Momentum Housing Data · Home Values · Hillsborough County
Buying here? See Watermill at Providence Lakes homes for sale and the Watermill at Providence Lakes community guide (Brandon), or all Providence Lakes Unit 1 homes for sale.
WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES (BRANDON, FL): 9 recorded closings in the 12 months ending 2026-08-02, a 9-year price record, and sales split by price band and home size — every number from recorded MLS closings, none from an estimate model.
In the current window, sellers accepted a median 97.5% of original asking; the median sale took 13 days (window ending 2026-08-02).
| Year | Median sold | Median $/sqft | Median DOM | Sold ÷ original ask | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $375,000 | $194 | 13 | 97.5% | 9 |
| 2025 | $435,000 | $201 | 5 | 98.9% | 3 |
| 2024 | $434,000 | $218 | 31 | 99.2% | 4 |
| 2023 | $395,000 | $201 | 39 | 92.1% | 3 |
| 2017 | $223,000 | $116 | 28 | 98.6% | 6 |
| 2016 | $202,000 | $100 | 91 | 96.2% | 5 |
| 2015 | $172,000 | $79 | 75 | 84.4% | 5 |
| 2014 | $183,500 | $94 | 25 | 96.8% | 3 |
| 2012 | $172,000 | $75 | 26 | 100.0% | 3 |
Over the recorded series, WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES’s median sold price moved from $172,000 (2012) to $375,000 (12 months ending 2026-08-02) — +118% over that span, with every year’s figure from recorded closings, not a model.
The recorded series starts in 2012 at $172,000. Against the 2025 peak of $435,000, the current median stands at -14%. Annual sales volume here has ranged from 0 to 9 closings a year (10-yr average 2.9). With roughly 2.9 closings a year, WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES’s medians move in steps, not curves — a handful of unusual sales can swing a year, which is why the sales count sits next to every figure above.
What actually trades here: 100% single-family residence, with a median of 1,966 sq ft and a median price per square foot of $194 in the current window.
Of the 15 recorded WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES closings since 2024, half landed between $375,000 and $425,000 (the middle two quartiles); the lowest recorded sale was $344,900 and the highest $459,900. If your home sits outside the middle band, the reason usually shows up in the size table below before it shows up in condition.
| Sold price band | Share of closings | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| Under $350,000 | 1 (7%) | |
| $350,000 – $383,333 | 5 (33%) | |
| $383,333 – $416,667 | 5 (33%) | |
| $416,667 – $450,000 | 3 (20%) | |
| None and up | 1 (7%) |
The same recorded closings, split into thirds by living area. Find the row your home falls in: the $/sqft figure times your square footage is the recorded-sales bracket for homes like yours here — a starting range from real closings, not a valuation of your specific property. Smaller homes here have been selling at a higher price per square foot than larger ones ($219 vs $201) — the usual pattern, since lot, kitchen and baths do not scale with floor area.
| Size group | Median $/sqft | Median sold | Sold range | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smaller homes 1,773–1,966 sq ft | $219 | $389,000 | $367,000 – $415,000 | 5 |
| Mid-size homes 1,966–1,985 sq ft | $194 | $385,000 | $344,900 – $440,000 | 5 |
| Larger homes 1,985–2,190 sq ft | $201 | $407,900 | $375,000 – $459,900 | 5 |
From the live MLS feed as of 2026-10-01: The homes listed or recently sold were built between 1986 and 1988 (median 1986); 12 of 13 listed or recently sold homes report an HOA, median $39/mo; none of the 3 geocoded listed or recently sold homes sits in a FEMA special flood hazard zone (median elevation 36 ft); the features listings here most often name are Deed Restrictions, Street Lights, Playground and Park. See the current WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES listings →
At WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES’s $375,000 median and Hillsborough County’s adopted 15.73 mills (FY2025-26), a home assessed at that price carries roughly $5,900 a year in property tax before exemptions, or about $5,270 with the full Florida homestead exemption — a buyer’s first-year figure; a long-time owner’s Save Our Homes cap can be far lower, which is one reason resale taxes jump at closing. Municipal and special-district millage varies inside the county; see the Hillsborough County tax page.
Since 2005, 32 WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES listings were withdrawn, canceled, or expired without selling (1 so far in 2026) — overpricing is the recurring cause statewide. Over the recorded years, an average of 37% of WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES listings ended without selling (withdrawn/canceled/expired); in 2026 that rate was 17%. Momentum’s market-heat index for WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES reads 49/100 (computed from DOM, sale-to-list, and absorption; 2020–21 peaked in the 70s here).
Cash bought 0% of recorded WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES sales in the window ending 2026-06 (0 of 9) — a fact worth knowing before assuming every buyer needs an appraisal to close. The table above is the closed-sale record to price a WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES home against; asking prices are an opening position, recorded closings are the value.
We don’t publish algorithm guesses for specific homes — they can’t see condition, upgrades, or your lot. A local agent will prepare a records-based valuation from the same closed-sale data on this page, adjusted for your home. Free, no obligation.
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Communities buyers shopping WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES are also weighing (nearest by map distance), each on its own recorded 12-month closings. A median well above the neighbors is a ceiling to price against; well below is where the value argument lives.
| Community | Median sold | Median $/sqft | Median DOM | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peppermill At Providence Lakes | $355,000 | $218 | 53 | 5 |
| providence lakes unit 1 | $369,900 | $233 | 32 | 5 |
| providence twnhms ph 1 | $219,450 | $147 | 45 | 10 |
| heather lakes unit 24 ph 2 | $280,000 | $237 | 65 | 10 |
| School | Level | FLDOE grade |
|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County Public Schools (verify by address) | Public | — |
| Confirm zoned elementary, middle, and high | By address | — |
| Magnet and choice options may apply | Choice | — |
Assignments and grades as recorded/published; both change — verify current zoning with the district before relying on it. Grades are the state’s official FLDOE ratings, reported as published.
More WATERMILL AT PROVIDENCE LAKES: full community guide & homes for sale · choosing an agent here · should you sell now (statewide data) · what selling costs · cash offer vs. listing
Based on Stellar MLS data distributed by MLS GRID for the period 2006 through 2026. Compiled from recorded MLS closings; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures are medians for the stated windows and change as new sales record; individual homes vary widely. No automated valuation for any specific property appears on this page. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC — brokerage licensed in FL and GA. Disclosures
Content on this page is compiled from public records, MLS data, and automated data sources, and may contain errors or be out of date. It is provided for general information only and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association. Verify all information independently before relying on it.