Momentum Housing Data · Home Values · Walton County
Every figure below is from recorded MLS closings in ARIEL DUNES (Miramar Beach, FL) — not an algorithm’s estimate. Medians, the 14-year price history, market time, and what the record says about selling here now. Window ending 2026-07-25; refreshes as new closings record.
In the current window, sellers accepted a median 93.8% of original asking; the median sale took 66 days (window ending 2026-07-25).
| Year | Median sold | Median $/sqft | Median DOM | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $627,500 | — | 66 | 8 |
| 2025 | $530,000 | — | 87 | 3 |
| 2024 | $565,000 | — | 65 | 9 |
| 2023 | $662,000 | — | 38 | 5 |
| 2022 | $570,000 | — | 14 | 15 |
| 2021 | $405,000 | — | 23 | 21 |
| 2020 | $360,000 | — | 24 | 8 |
| 2019 | $365,000 | — | 23 | 9 |
| 2018 | $327,750 | — | 17 | 8 |
| 2017 | $302,250 | — | 86 | 18 |
| 2016 | $310,000 | — | 125 | 9 |
| 2014 | $353,625 | — | 160 | 4 |
| 2013 | $265,000 | — | 40 | 10 |
| 2012 | $222,500 | — | 80 | 12 |
Over the recorded series, ARIEL DUNES’s median sold price moved from $222,500 (2012) to $627,500 (12 months ending 2026-07-25) — +182% over that span, with every year’s figure from recorded closings, not a model.
The recorded series starts in 2012 at $222,500. The 2020–22 run-up did what it did everywhere — ARIEL DUNES’s median moved +56% from 2019 to 2022. Against the 2023 peak of $662,000, the current median stands at -5%. Annual sales volume here has ranged from 2 to 21 closings a year (10-yr average 10.4). Small-community medians move in steps, not curves — a handful of unusual sales can swing a year, which is why the sales count sits next to every figure in the table above.
What actually trades here: 100% condominium in the current window. Price-per-square-foot is the cleaner yardstick when comparing your home to the medians — it corrects for the size mix in any given year.
Current asking prices run a median $541,500 against the $627,500 recorded sold median (-14%) — the gap between what sellers hope and what the record shows. Momentum’s market-heat index for ARIEL DUNES reads 42/100 (computed from DOM, sale-to-list, and absorption; 2020–21 peaked in the 70s here).
Cash bought 0% of recorded ARIEL DUNES sales in the window ending 2026-07 (0 of 8) — a fact worth knowing before assuming every buyer needs an appraisal to close. For buyers, the same table reads the other way: the sold medians above are what the market has actually been paying — an asking price meaningfully above the recent closed record, in a community absorbing at the rates shown, is an opening position, not a value.
The pattern in the statewide failure data applies here too: homes priced against the latest closed sales sell; homes priced against hope join the 201,552 that didn’t. The table above is the closed-sale record to price against.
We don’t publish algorithm guesses for specific homes — they can’t see condition, upgrades, or your lot. A Momentum agent will prepare a records-based valuation from the same closed-sale data on this page, adjusted for your home. Free, no obligation.
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More ARIEL DUNES: full community guide & homes for sale · choosing an agent here · should you sell now (statewide data) · what selling costs
Listing data provided by the Emerald Coast Association of REALTORS®. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate. Compiled from recorded MLS closings; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures are medians for the stated windows and change as new sales record; individual homes vary widely. No automated valuation for any specific property appears on this page. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC — brokerage licensed in FL and GA. Disclosures