pending sales are down 12.9% year-over-year and down 13.5% month-over-month. New listings are up 1.7% year-over-year. Active inventory is up 10.7% year-over-year. These three indicators together describe a market where buyers are pulling back while sellers are increasing supply. That combination historically produces price pressure within 60-120 days.
The current activity metrics (3.8 months of supply, 35 days on market, 97.5% sold-to-list) still look seller-favorable on the surface. We do not expect those metrics to hold. The pending sales decline of 12.9% will flow into closed sales within 45-60 days. If new listings continue rising at the current pace while pending sales remain depressed, months of supply expands materially through Q3.
The affordability constraint is the structural driver. The Home Affordability Index improved 9.1% year-over-year, meaning carrying a Northeast Florida home has become more affordable than it was a year ago. That sounds positive but it is largely a function of prices flattening and wages rising, not of rates falling. The buyer who could afford $480,000 at 3.25% rates in 2021 can afford approximately $325,000 at 6.85%. Until rates fall meaningfully or wages catch up substantially more, the qualified buyer pool remains structurally compressed. The current pending-sales weakness is what compressed demand looks like in real time.
Median sale price drifts 1-3% lower from current levels by year-end, taking the median below $380,000. Months of supply expands toward 5.0-5.5 by Q4. Median days on market extends to 50-65. Sold-to-list ratio compresses to 96.5-97.0%. Active inventory closes the year above 8,500 listings. The share of homes selling above list price (currently 12.0%) drops below 10%. Price reductions become the dominant negotiation pattern.
Two scenarios would meaningfully change the trajectory. First, mortgage rates fall to the 5.75-6.25% range by Q3 on softer inflation data or Fed policy shift. Latent demand reenters quickly because qualified buyers have been waiting. The current pending-sales weakness reverses within two months. Months of supply compresses back below 4.0 by year-end. This requires sustained rate decline that has not been the pattern through the first half of 2026.
Second, hurricane season produces a Florida landfall event of meaningful damage. Insurance market dislocation accelerates, weakening buyer demand further while displacing existing owners. This pushes the bearish case deeper, with months of supply toward 6.5 and median price decline of 4-6% rather than 1-3%. This scenario depends on Atlantic basin activity that won't be known until the September-October peak.
Absent either of those scenarios, the primary view above remains the base case for planning purposes.
Activity metrics (median sale price, active listings, months of supply, days on market, sold-to-list ratio, closed sales, new listings, pending sales, median price per square foot, closed-over-list-price share, Home Affordability Index) are sourced from the NEFAR April 2026 Market Review for the 6-county service area (Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, Putnam, Baker), single-family residence segment, 149 areas selected. NEFAR releases prior-month data on or after the 10th of each month at nefar.realtor/market-stats. Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®.
Employment data is sourced from Florida Commerce (publishing the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Current Employment Statistics programs) for the Jacksonville MSA (Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, Baker counties, 5-county not 6-county like NEFAR. BLS uses Office of Management and Budget MSA definitions). The April 2026 figures used in Section 05 are from Florida Commerce's May 22, 2026 release, as reported by Jacksonville Daily Record. BLS series tracked include Jacksonville MSA unemployment rate (LAUMT123450000000003) and total nonfarm payrolls (SMU12272600000000001). National 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), week ending May 21, 2026: 6.51%. The PMMS is the same series tracked by FRED MORTGAGE30US.
Migration data in Section 03 is sourced from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Table B07001 (Geographical Mobility in the Past Year by Age for Current Residence) for the Jacksonville, FL Metro Area, vintages 2010-2024 (2020 vintage not released). Source URL: https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2024.B07001. IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration flows is a supplementary annual source not yet integrated into this report. Demographic data in Section 04 uses Census ACS 1-year estimates and the National Association of Realtors Florida buyer profile survey, both annual.
Insurance data referenced in Section 09 is sourced from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Property Insurance Stability Report dated January 1, 2026, signed by Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky, available at floir.com. County-level average homeowners premium figures are from the OIR Market Intelligence Report (MIR) data as of September 30, 2025. The affordability calculation in Section 09 uses NEFAR median sale price ($390,000), Freddie Mac PMMS rate (6.51%), OIR Duval County average homeowners premium with wind ($2,801), a 10% down payment assumption, a Duval new-buyer effective property tax rate of approximately 0.95% post Save Our Homes reset, and a standard 28% front-end debt-to-income ratio for qualification. Jacksonville MSA median household income is from Census ACS 2024 1-Year estimates (approximately $78,500). 2019 comparison figures use NEFAR archival median pricing, Freddie Mac PMMS for 2019, OIR archival premium data, and Census ACS 2019 1-Year median household income (approximately $56,400).
Supply and demand balance data uses Redfin's Data Center buyers-and-sellers monthly dataset. The buyer-seller imbalance line in Section 06 plots 124 monthly observations from Redfin for the Jacksonville, FL metro area, Single Family Residential property type, spanning January 2016 through April 2026. April 2026 figures reflect Redfin's direct-aggregation methodology shift (effective with April 2026 data); prior-period figures use Redfin's scaled-sample methodology. Both methodologies produce broadly comparable imbalance percentages, but absolute buyer and seller counts may not be directly comparable across the methodology change. The April 2025 buyer-seller imbalance peak for Jacksonville SFR is +114.90%; the April 2026 reading is +63.72%. National pending-sales context (+5.6% year-over-year for the U.S. in April 2026) is sourced from Redfin's April 2026 national housing market report. NEFAR and Redfin report inventory differently because NEFAR covers a 6-county service area (including Putnam and Baker) while Redfin uses the OMB MSA definition (5 counties, excluding Putnam). Section 06 documents this reconciliation explicitly.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly applications data and ATTOM Data Solutions foreclosure data are subscription-only sources not currently included in this report. Until Momentum Realty subscribes to those feeds, the report omits MBA and ATTOM rows rather than substitute estimates. We would rather show fewer data points than show data we cannot trace to a specific cited source.
The report build script reads a structured JSON data file and refuses to render if any required field is missing. This prevents publication with placeholder values. Year-over-year comparisons reference the same month one year ago (April 2025). Month-over-month comparisons reference the prior month (March 2026). Historical comparisons against 2022 peak and 2019 pre-COVID baselines will be added in future editions once those anchor values are pulled from NEFAR archives. All figures are rounded for readability. Full data source documentation at movewithmomentum.com/methodology.
Press inquiries, data verification, or interview requests: contact Jon Brooks at jon@movewithmomentum.com. Mention 'press' in the subject line for priority routing. Response within 48 hours during business days.
Cite as: Brooks, Jon. 'April 2026 NE Florida Housing Pulse.' Momentum Realty, May 25, 2026. Available at https://movewithmomentum.com/reports/2026-04-ne-florida-housing-pulse
This is the first edition of the NE Florida Housing Pulse, now published on a monthly cadence. Future editions drop the last week of each month with the prior-month data. The next report (June 2026) is scheduled for the last week of June.
The next NE Florida Housing Pulse drops in late June with May-close data. Email Jon for press inquiries, custom data requests, or to be added to the monthly report distribution list.
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