“Florida Housing Market Crash” — What the Recorded Data Actually Shows
Search is full of crash predictions in both directions. This page takes no side — it publishes the recorded MLS result for the 12 months ending August 15, 2026, county by county, and lets you read it yourself. Updated monthly.
The quick answer
The recorded 12 months ending August 2026 show orderly single-digit repricing at high volume: prices down in 14 of the 14 largest counties (−1.3% to −7.1%), 168,014 closings across those counties, and market times of 46–72 days. The stress in the record is concentrated on one side of the transaction: 201,552 sellers couldn’t get their asking price and pulled their listings — 71.6% after cutting price at least once. Whether that becomes something worse is a prediction, and predictions aren’t data. What we can say: we refresh this page monthly, and the current record does not resemble the 2008 record of double-digit annual declines with frozen credit.
| County | 1-yr price change | Median days on market | Closings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee | -7.1% | 70 days | 27,160 |
| Hillsborough | -6.5% | 48 days | 10,547 |
| Collier | -5.5% | 72 days | 9,529 |
| Pasco | -5.3% | 51 days | 6,693 |
| Pinellas | -5.1% | 57 days | 10,957 |
| Orange | -4.9% | 56 days | 12,911 |
| St. Lucie | -4.4% | 70 days | 7,687 |
| Broward | -3.4% | 61 days | 10,820 |
| Duval | -3.0% | 49 days | 13,001 |
| Miami-Dade | -2.9% | 57 days | 16,814 |
| Brevard | -2.8% | 46 days | 11,296 |
| St. Johns | -2.7% | 60 days | 8,008 |
| Palm Beach | -2.2% | 57 days | 15,791 |
| Lake | -1.3% | 64 days | 6,800 |
Sorted deepest decline first. These are medians of community-level medians; the spread within a county is wide. Community-level truth lives on our community pages.
Where the anxiety is earned — and where it isn’t
Earned: Southwest Florida and Tampa Bay carry the deepest recorded declines (Lee −7.1%, Hillsborough −6.5%, Collier −5.5%, Pinellas −5.1%), and condo buildings facing structural-reserve assessments are a real, separate stress we track. Sellers who price against last year’s market are failing in record numbers — that’s the 201,552. Not earned, per the current record: a statewide freeze. Volume held, the milder half of the state (South Florida, Northeast Florida) declined 2–3%, and the cost side improved — insurance rates fell in 51 of 67 counties in 2026, the first relief year since the reforms (county-by-county table).
This page makes no forecast, and you should distrust pages that do — in either direction. Sites publishing “crash coming” and sites publishing “Florida always goes up” are selling something. The recorded data above has a stated window and a monthly refresh date; when the record changes, this page changes. If you’re making a buy or sell decision under it: the buyer’s data view, the seller’s data view, and your community’s own closed-sale record are the three honest inputs.
Methodology: county market figures aggregate per-community MLS statistics for the 12 months ending August 15, 2026 (median community 1-year price change, median community days-on-market, closings as recorded) across the MLS feeds Momentum Realty licenses. "Failed listings" are MLS records that ended Canceled, Expired, or Withdrawn without a recorded closing, deduplicated. Compiled from MLS records; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This page reports recorded history only — it makes no predictions — and is general information, not advice about any specific property. Updated monthly; next refresh September 2026.