Investing in Clay County, FL Real Estate: The Actual Numbers

Considering rental property in Clay County, FL? The typical home ($339,079, Zillow) against typical rent ($1,875/mo, Zillow Observed Rent Index) works out to a 6.6% gross cap rate. Gross is where analysis starts, not ends — below is the investor cost stack that turns it into a real number, and the demand-and-supply data that decides whether the rent holds.

Clay County yield at a glance

The investor cost stack, worked

Start with $22,501 of gross annual rent. Property tax: investors get NO homestead exemption and no 3% cap — at Clay County’s typical 15.05 mills on a $339,079 assessment, roughly $5,104 a year (non-homestead assessments can still rise up to 10% annually). Insurance: Citizens averages about $1,189/yr here, and landlord (DP-3) policies typically price above owner-occupied. That already takes the yield to about 4.78% before vacancy, maintenance, management and any HOA — the line items that separate real operators from spreadsheet optimists.

Will the rent hold? Demand and supply

Rent growth here is running +2.0% (Zillow index). On demand, IRS migration data shows a net 3,611 people per year into the county; on supply, builders pulled 1,522 residential permits in 2025. Rising rents plus positive migration plus a restrained pipeline is the configuration that protects yields; the reverse erodes them. Our valuation model currently reads the county as undervalued by 19.9% versus income-and-rent fundamentals.

Where investors actually buy here

Community-level medians, days on market and price trends for every tracked Clay County community are on the county’s community and lifestyle pages — start with the affordability ranking and the county rent page (full rent-versus-own math).

The Clay County market, in context

Clay County is the value play of Northeast Florida — more home for the money than St. Johns or the Duval beaches, with the well-regarded Clay County District Schools and an easy commute to Jacksonville's Southside and NAS Jacksonville. Growth is concentrated in Oakleaf, Fleming Island, and fast-rising Green Cove Springs along the new First Coast Expressway, which is reshaping where the county builds.

The economy behind the market: {'drivers': 'healthcare, retail and logistics, public sector, and a large Jacksonville commuter base', 'summary': "Clay County's economy leans on healthcare (Ascension St. Vincent's Clay County and nearby Orange Park Medical Center), retail and distribution along the US 17 and First Coast Expressway corridors, and a public sector led by the county school district and government. Just as important is what is across the river: a large share of Clay residents commute to Jacksonville's Southside and to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, so Duval's deep military, healthcare, and finance economy underwrites Clay housing demand.", 'employers': ['Clay County District Schools', 'Clay County government', "Ascension St. Vincent's Clay County", 'Orange Park Medical Center (HCA)', 'Walmart', 'Publix', 'First Coast Expressway corridor retail (Oakleaf)'], 'jobNote': "Many Clay residents commute to Jacksonville's Southside and NAS Jacksonville, so Duval's economy is a major demand driver."}

What could change it: Clay's risks are riverine flooding (Black Creek and the Doctors Lake/St. Johns shoreline can flood in major storms), rising insurance, and the growing pains of fast expressway-corridor development, including county budget pressure as commercial construction cools. Inland and away from the water, risk is comparatively low for Florida.

Near-term outlook: Expect Clay to stay the region's steady value market over the next 12 months. Demand from buyers priced out of St. Johns and Duval keeps a firm floor under prices, while heavy new construction along the First Coast Expressway keeps a lid on resale appreciation — a healthy, buyer-friendly balance.

Run the numbers in Clay County

• Find the best agent in Clay County
• Get a cash offer in Clay County
• Clay County housing scorecard
• What would selling net you
• Buyer closing costs calculator

Common questions

Figures from Zillow research series, Zillow Observed Rent Index, verified county millage, Citizens Property Insurance, IRS SOI migration and Census permits, as of 2026-06-16; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Informational only - not investment, tax or legal advice. Equal Housing Opportunity.