Momentum Housing Data · Home Values · Clay County

Bear Run Home Values: What Homes Actually Sell For

Bear Run (Orange Park, FL): 15 recorded closings in the 12 months ending 2026-08-30, a 15-year price record, and sales split by price band and home size — every number from recorded MLS closings, none from an estimate model.

In the current window, sellers accepted a median 95.6% of original asking; the median sale took 26 days (window ending 2026-08-30).

The 15-year recorded price history

Over the recorded series, Bear Run’s median sold price moved from $90,000 (2012) to $285,900 (12 months ending 2026-08-30) — +218% over that span, with every year’s figure from recorded closings, not a model.

The last decade in Bear Run, briefly

The recorded series starts in 2012 at $90,000. The 2020–22 run-up did what it did everywhere — Bear Run’s median moved +58% from 2019 to 2022. Against the 2024 peak of $295,000, the current median stands at -3%. Annual sales volume here has ranged from 7 to 31 closings a year (10-yr average 13.4). With roughly 13.4 closings a year, Bear Run’s medians move in steps, not curves — a handful of unusual sales can swing a year, which is why the sales count sits next to every figure above.

Where Bear Run sales actually landed, 2024–2026

Of the 30 recorded Bear Run closings since 2024, half landed between $258,250 and $308,750 (the middle two quartiles); the lowest recorded sale was $175,000 and the highest $346,000. If your home sits outside the middle band, the reason usually shows up in the size table below before it shows up in condition.

What homes of your size have sold for in Bear Run

The same recorded closings, split into thirds by living area. Find the row your home falls in: the $/sqft figure times your square footage is the recorded-sales bracket for homes like yours here — a starting range from real closings, not a valuation of your specific property. Smaller homes here have been selling at a higher price per square foot than larger ones ($189 vs $165) — the usual pattern, since lot, kitchen and baths do not scale with floor area.

The Bear Run housing stock, from the live feed

From the live MLS feed as of 2026-09-03: The homes listed or recently sold were built between 1984 and 1999 (median 1987); 3 of the current listings state there is no HOA; 2 of 15 geocoded listed or recently sold homes sit inside a FEMA special flood hazard zone (A/V), which buyers’ lenders will price into insurance; median elevation 21 ft. See the current Bear Run listings →

At Bear Run’s $285,900 median and Clay County’s adopted 15.05 mills (FY2025-26), a home assessed at that price carries roughly $4,300 a year in property tax before exemptions, or about $3,710 with the full Florida homestead exemption — a buyer’s first-year figure; a long-time owner’s Save Our Homes cap can be far lower, which is one reason resale taxes jump at closing. Municipal and special-district millage varies inside the county; see the Clay County tax page.

Selling in Bear Run right now: what the record says

Current asking prices run a median $315,000 against the $285,900 recorded sold median (+10%) — the gap between what sellers hope and what the record shows. The market is carrying about 2.4 months of supply at the current sales pace. Demand check: 0% of Bear Run’s listings are under contract, against 30% for ZIP 32065 and 28% for Clay County as a whole — the community is currently absorbing slower than its surroundings, which is negotiating information. Momentum’s market-heat index for Bear Run reads 33/100 (computed from DOM, sale-to-list, and absorption; 2020–21 peaked in the 70s here).

With asking prices running +10% over the recorded sold median, a Bear Run listing priced against the closed record above stands out against its competition; one priced against the asking crowd joins the statewide list of homes that never sold.

How Bear Run compares with its neighbors

Communities buyers shopping Bear Run are also weighing (nearest by map distance), each on its own recorded 12-month closings. A median well above the neighbors is a ceiling to price against; well below is where the value argument lives.

Assigned public schools

Assignments and grades as recorded/published; both change — verify current zoning with the district before relying on it. Grades are the state’s official FLDOE ratings, reported as published.

More Bear Run: full community guide & homes for sale · choosing an agent here · should you sell now (statewide data) · what selling costs · cash offer vs. listing

Source: Data provided by realMLS. Compiled from recorded MLS closings; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures are medians for the stated windows and change as new sales record; individual homes vary widely. No automated valuation for any specific property appears on this page. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC — brokerage licensed in FL and GA. Disclosures