The fear channels show you the scariest chart; the cheerleaders show you none. The recorded data says two things at once: several metros really are double digits below their 2022 peaks — and none of today’s stress gauges read like a crash. Here is all of it, dated, with the method stated.
| County | Current smoothed median | vs post-2021 peak | Peak month | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | $355,000 | -13.4% | 2022-05 | -1.1% |
| Hillsborough County | $415,000 | -12.4% | 2023-04 | +5.1% |
| Miami-Dade County | $570,000 | -0.9% | 2025-06 | +3.5% |
| Orange County | $437,731 | -21.8% | 2023-05 | +0.6% |
| Pinellas County | $403,000 | -24.8% | 2021-05 | +4.2% |
| Pasco County | $340,000 | -22.6% | 2023-03 | -1.7% |
| Duval County | $319,900 | -1.0% | 2022-06 | +3.2% |
| Brevard County | $364,000 | 0.0% | 2026-07 | +2.9% |
| Palm Beach County | $533,250 | -0.3% | 2026-06 | +12.3% |
| Osceola County | $382,450 | -17.8% | 2023-03 | -1.9% |
| Collier County | $622,500 | -9.1% | 2025-02 | +2.9% |
| Broward County | $475,000 | 0.0% | 2026-08 | +8.0% |
| Lake County | $365,000 | -29.2% | 2023-04 | -2.7% |
3-month rolling medians of monthly MLS sold prices; counties shown at 8,000+ trailing-year sales because thin-county medians whipsaw on sales mix. Sold medians are mix-sensitive everywhere — read the direction and the spread, not the decimals.
Notice what the table actually says: the counties nearest their peaks (Miami-Dade, Duval, Brevard, Palm Beach) and the ones furthest below (Pinellas, Pasco, Orange) are in the same state, same year. “Florida” is not one market, and most of the scary charts are one metro’s 2022 spike doing the work.
A crash is not “prices below an anomalous peak” — it is broad forced selling. The gauges that would show it: distress-marketed listings are about 1.0% of tracked active inventory (a crash-era market runs multiples of that); the median county is +2.4% year over year with 41 of 60 tracked counties flat or positive; 47% of tracked listings have cut price — elevated, public price discovery, with a median cut around 5-6%, not capitulation; and about 20 of every 100 new listings fail to sell — a real number sellers should respect, and one consistent with a slow, negotiable market rather than a collapsing one.
We do not forecast prices — anyone who says they can is selling something. What we can do is keep the four gauges current: the county price table above, the price-cut tracker, the listing-failure data, and each county’s live median-price index and market scorecards. If the picture turns, these pages will show it — dated — before the thumbnails do.
Buying: a repricing market with elevated cut shares is leverage — negotiate off the data, county by county, and stress-test the monthly with taxes and insurance, not just the sticker. Selling: the failure data is the warning — price against recent closed sales, not against your neighbor’s 2022 memory; the first weeks decide whether you join the sold column or the failed one. Waiting for a 2008 rerun: that is a bet on the gauges above turning together — watch them rather than assuming.
No forecast, no fear-bait headline, no cherry-picked metro standing in for the whole state. Recorded prices against their real peaks, the current stress gauges beside them, and every method stated. When the data changes, the page changes.
Price table: 3-month rolling medians of county monthly MLS sold medians (deep sold history, all licensed feeds), peaks measured since 2021; counties shown at 8,000+ trailing-year recorded sales. YoY distribution across all tracked counties with 24+ months of data. Distress share: distress-marketed listings as a share of active inventory, inventory-weighted across tracked counties, latest ingest. Failure and cut figures link their own methodology pages. General information, not advice; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
