Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Florida? The Recorded Data, Not a Sales Pitch.
Prices, market time, failed listings, and insurance — the four recorded inputs that actually answer this question, for the 12 months ending August 15, 2026, statewide and by metro.
The quick answer
By the recorded numbers, the 12 months ending August 2026 were the most buyer-leaning stretch Florida has printed in years: median community prices fell in 14 of the 14 largest counties, the median community took 46–72 days to sell depending on county, 201,552 listings failed outright, and — for the first time since 2015 — insurance moved in buyers’ favor, with rates down in 51 of 67 counties per state regulators. None of that answers whether it’s a good time for you — that depends on your rate, your horizon, and the total monthly cost of the specific home. What the data removes is the fear of buying into a frenzy: this market rewards patience and punishes overpaying, which is the opposite of 2021.
| County | 1-yr price change | Median days on market | Closings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee | -7.1% | 70 days | 27,160 |
| Hillsborough | -6.5% | 48 days | 10,547 |
| Collier | -5.5% | 72 days | 9,529 |
| Pasco | -5.3% | 51 days | 6,693 |
| Pinellas | -5.1% | 57 days | 10,957 |
| Orange | -4.9% | 56 days | 12,911 |
| St. Lucie | -4.4% | 70 days | 7,687 |
| Broward | -3.4% | 61 days | 10,820 |
| Duval | -3.0% | 49 days | 13,001 |
| Miami-Dade | -2.9% | 57 days | 16,814 |
| Brevard | -2.8% | 46 days | 11,296 |
| St. Johns | -2.7% | 60 days | 8,008 |
| Palm Beach | -2.2% | 57 days | 15,791 |
| Lake | -1.3% | 64 days | 6,800 |
Sorted by price change, deepest decline first. A negative number plus long market time = negotiating room. Community-level figures vary — every community page publishes its own.
By metro, in one line each
Tampa (Hillsborough, −6.5%): the deepest large-metro decline — the strongest buyer leverage among the big markets. Southwest Florida (Lee −7.1%, Collier −5.5%): the state’s deepest declines overall, with the longest market times (70–72 days). Orlando (Orange, −4.9%) and St. Petersburg (Pinellas, −5.1%): firmly soft. Jacksonville (Duval, −3.0%) and Northeast Florida (St. Johns, −2.7%): milder declines, steady volume. South Florida (Miami-Dade −2.9%, Broward −3.4%, Palm Beach −2.2%): softest declines of the majors — the most resilient pricing in the state in this window.
The two costs that changed in 2026
Insurance finally fell. Rates decreased in 51 of 67 counties in 2026 per the Florida OIR, Citizens recommended its first average cut since 2015, and 17 new insurers have entered the state — full county-by-county costs on our insurance table. Carrying costs still differ street to street. In master-planned communities, CDD assessments add roughly $1,300–$3,500+ a year depending on village — verified figures on our CDD fee tables — and HOA dues stack on top. A “good time to buy” is ultimately a monthly-number question; run it with real figures, not listing-agent estimates.
It won’t call a bottom, promise appreciation, or tell you renting is wrong. Recorded declines can continue, flatten, or reverse, and nothing here predicts which. What the record does say: buyers in this window had leverage that hasn’t existed in years, and sellers who priced against real closings still sold in volume. If you’re weighing a specific home, the honest inputs are its community’s closed comps, its total monthly cost, and your own timeline — we’ll run those with you from the records, not a script.
Methodology: county market figures aggregate per-community MLS statistics for the 12 months ending August 15, 2026 (median community 1-year price change, median community days-on-market, closings as recorded) across the MLS feeds Momentum Realty licenses. "Failed listings" are MLS records that ended Canceled, Expired, or Withdrawn without a recorded closing, deduplicated. Compiled from MLS records; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This page reports recorded history only — it makes no predictions — and is general information, not advice about any specific property. Updated monthly; next refresh September 2026. Insurance facts: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation as reported July 2026; Citizens Property Insurance rate recommendation December 10, 2025.