Lutz
Housing Market
Median sale price $439,900, down 1.1% year over year, with homes going under contract in about 47 days, 4 homes on the market.
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Housing Market Analyst
Inventory sits at 1.7 months of supply — tight by the 3-to-6-month balanced benchmark, and 45% of listed homes are already under contract. Prices are down 1.1% versus the prior year, but sellers are still collecting 94.8% of asking. Taken together, the data points to a seller-leaning market.
Who has leverage right now
Leverage scores are derived from the Momentum Score (supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend). Right now the data favors sellers.
- Prices — more likely to stabilize than fall sharply. Supply remains below balanced levels even as prices soften; without a meaningful inventory build, further declines tend to be shallow.
- Inventory — building over the tracked window; watch whether that holds through the season.
- Negotiating power — sellers hold the leverage while 45% of inventory sits under contract.
- Mortgage sensitivity — at 5.1× income, this market is highly sensitive to rate moves; rate relief tends to show up in demand here quickly.
Derived from current Lutz data, not a prediction or guarantee. Markets move; talk to an agent before acting on any single reading.
Where Lutz is hot — and where it isn't
Each dot is a community (96 shown, sized by sales volume rank). Click any dot to open its full neighborhood guide.
The read on Lutz
The median sale price across Lutz currently stands at $439,900, down 1.1% from a year ago. Buyers are paying a median of $222 per square foot. The typical home goes under contract in about 47 days. Sellers are capturing 94.8% of their original asking price on average.
There are 4 active listings on the market, with 7 more already under contract. At the current sales pace that works out to 1.7 months of supply — a seller-leaning market by the standard six-month benchmark. 48 homes closed here over the trailing 12 months.
Lutz prices sit above the Hillsborough County median by roughly 10%. Zillow's home value index for Hillsborough County stands at $380,041. About 31% of listings county-wide have taken a price cut — a useful gauge of seller flexibility.
Weighing supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend together, the Momentum Score for Lutz is 71 of 100 — healthy market territory. This page recalculates every day as new MLS data lands, so the numbers above reflect the market as of August 6, 2026.
Lutz since 2012 — and where it’s heading
A median home here sold for $185,108 in 2012 and $507,890 over the last recorded year — 174% appreciation across 14 years of recorded sales. Cash buyers took 25% of recent sales, down from a 32% peak.
Median sale price · 2012–2026 (5,997 recorded sales)
Days on market by year
Cash buyers · share of sales
Home value trend · Hillsborough County (Zillow ZHVI)
For-sale inventory · county (Zillow)
Daily active vs pending · Hillsborough County (MLS)
What’s driving Lutz
Top inbound states: NY, TX, NJ, GA. Movers arriving report ~$77,979 average income. Source: IRS SOI county-to-county migration, 2022-2023
6,518 Citizens policies in force in Hillsborough County — the state-backed insurer of last resort. Budget insurance into any Hillsborough purchase before you fall in love with a house. Source: Citizens Property Insurance, Detail by County, April 2026
4,295 single-family · 4,401 multi-family · 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Future supply pressure starts here. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2025
The calls we’re making from today’s data
The sharpest 1-yr median swing among tracked communities. Thin samples can exaggerate swings — verify with a comp analysis before treating it as trend.
Sellers: price to the last 60 days of comps, not the peak — well-prepared listings are still commanding strong terms. Buyers: get underwritten now so you can move when the right house hits.
Generated from today’s data by Momentum’s analysis engine and reviewed on a rolling basis by our broker team.
How it stacks up across Hillsborough County
| Market | Median | Active | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lutz ← this page | $440K | 4 | 71 | |
| Tampa | $440K | 634 | 62 | Open → |
| Riverview | $367K | 172 | 55 | Open → |
| Wimauma | $360K | 117 | 55 | Open → |
| Lithia | $566K | 77 | 70 | Open → |
| Apollo Beach | $485K | 73 | 51 | Open → |
Neighborhoods on the move
| CRENSHAW LAKESLutz | $1.13M | ▲ 51% |
| SIERRA PINES UNRECLutz | $420K | ▲ 33% |
| Reflections Ph 3Lutz | $565K | ▲ 7% |
| LONG LAKE RANCH VILLAGE 2 PRCL A-1, ALutz | $587K | ▲ 7% |
| Lake Forest Unit 6 BLutz | $250K | ▲ 7% |
| Sonata Ph 2Lutz | $378K | ▼ 20% |
| CARPENTERS RUNLutz | $330K | ▼ 14% |
| PARADISE LAKES CONDOLutz | $125K | ▼ 14% |
| LAKEVIEW AT CALUSA TRACELutz | $205K | ▼ 11% |
| PARKVIEW/LONG LAKE RANCH PH 1ALutz | $475K | ▼ 10% |
| HERITAGE HARBOR PH 1BLutz | $590K | 2 |
| CRENSHAW LAKESLutz | $1.13M | 1 |
| CARPENTERS RUNLutz | $330K | 8 days |
| THE MANORS AT CRYSTAL LAKESLutz | $680K | 11 days |
| VILLAROSALutz | $667K | 12 days |
| TURTLE LAKESLutz | $380K | 12 days |
| HERITAGE HARBOR PH 1BLutz | $590K | 15 days |
Lutz ZIP codes
Most active communities
Put this data to work
The questions people actually ask
Should I buy a house in Lutz right now?
The data says conditions currently favor sellers in Lutz — the Momentum Score reads 71/100 with 1.7 months of supply. Buyers should come fully underwritten; sellers still set the pace here. The right timing always depends on your rate, your equity, and how long you plan to stay — not just the market.
Is Lutz becoming more affordable?
Yes, modestly — the median sale price in Lutz is $439,900, down 1.1% versus the prior year, while sellers still capture 94.8% of asking price. Softening prices plus normal-length marketing times mean affordability is improving at the margin, though financing costs matter more than list prices for most monthly payments.
Where are prices falling fastest in Lutz?
Among tracked communities with enough sales to measure, the sharpest 1-year median declines are Sonata Ph 2 (-20%); CARPENTERS RUN (-14%); PARADISE LAKES CONDO (-14%). Note that community-level medians move on small sale counts — a few high- or low-end closings can swing them — so treat these as leads for a comp analysis, not verdicts.
Which Lutz neighborhoods are most competitive?
Measured by speed of sale, the fastest-moving tracked communities right now are CARPENTERS RUN (8 days); THE MANORS AT CRYSTAL LAKES (11 days); VILLAROSA (12 days) — homes there go under contract well ahead of the market-wide pace of 47 days.
How does Lutz compare to the rest of Hillsborough County?
Lutz's median of $439,900 runs 10% above the county-wide median of $399,950, and homes here take 47 days to go under contract versus 42 county-wide.
Lutz housing market FAQ
What is the median home price in Lutz?
The median sale price in Lutz is currently $439,900, down 1.1% from a year ago, based on MLS sales data updated August 6, 2026.
Is Lutz a buyer's or seller's market right now?
The data currently favors sellers. Lutz scores 71 of 100 on the Momentum Score, with 1.7 months of housing supply. Conditions change; this page updates daily.
How long do homes take to sell in Lutz?
The typical home in Lutz goes under contract in about 47 days, per current MLS data.
How many homes are for sale in Lutz?
There are approximately 4 active listings in Lutz as of August 6, 2026.
Are home prices in Lutz rising or falling?
Median sale prices are down 1.1% year over year based on a rolling comparison of MLS sales.
Momentum agents use this intelligence every day to price listings and write winning offers across Lutz. Talk through what the numbers mean for your move.
Every number on this page is computed directly from licensed Florida MLS feeds, recorded public sales, Zillow Research, and U.S. Census data — nothing is manually adjusted or estimated by hand. Medians use recorded closed sales; supply figures use live listing counts refreshed twice daily; the Momentum Score methodology is summarized .
Analyst oversight: Jon Brooks — Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · CEO, Momentum Research · Housing Market Analyst · methodology reviewed quarterly · Last data refresh: August 6, 2026 at 7:18 PM ET
Statistics on this page are computed automatically from licensed MLS feeds and public data sources (Zillow Research, U.S. Census Bureau) and summarized without manual review. Figures are estimates based on recent recorded activity, are deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and should be verified with a licensed agent before making decisions. This page does not constitute an appraisal or an automated valuation of any specific property. Momentum Realty is licensed in Florida and Georgia. Equal Housing Opportunity.