Investing in Monroe County, FL Real Estate: The Actual Numbers

Considering rental property in Monroe County, FL? The typical home ($966,261, Zillow) against typical rent ($3,320/mo, Zillow Observed Rent Index) works out to a 4.1% gross cap rate. Gross is where analysis starts, not ends — below is the investor cost stack that turns it into a real number, and the demand-and-supply data that decides whether the rent holds.

Monroe County yield at a glance

The investor cost stack, worked

Start with $39,842 of gross annual rent. Property tax: investors get NO homestead exemption and no 3% cap — at Monroe County’s typical 8.82 mills on a $966,261 assessment, roughly $8,519 a year (non-homestead assessments can still rise up to 10% annually). Insurance: Citizens averages about $4,380/yr here, and landlord (DP-3) policies typically price above owner-occupied. That already takes the yield to about 2.79% before vacancy, maintenance, management and any HOA — the line items that separate real operators from spreadsheet optimists.

Will the rent hold? Demand and supply

Rent growth here is running +2.7% (Zillow index). On demand, IRS migration data shows a net 713 people per year out of the county; on supply, builders pulled 279 residential permits in 2025. Rising rents plus positive migration plus a restrained pipeline is the configuration that protects yields; the reverse erodes them. Our valuation model currently reads the county as overvalued by 138.1% versus income-and-rent fundamentals.

Where investors actually buy here

Community-level medians, days on market and price trends for every tracked Monroe County community are on the county’s community and lifestyle pages — start with the county rent page (full rent-versus-own math).

The Monroe County market, in context

Monroe County is the Florida Keys — a 125-mile island chain from Key Largo to Key West, the most unique and most regulated real-estate market in the state. Strict growth caps (ROGO) tightly limit new building, making for scarce supply, very high prices, and the steepest insurance in Florida, all in a one-of-a-kind tropical island setting.

The economy behind the market: {'drivers': 'tourism and hospitality, the military, marine industries, and government', 'summary': "Monroe's economy is tourism above all — Key West and the Keys draw millions for diving, fishing, and the island lifestyle — plus the U.S. Navy (Naval Air Station Key West), marine industries (charter fishing, diving, boating), and government. With almost no room to build, the services-and-hospitality economy supports a population squeezed by some of the highest housing costs in the country.", 'employers': ['Naval Air Station Key West (U.S. Navy)', 'Monroe County School District', 'Historic Tours of America', 'Keys Energy Services', 'Lower Keys Medical Center / Mariners Hospital', 'Monroe County government', 'tourism and hospitality operators'], 'jobNote': "Strict state-and-county growth caps (the Rate of Growth Ordinance, 'ROGO') tightly limit new construction across the Keys, making housing supply nearly fixed."}

What could change it: Monroe carries the most extreme risk profile in the state: direct hurricane and storm-surge exposure across a low-lying island chain (Hurricane Irma in 2017 caused major damage), the highest insurance costs in Florida by a wide margin (flood and wind), evacuation-and-resilience concerns, and capped supply under ROGO. Sea-level rise is a genuine long-term factor. Affordability is severe for the year-round workforce.

Near-term outlook: Expect the Keys to stay scarce and pricey over the next 12 months: capped supply and second-home-and-vacation demand keep values resilient, while extreme insurance and affordability define the market. The high end and waterfront stay the most liquid.

Run the numbers in Monroe County

• Find the best agent in Monroe County
• Get a cash offer in Monroe County
• Monroe County housing scorecard
• What would selling net you
• Buyer closing costs calculator

Common questions

Figures from Zillow research series, Zillow Observed Rent Index, verified county millage, Citizens Property Insurance, IRS SOI migration and Census permits, as of 2026-06-16; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Informational only - not investment, tax or legal advice. Equal Housing Opportunity.