Florida Buyer Opportunity Index™: Methodology

What it measures

The statewide Index is the inventory-weighted average of every county's 0–100 buyer-value score. Each county's score combines five components, each capturing a distinct dimension of buyer opportunity:

1. Cheapness / valuation — how a county's typical home value compares to its own affordability norms and to the rest of Florida; under-valued markets score higher.
2. Price-cut activity — the share of active listings that have reduced their asking price; more cuts signal softening seller pricing power.
3. Inventory growth — year-over-year change in active listings; rising supply gives buyers more choice and leverage.
4. Affordability — the typical home value measured against local median household income and the prevailing mortgage rate.
5. Cap rate (rental yield) — estimated gross rental yield, a check on whether prices are supported by income the property can produce.

Data sources

The Index is built entirely from public and commercially available housing data, refreshed on a fixed cadence:

• Zillow — ZHVI (typical home value), active inventory, and price-cut share.
• Realtor.com — median days on market, active and new listing counts, and median list price.
• Freddie Mac PMMS — the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate used in the affordability component.
• U.S. Census — median household income, used to anchor affordability to local earnings.

All four feeds are ingested and the Index is rebuilt daily through Momentum's automated data pipeline.

How to read it

The Index runs on a simple 0–100 scale. Use these bands to interpret any score, statewide or county-level:

• 0–40 Sellers favored
• 40–55 Balanced
• 55–70 Buyers gaining
• 70–100 Strong buyer's market

The score is relative: it ranks Florida counties against one another and against long-run affordability norms. It is not a price prediction and does not forecast what any individual home will sell for.

Related measures

Three derived metrics are published alongside the Index. They are defined here so they can be cited directly:

Market Status

A plain-language label derived from statewide Negotiation Power: ≥62 reads "Buyers Gaining," 48–61 reads "Balanced," and below 48 reads "Sellers Favored."

Negotiation Power (0–100)

A composite of three buyer-leverage inputs: price-cut share (40%), year-over-year inventory change (35%), and median days on market (25%). A higher value means more leverage for buyers.

Forecast

A directional read — Warming, Flat, or Cooling — built from statewide 1-year home-value growth and a price-direction sub-score.

Biggest Movers

"Biggest Movers" reports the month-over-month change in buyer leverage by county, computed from each county's real price-cut and inventory history. It highlights where the market is opening up for buyers fastest and where it is tightening.

Limitations

Months-of-supply is approximated via days-on-market because closed-sales counts are not present in the underlying feeds, so the supply read is an estimate rather than a closed-transaction measure. County scores can be volatile in low-inventory rural counties, where a handful of listings can swing a component sharply month to month. The Index is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; buyers and investors should consult a licensed professional before making decisions.

How we calculate this →