Momentum Housing Data · Home Values · Collier County
Every figure below is from recorded MLS closings in Lake Arrowhead (Naples, FL) — not an algorithm’s estimate. Medians, the 13-year price history, market time, and what the record says about selling here now. Window ending 2026-07-29; refreshes as new closings record.
In the current window, sellers accepted a median 93.7% of original asking; the median sale took 85 days (window ending 2026-07-29).
| Year | Median sold | Median $/sqft | Median DOM | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $550,000 | $269 | 85 | 6 |
| 2025 | $610,000 | $305 | 35 | 8 |
| 2024 | $525,000 | $305 | 19 | 5 |
| 2023 | $540,000 | $273 | 13 | 12 |
| 2022 | $404,500 | $229 | 2 | 8 |
| 2021 | $274,500 | $139 | 79 | 24 |
| 2020 | $268,500 | $138 | 118 | 8 |
| 2019 | $236,500 | $124 | 136 | 10 |
| 2018 | $250,000 | $135 | 168 | 7 |
| 2017 | $251,000 | $138 | 41 | 6 |
| 2016 | $280,000 | $142 | 79 | 13 |
| 2015 | $266,250 | $144 | 77 | 12 |
| 2014 | $255,250 | $145 | 55 | 12 |
Over the recorded series, Lake Arrowhead’s median sold price moved from $255,250 (2014) to $550,000 (12 months ending 2026-07-29) — +115% over that span, with every year’s figure from recorded closings, not a model.
The recorded series starts in 2014 at $255,250. The 2020–22 run-up did what it did everywhere — Lake Arrowhead’s median moved +71% from 2019 to 2022. Against the 2025 peak of $610,000, the current median stands at -10%. Annual sales volume here has ranged from 0 to 24 closings a year (10-yr average 9.4). Small-community medians move in steps, not curves — a handful of unusual sales can swing a year, which is why the sales count sits next to every figure in the table above.
What actually trades here: 99% condominium, 1% townhouse, with a median of 1,941 sq ft and a median price per square foot of $269 in the current window. Price-per-square-foot is the cleaner yardstick when comparing your home to the medians — it corrects for the size mix in any given year.
Momentum’s market-heat index for Lake Arrowhead reads 30/100 (computed from DOM, sale-to-list, and absorption; 2020–21 peaked in the 70s here).
Cash bought 67% of recorded Lake Arrowhead sales in the window ending 2026-07 (4 of 6) — a fact worth knowing before assuming every buyer needs an appraisal to close. For buyers, the same table reads the other way: the sold medians above are what the market has actually been paying — an asking price meaningfully above the recent closed record, in a community absorbing at the rates shown, is an opening position, not a value.
The pattern in the statewide failure data applies here too: homes priced against the latest closed sales sell; homes priced against hope join the 201,552 that didn’t. The table above is the closed-sale record to price against.
We don’t publish algorithm guesses for specific homes — they can’t see condition, upgrades, or your lot. A Momentum agent will prepare a records-based valuation from the same closed-sale data on this page, adjusted for your home. Free, no obligation.
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More Lake Arrowhead: full community guide & homes for sale · choosing an agent here · should you sell now (statewide data) · what selling costs
Listing information provided by the Florida Gulf Coast Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate. Compiled from recorded MLS closings; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures are medians for the stated windows and change as new sales record; individual homes vary widely. No automated valuation for any specific property appears on this page. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC — brokerage licensed in FL and GA. Disclosures