Is everyone leaving Florida? What the migration numbers actually show.
Net domestic migration to Florida fell from about 310,000 in 2022 to roughly 22,500 in 2025, a drop of about 93 percent, and the state is now classified as balanced for the first time in years. This is the real reason the market feels different, and it is not the same thing as a crash.
Florida net domestic migration, 2022 to 2025
People added on net through domestic moves. The inflow that drove the boom has nearly flattened. Figures are reported estimates summarizing Census data; the 2025 bar is shown dimmed as the most preliminary.
Sources: Census Bureau population estimates and United Van Lines movers data, as reported by Newsweek and WFTV, 2026. These are reported estimates that combine more than one methodology; treat the direction as the durable point and verify exact figures against Census components-of-change data.
What actually happened
Florida did not empty out. It stopped filling up at a once-in-a-generation pace. During 2020 to 2022 the state absorbed the largest domestic inflow in the country as remote work untethered millions from expensive metros. That inflow is what pushed prices up double digits and made bidding wars normal. By 2025 the net number had fallen roughly 93 percent from its peak, and United Van Lines, which tracks its own moves, reclassified Florida as balanced, with inbound and outbound roughly even for the first time in recent memory.
Why people stopped coming
The same three pressures show up in every Florida housing conversation now. Prices never came back down to pre-pandemic levels, so the affordability gap stayed wide. Carrying costs climbed, with Florida holding the highest average homeowners insurance in the country, reported near $9,500 a year, on top of rising property taxes and condo or HOA assessments. And the remote-work flexibility that made the move easy faded as employers pulled workers back to the office. Reporting also flagged that workers under 44 drove out-migration in metros like Orlando, Naples, and Panama City in 2024, which matters because younger workers are the demand base for starter and move-up homes.
What it means for buyers and sellers
Slower migration removes the demand tailwind that hid every other problem. With fewer net arrivals, inventory builds, homes sit longer, and price growth cools or reverses in the softest segments, especially condos and high-cost coastal markets. For buyers that is leverage. For sellers it is a reason to price to the market that exists, not the one from 2022. It is better read as a return to balance than a crash, and the effect varies sharply by metro and price point.
See the local picture in our Jacksonville county-to-county migration data, and pressure-test your own numbers with the True Cost of Ownership, Rent vs Buy, and flood insurance tools.
Is everyone really leaving Florida?
No. Florida still gains people on net in most years, but the pace of net domestic migration has fallen dramatically, from a 2022 peak near 310,000 to roughly 22,500 in 2025, a decline of about 93 percent from the peak. Florida also slipped to around 8th among states for net domestic migration, and United Van Lines now classifies it as balanced, meaning inbound and outbound moves are roughly even. The story is not a mass exodus, it is the end of the extraordinary inflow that drove the 2020 to 2022 boom.
Why has Florida migration slowed so much?
Three forces line up. Affordability eroded as home prices stayed far above pre-pandemic levels. Carrying costs rose, with Florida holding the highest average homeowners insurance in the country, reported near $9,500 a year, plus rising property taxes and HOA or condo assessments. And the remote-work flexibility that let people move freely faded as employers called workers back to offices, so the pandemic migration surge normalized nationwide.
Does slower migration mean Florida home prices will crash?
Not necessarily, but it removes the demand tailwind that masked everything else. With fewer net arrivals, inventory builds, days on market lengthen, and price growth slows or reverses in the softest segments, especially condos and high-cost coastal markets. It is better understood as a return to balance than a crash, and the effect varies a lot by metro and price point.
Where are the people who leave Florida going?
Mover data points to a mix of lower-cost Southern and Midwestern states, with some return migration to prior home states. Reporting also flagged that workers under 44 drove domestic out-migration in metros like Orlando, Naples, and Panama City in 2024 as affordability declined, which matters because younger workers are the demand base for entry-level and move-up housing.