41 days on marketSingle Family Residence▼ Price cut: $5,000 (9/19)
$359,900
3-Bedroom Home in CARPENTERS RUN PH 1
1628 Baker Road, Lutz, FL 33559
Single Family Residence in CARPENTERS RUN PH 1, LUTZ · No CDD
CARPENTERS RUN PH 1 · Lutz, FL 33559 · Pasco
Listing data updated September 25, 2026 · refreshed twice daily
3Bedrooms
2Bathrooms
1,472Sq Ft
1987Year Built
$244Per Sq Ft
Waterfront2-car garageNo CDDFEMA Zone X
Momentum Research: independent market analysis, flood data, insurance estimates, buyer leverage, and objective property scoring, alongside the MLS listing. Not just the listing sheet.
11% above
$/sq ft vs community
$244 here vs $219 median sold (12 mo)
Buyer leverage
Balanced market
41 days on market
2.8 months
Supply around this home
Seller <3 · balanced 3-6 · buyer >6
Zone X
Flood risk
Minimal hazard per FEMA; ~64 ft elevation
$2k–$4k/yr
Est. insurance · illustrative
Not a carrier quote; premiums vary widely by property. Get a real quote.
As of September 25, 2026, 1628 Baker Road in Carpenters Run Ph 1, Lutz is listed at $359,900 (1,472 sq ft, about $244 per sq ft). That sits within a few percent of Carpenters Run Ph 1's median closed sale of $322,500 over the last 12 months (16 recorded sales). Per square foot it is above the community's recent $219/sq ft by about 11%. It has been 41 days on market, longer than the community's typical 8 days to contract. Listing facts: built in 1987, waterfront, HOA dues of $50/mo. The parcel maps to FEMA flood zone X, outside the special flood hazard area. Figures are from the MLS record and county data; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
No CDD assessment on record
Built 1987 · 39 yrs
1,472 sq ft of living area
2-car garage
41 days on market
HOA $50/mo (per listing)
Momentum Research · carpenters run ph 04b
Pricing & the carpenters run ph 04b market
How this home is priced against recent nearby sales, and where carpenters run ph 04b has been over 25 years. Momentum Research analysis of Stellar MLS records; closed sales, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates only; see data notes.
Price vs. size in carpenters run ph 04b
Each dot is a closed sale since 2004 (180 total). This home is the gold marker.
Sale price (y) by living area in sq ft (x). Stellar MLS closed sales.
Median $/sq ft by year
Community sold $/sq ft, 2014–2026. This home lists at $244/sq ft.
Median sale price by year
12-month median closed price, 2014–2026.
Market Heat by year (0–100)
Momentum Market Heat, 2015–2026. Now 42 (normal).
Property timeline
This home’s history
1987BuiltPer public record
Aug 8, 2026First trackedObserved at $364,900
Sep 19, 2026Price cut$359,900
NowActiveCurrently for sale
Build year is from public record. Listing milestones reflect movewithmomentum.com’s own observations since we began tracking this listing and are not the MLS listing history; dates and prices are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Financing
Estimated monthly payment
$2,464/mo
Principal & interest $1,906/mo77%
Taxes $315/mo13%
Insurance $193/mo8%
HOA $50/mo2%
$2,464/mo at 20% down, 30-yr @ 6.95% · edit any field to update.
Strongest on: Flood safety (95), Market liquidity (80)
0 limited50100 exceptional
55/100 is solid, mid-pack across the objective indicators below. It reflects only those measures — not the home’s quality, condition, or desirability.
A 0-100 score built from objective property and market data: flood risk, insurance, pricing, supply, affordability, and recent sales. Higher means more measures line up in a buyer’s favor. It reflects only the factors below.
Price vs area21
This home $244/sq ft vs the community 12-month median $219/sq ft.
Affordability31
List price $359,900 vs the community median $322,500. Not a measure of personal affordability.
Flood safety95
FEMA Zone X, ~64 ft elevation. Verify the parcel with FEMA.
Insurance cost60
From FEMA Zone X and a 1987 build. Obtain a property-specific quote.
Market liquidity80
Community median 8 days on market, ~2.8 months of supply (12-month record).
Renovation upside45
From a 1987 build and $244/sq ft vs the community median $219/sq ft. Not a condition assessment.
Pricing power50
Recent sales closed at about 97.9% of original asking (~2.1% below). More room below asking generally favors buyers.
Market timing58
Momentum Market Heat is 42/100 (normal). Cooler readings generally favor buyers; hotter readings favor sellers.
Momentum Scores are objective, rules-based indicators computed from listing facts, public records, and recent nearby sales. They are not appraisals, valuations, investment advice, or judgments about a neighborhood or who should live there. Verify independently.
Momentum Research
The Momentum read
🟡 Balanced conditions around this listing. 2.8 months of supply in the surrounding market and 41 days on market for this home, against a 8-day area median.Days on market:this home 41Area median: 8 daysWhy it matters: above-median time on market, together with the level of supply, is a clear sign of how much leverage sits with buyers.Momentum Research interpretation of the MLS facts in the snapshot above. Based on Stellar MLS data distributed by MLS GRID for the period 2004 through 2026. As of September 20, 2026.
🟡 Asking $244 per square foot, about 11% above the community’s $219 median. carpenters run ph 04b’s 12-month median sold price per square foot is $219. Median sold price per square foot is down 14.0% year over year. Confidence: Medium · 16 closed sales in 12 monthsMLS facts: Stellar MLS closed sales. A per-square-foot gap is context, not an appraisal; condition, lot, and view set the final number here.
68% of homes in carpenters run ph 04b are owner-occupied. An estimated 32% are non-owner-occupied, including 13% held in a company or trust and 14% out-of-state owners.Why it matters: a high owner-occupied share typically means fewer rentals nearby and steadier resale demand.Source: Florida Department of Revenue 2025 assessment roll (public records), 181 homes matched. Community-level context.
Recent carpenters run ph 04b sales closed near 97.9% of original asking.Why it matters: the community’s own record shows how far opening prices typically move, and how often buyers compete without financing.Momentum Research analysis of Stellar MLS records, community-level, 12 months ending September 20, 2026. Aggregates only; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What’s unique here: one of only 4 active listings in carpenters run ph 04b, no CDD assessment.
Updated September 25, 2026 · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
Listing description
About this home
Virtually Staged. Located in the highly desirable Carpenter's Run community, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines modern upgrades with peaceful pond views. Major improvements include a new roof in 2025, new AC in 2024, fresh exterior paint, and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the spacious living room.
French doors open to a covered, screened lanai where you can relax while enjoying the tranquil pond setting. The updated kitchen features brand-new granite countertops, abundant cabinet space, a breakfast nook, and a convenient breakfast bar—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a beautifully renovated en-suite bath with a new dual-sink granite vanity and a large walk-in shower.
The updated guest bath features a new granite vanity and a tub/shower combination. The oversized two-car garage provides additional storage space along with a built-in workbench for hobbies or projects. A charming footbridge behind the home offers convenient access to the community recreation center, making it easy to enjoy the neighborhood amenities.
Ideally located just minutes from I-75, this home provides quick access to Wesley Chapel's premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and healthcare facilities, while offering an easy commute to Tampa and everything the Tampa Bay area has to offer. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated waterfront home in one of the area's most sought-after communities!
Description provided by DENNIS REALTY & INV. CORP. and reproduced from the MLS; not independently verified.
Property facts & sources
Every fact, sourced
Listing data, public records, our calculations, and what to verify — each fact shown once. Estimates and calculations shown are for general information only, are not appraisals or advice, and should be independently verified.
Listing facts MLS
List price$359,900
Bed / bath3 / 2
Living area1,472 sq ft
Year built1987
Property typeSingle Family Residence
Garage2-car
MLS #TB8536455
Listing status41 days on market
Public records & third-party data
FEMA flood zoneZone X
Ground elevation~64 ft
Windstorm exposureLow
CountyPasco
Area listings4 active · 0 under contract
Estimated first-year tax~$3,779/yr
CDD assessmentNone on record
HOA (per listing)$50/mo
Calculated estimates
Price per sq ft$244
Estimated monthly payment$2,464
Insurance (illustrative)$2k–$4k/yr
Comparable-sales median$322,500
Buyer should verify Buyer verify
Exact HOA dues, fees, and restrictionsRoof age and conditionHVAC age and conditionA property-specific insurance quoteSurvey and lot boundariesPermit historyFlood-insurance requirementsSchool zoning (confirm with the district)Property taxes after sale (homestead reset)CDD / community assessmentsSquare footage and room dimensions
Listing courtesy of DENNIS REALTY & INV. CORP. · Listing agent: Scott Robinson · 813-949-7444Provided via the Stellar MLS Internet Data Exchange, as distributed by MLS GRID · Listings courtesy of Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID · Listings courtesy of Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID. · deemed reliable but not guaranteedIDX information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate.
The Messtimate™
The Messtimate
This is a deliberately dumb estimate — living area times a range of recent neighborhood $/sq ft, and nothing else. It is not an appraisal, not market value, and not a valuation of this home. Even a tight range from comparable sales can’t price a specific home — here’s why.
$284,096the mess$360,640
Actual list price: $359,900 — compare it against the range above. The Messtimate is a blind sqft estimate; the list price reflects this specific home.
A 27% spread on the same house — and that gap is exactly what an automated guess can't see:
Condition & updates — a 1987 home may have had its roof, kitchen, or HVAC replaced since, or not; sq ft can't see either.
The lot — this listing is waterfront; water frontage is priced far off a per-sq-ft average of the neighborhood.
Outliers skew it — one flip or distressed sale in the comps drags the whole $/sq ft up or down.
Carrying costs & concessions — this home carries HOA dues of $50/mo; with insurance and any seller-paid buydown, that changes what a buyer actually pays, and a sq ft estimate ignores all of it.
And here's what the live market is doing — which the number above ignores entirely:
This home: 41 days on market vs. a 8-day community median
4 active listings competing
≈2.8 months of supply
17 closed here in the last 12 months
For reference, this home is listed at $359,900 ($244/sq ft) — a number set with analysis a Messtimate can't do.
Want a property-specific review from a licensed agent? A Momentum Realty agent will do a real, free comparative market analysis — walking the home, the lot, the condition, and the live market. That's the difference between a Messtimate and a valuation.
Methodology: 1,472 sq ft × $193–$245/sq ft from recent nearby closed sales (public records). Estimate for general information only; not an appraisal, valuation, or offer. Updated September 25, 2026.
Keep looking
Similar homes for sale near CARPENTERS RUN PH 1
Active listings nearby at a comparable size and price. Listings held by brokerages other than Momentum Realty are marked with the listing broker. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
22536 Laureldale Drive, LUTZ · $585,000 · 5 bd / 3.0 ba · listed September 25, 2026 (courtesy of SANCTUARY REAL ESTATE GROUP, LLC)
806 Sandringham Lane, LUTZ · $850,000 · 4 bd / 4.0 ba · listed September 24, 2026 (courtesy of MIHARA & ASSOCIATES INC.)
17030 Vilesta Drive, LUTZ · $375,000 · 3 bd / 2.5 ba · listed September 24, 2026 (courtesy of EXCELLECORE REAL ESTATE INC)
17331 Ladera Estates Boulevard, LUTZ · $2,699,000 · 5 bd / 6.5 ba · listed September 24, 2026 (courtesy of PALERMO REAL ESTATE PROF. INC.)
16506 Longleat Drive, LUTZ · $729,999 · 4 bd / 3.0 ba · listed September 22, 2026 (courtesy of QUICKSILVER REAL ESTATE GROUP)
24514 Volterra Court, LUTZ · $499,999 · 5 bd / 2.0 ba · listed September 22, 2026 (courtesy of REDFIN CORPORATION)
Transparency
Price & listing history
Listed for $359,900Momentum Realty · on market 41 days
Public records
Building permits
Permit history not yet linkedConfirm permit history with the county building department.
Estimated ownership costs
Estimated costs & disclosures
Estimated ownership costs for general information. Confirm each with the county, your lender, and an insurer. See data & estimate notes.
Property tax (first-year est.)
~$3,779/yr
A rough first-year estimate only, applying a typical Pasco rate to the list price before any exemptions. Florida bills vary substantially after reassessment, homestead and other exemptions, and local taxing districts — this is not your expected bill. Confirm with the county property appraiser.
CDD assessment
None
No CDD assessment on record for this community.
Insurance (illustrative range)
$2k–$4k/yr
An illustrative modeled range, not based on carrier underwriting and not a quote. Florida premiums vary significantly by roof age, wind-mitigation features, claims history, and carrier — a real quote can land well outside this range. Flood insurance not federally mandated (Zone X). Get a quote from a licensed insurer before relying on any figure.
HOA
$50/mo
Covers the master association & common areas. Confirm exact dues and what they include.
Environmental data
Flood zone & elevation
Sourced environmental data for the parcel. Confirm with FEMA and your insurer.
FEMA flood zone
Zone X
From the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer. In this zone lender-required flood insurance is generally not mandated; confirm for the parcel.
Ground elevation
~64 ft
Approximate parcel elevation from USGS; confirm exact elevation with a survey.
Windstorm / insurance
Obtain a quote
This is a coastal Florida county. Premiums and coverage vary by home; obtain a quote from a licensed insurer.
Connectivity
Internet & broadband
Fiber
Check availability
AT&T Fiber covers much of NE Florida; confirm availability at the address.
Cable
Likely
Xfinity/Spectrum cable broadband is widely available.
5G Home
Backup
T-Mobile / Verizon fixed-wireless as a backup option.
Seen enough photos?
Want to see 1628 BAKER ROAD?
Tell us when works for you and a local agent will reach out to arrange a showing and answer your questions about this home.
Listed by DENNIS REALTY & INV. CORP. · MLS # TB8536455
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Market data · public records
Recent sales activity in CARPENTERS RUN PH 1
Recent comparable closed sales near this home, from public records. Summary figures are for general reference only and are not a valuation of this property. See the CARPENTERS RUN PH 1 neighborhood guide for more.
Comparable sales found
0
Recent nearby closings in the data set.
Community median sale price
$322,500
Canonical 12-month median closed price. Reference only.
Community median $/sq ft
$219
Canonical 12-month median $/sq ft. Reference only.
Go deeper on CARPENTERS RUN PH 1
See schools, amenities, builders, HOA/CDD detail, and every active & sold home in the community — the single biggest advantage of buying here over a portal.
Recent local developments near this home, compiled from news and public sources. Provided for general information; verify details with the original source.
Jul 2026 · Development
Pomelo Square mixed-use community advances in Wesley Chapel
Ryan Cos. and PulteGroup are advancing Pomelo Square, a mixed use development at the northeast corner of Old Pasco Road and Overpass Road in Wesley Chapel. Plans call for 415 residential units made up of 325 apartments and 90 townhomes, about 42,000 square feet of retail, and a hotel pad. Completion is targeted for the first quarter of 2028.
Why it matters: Adds a mixed use community of apartments and townhomes with retail space and a hotel pad, expanding housing and commercial supply in a growing Pasco County corridor. The project is about 8 miles northeast of Carpenters Run, elsewhere in Pasco County.
New mixed-use development planned on State Road 52 in central Pasco
A mixed-use development planned on State Road 52 in central Pasco County, next to Pilot Country Airport, would add 108 single-family homes, about 175,000 square feet of commercial and retail space, and a 120-room hotel, with completion expected around 2030.
Why it matters: A new mixed-use community adds housing, retail, and lodging along the State Road 52 corridor in central Pasco, the kind of growth that can shape demand and pricing for nearby communities. The site is about 7 miles northwest of Carpenters Run.
Moffitt Cancer Center opens flagship outpatient center at its new Speros FL campus in Pasco
Moffitt Cancer Center held the grand opening of its flagship outpatient cancer center in January 2026 at Speros FL, its large new campus on State Road 52 in Pasco County. The campus is planned as a long-term life sciences and medical hub expected to bring substantial employment to the area.
Why it matters: A large new medical and life sciences campus is a long-term employment anchor for central Pasco, a structural demand driver for housing in the surrounding area. The site is about 10 miles northwest of Carpenters Run.
Flagship breaks ground on 46,000-square-foot Wiregrass Ranch Medical Pavilion in Wesley Chapel
Flagship Healthcare Properties broke ground in January 2026 on a 46,000-square-foot medical pavilion at Wiregrass Ranch in Wesley Chapel, adding outpatient medical space to the growing State Road 56 corridor.
Why it matters: Added outpatient medical space along the State Road 56 corridor deepens healthcare access and professional employment in Wesley Chapel, an amenity factor that can support nearby housing demand. The site is about 4 miles east of Carpenters Run.
Schools currently assigned to this address in Pasco County, provided as neutral factual data. Assignments can change — confirm current zoning with the school district. This is not a statement about the home's suitability for any person or family.
Pasco County Public Schools (verify by address)Public · Pasco County School District
Confirm zoned elementary, middle, and highBy address · Pasco County School District
Magnet and choice options may applyChoice · Pasco County School District
How it stacks up
Comparable recent sales
Recent closed sales nearby, with photos, so you can compare. Sold prices are public record, deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
No closely comparable recent sales were found in this data set.
If you rent it out
Investment snapshot
Objective rental and cash-flow estimates for a buyer weighing this as an investment. Rough figures for general information only — not a guarantee of rent, an appraisal, or investment advice. Verify independently.
Estimated rent$1,650 – $2,399/moa rough gross-rent-yield range on list price (comp-based estimate coming).
Estimated cap rate4.2%Net operating income ÷ list price; excludes financing.
Est. monthly cash flow−$859 – −$185At 25% down, 30-yr; after a 10% vacancy/maintenance/management reserve.
Before you decide
Buyer research checklist
Items worth confirming for 1628 Baker Road, chosen from what the record shows. This is general guidance, not advice about this specific property.
Built in 1987 (39 years): ask for the roof and HVAC replacement dates — insurers commonly ask for roof age on homes this old, and it changes the premium.
HOA dues are listed at $50/mo: request the current budget, reserves, and rules before relying on that figure or on any restriction.
FEMA flood zone X: flood insurance is not usually required, but get a quote anyway — FEMA reports roughly one in four flood claims come from outside high-risk zones.
Get a homeowners insurance quote for this specific address in Pasco County; a wind-mitigation inspection and, on older homes, a four-point inspection can change the premium.
Waterfront: confirm seawall or dock condition and permits, and ask who owns and maintains the shoreline.
Listed living area is 1,472 sq ft: verify it against the property appraiser's record and measure before relying on it.
Order a survey to confirm lot boundaries and easements.
Review permit history with the county.
Property taxes: the estimate on this page (about $3,779/yr) assumes reassessment at the list price; the seller's homestead cap does not transfer, so their current bill is not a guide.
Confirm school zoning directly with the district.
Nearby & commute
Approximate distances
Approximate drive times for general reference only.
Stellar MLS, refreshed twice daily (last: September 25, 2026)
Community market stats
Stellar MLS closed sales, as of September 20, 2026
Flood zone & elevation
FEMA flood maps + USGS elevation (Zone X shown above)
Taxes & monthly cost
Estimated from county rates; not a quote
Insurance figure
Modeled estimate; obtain a real quote before offering
Schools
2025-26 district assignments; verify with the district
Momentum Research lines are our own analysis of Stellar MLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates are informational, not appraisals or advice. Methodology: how Momentum scores are computed.
Answered before you ask
Frequently asked questions
How big is 1628 Baker Road and when was it built?
Per the listing record, 1628 Baker Road was built in 1987 and has 1,472 sq ft of living area, 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. Living area and lot size come from the MLS record and should be verified against the county property appraiser.
What community is 1628 Baker Road in?
1628 Baker Road is in Carpenters Run Ph 1 in Lutz, Pasco County. The community section on this page shows recent closed sales, days on market, and active inventory for Carpenters Run Ph 1 from the same MLS data.
Does 1628 Baker Road have an HOA, and how much are the dues?
The listing reports HOA dues of $50 per month. Dues, what they cover, and the community's rules should be confirmed from the association's current documents before relying on them.
Why might property taxes on 1628 Baker Road differ from the current owner's?
The estimate on this page (about $3,779 per year) assumes reassessment at the list price. Florida's Save Our Homes rule caps annual assessment increases for homesteaded owners, and the assessment resets after a sale, so a new owner's bill may differ from the seller's. Any tax figure shown here is an estimate, not the actual bill — confirm with the county property appraiser and tax collector.
Is 1628 Baker Road in a flood zone?
The FEMA flood map places this parcel in Zone X, outside the special flood hazard area, so flood insurance is not usually required by a lender. It is still available and worth quoting; confirm the parcel's status with FEMA and your insurer.
Can I rely on the figures on this page?
No. Estimated taxes, insurance, payments, and any market or comparable-sales summary are opinions and estimates for general information only and should not be relied upon. Verify all information independently before making any decision.
Ready when you are
See 1628 BAKER ROAD in person
Private tours available 7 days a week, in person or by live video walkthrough. Request a tour or send a question and a licensed Momentum Realty agent will follow up.
Opinion & estimate — do not rely on this page. Any figure on this page that is not a verbatim fact from the listing or a public record — including estimated property taxes, insurance, CDD/HOA amounts, mortgage payments, comparable-sales summaries, and market statistics — is an opinion and estimate provided for general informational purposes only. These figures may be inaccurate or out of date, are not appraisals, valuations, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice, and should not be relied upon. Do not make any purchase, offer, financing, or other decision based on this page. Independently verify everything — price, square footage, lot size, year built, taxes, CDD/HOA, flood status, school assignments, permits, and community rules — with the listing broker, the county, your lender, a licensed inspector, an insurer, and your own advisors before acting.
Estimate methodology. Tax estimates apply a typical county millage rate to the list price and will differ from the actual assessed bill. Cost and market figures are derived from available data and simple calculations, not a professional appraisal. We make no representation that any estimate reflects fair market value.
Equal Housing Opportunity. Content on this page is compiled from public records, MLS data, and automated sources and may contain errors or be out of date. It is general information only, not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association. Verify information independently before relying on it. Momentum Realty supports the Fair Housing Act and does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, national origin, sexual orientation, or gender identity. Information about schools, distances, and amenities is provided as neutral factual data to help you research the property and is not a statement about who should or should not live here or the suitability of the home or neighborhood for any person or group. School data may change — confirm current assignments with the school district.
Found an error? If you are the owner, listing agent, or a party to this property and believe any information is inaccurate, email and we will review and correct or remove it promptly.
Automated content. Some summaries, distances, and estimates on this page are generated automatically from public and proprietary data sources and may contain errors or omissions. We strive for accuracy but cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of any information. Verify anything important independently.
No warranty; measurements & photos. No guarantee, warranty, or representation of any kind is made regarding the completeness or accuracy of any information, descriptions, or measurements on this page — including square-footage measurements and property condition — all of which should be independently verified through appropriate means, including in-person inspection and public records. Photographs may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions. Momentum Realty and its agents expressly disclaim any liability in connection with the information provided.
MLS / IDX. The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange (IDX) program of the Stellar MLS Internet Data Exchange, as distributed by MLS GRID. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Momentum Realty are marked with the listing broker's name and include the name of the listing agent. Data provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed by the MLS to be accurate. The information being provided is for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Source: Stellar MLS, as distributed by MLS GRID. Listings courtesy of Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID. All rights reserved.
Sold price and details are from public records and the MLS, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Shown for comparison only — not an appraisal or a statement of this home's value.
