33811 (Lakeland)
Housing Market
Median sale price $342,000, down 5.0% year over year, with homes going under contract in about 61 days.
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Housing Market Analyst
Prices are down 5.0% versus the prior year, but sellers are still collecting 95.0% of asking. Taken together, the data points to a broadly balanced market where preparation decides who wins.
Who has leverage right now
Leverage scores are derived from the Momentum Score (supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend). Right now the data favors neither side decisively.
- Inventory — tightening over the tracked window; watch whether that holds through the season.
- Mortgage sensitivity — at 4.7× income, this market is moderately sensitive to rate moves; rate relief tends to show up in demand here quickly.
Derived from current 33811 data, not a prediction or guarantee. Markets move; talk to an agent before acting on any single reading.
Where 33811 is hot — and where it isn't
Each dot is a community (25 shown, sized by sales volume rank). Click any dot to open its full neighborhood guide.
The read on 33811 (Lakeland)
The median sale price across 33811 currently stands at $342,000, down 5.0% from a year ago. Buyers are paying a median of $188 per square foot. The typical home goes under contract in about 61 days. Sellers are capturing 95.0% of their original asking price on average.
Zillow's home value index for Polk County stands at $298,826. About 26% of listings county-wide have taken a price cut — a useful gauge of seller flexibility.
Weighing supply, demand, speed, pricing power, and trend together, the Momentum Score for 33811 is 51 of 100 — balanced market territory. This page recalculates every day as new MLS data lands, so the numbers above reflect the market as of August 6, 2026.
33811 since 2012 — and where it’s heading
A median home here sold for $120,300 in 2012 and $344,439 over the last recorded year — 186% appreciation across 14 years of recorded sales. Cash buyers took 21% of recent sales, down from a 31% peak.
Median sale price · 2012–2026 (2,596 recorded sales)
Days on market by year
Cash buyers · share of sales
Home value trend · Polk County (Zillow ZHVI)
For-sale inventory · county (Zillow)
Daily active vs pending · Polk County (MLS)
What’s driving 33811
Top inbound states: NY, NJ, PA, TX. Movers arriving report ~$56,322 average income. Source: IRS SOI county-to-county migration, 2022-2023
5,380 Citizens policies in force in Polk County — the state-backed insurer of last resort. Budget insurance into any Polk purchase before you fall in love with a house. Source: Citizens Property Insurance, Detail by County, April 2026
6,725 single-family · 1,511 multi-family · 10.8 per 1,000 residents. Future supply pressure starts here. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2025
The calls we’re making from today’s data
The sharpest 1-yr median swing among tracked communities. Thin samples can exaggerate swings — verify with a comp analysis before treating it as trend.
Both sides have a case: buyers should negotiate on days-on-market, sellers should lean on the under-contract rate. Preparation, not the market, decides who wins a balanced tape.
Generated from today’s data by Momentum’s analysis engine and reviewed on a rolling basis by our broker team.
Nearby ZIP codes in Polk
| Market | Median | Active | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33811 ← this page | $342K | — | 51 | |
| 33813 | $384K | 41 | 47 | Open → |
| 33823 | $369K | 19 | 73 | Open → |
| 33837 | $355K | 18 | 55 | Open → |
| 33884 | $308K | 16 | 47 | Open → |
| 33897 | $395K | 12 | 60 | Open → |
Neighborhoods on the move
| LEISURE ACRES UNIT 01Lecanto | $425K | ▲ 30% |
| REFLECTIONS WESTLakeland | $304K | ▲ 4% |
| FORESTWOODPort Richey | $188K | ▲ -0% |
| RIVERSTONELakeland | $339K | ▲ -0% |
| TOWNE PARK ESTATESLakeland | $315K | ▲ -2% |
| COLONNADES PH 01Lakeland | $202K | ▼ 16% |
| DEER BROOKELakeland | $397K | ▼ 14% |
| HAWTHORNE RANCHLakeland | $427K | ▼ 13% |
| CARILLON LAKESLakeland | $310K | ▼ 10% |
| CHELSEA OAKS PH IParrish | $245K | ▼ 9% |
| LAKESIDE PRESERVELakeland | $383K | 18 days |
| TOWNE PARK ESTATESLakeland | $315K | 27 days |
| REFLECTIONS WESTLakeland | $304K | 38 days |
| RIVERSTONELakeland | $339K | 46 days |
| FORESTWOODPort Richey | $188K | 53 days |
Cities in this ZIP
Most active communities
Put this data to work
The questions people actually ask
Should I buy a house in 33811 right now?
The data says conditions currently favor neither side decisively in 33811 — the Momentum Score reads 51/100. For buyers that means preparation over hesitation: well-priced homes still move fast, but there is more room to negotiate than a year ago. The right timing always depends on your rate, your equity, and how long you plan to stay — not just the market.
Is 33811 becoming more affordable?
Yes, modestly — the median sale price in 33811 is $342,000, down 5.0% versus the prior year, while sellers still capture 95.0% of asking price. Softening prices plus normal-length marketing times mean affordability is improving at the margin, though financing costs matter more than list prices for most monthly payments.
Where are prices falling fastest in 33811?
Among tracked communities with enough sales to measure, the sharpest 1-year median declines are COLONNADES PH 01 (-16%); DEER BROOKE (-14%); HAWTHORNE RANCH (-13%). Note that community-level medians move on small sale counts — a few high- or low-end closings can swing them — so treat these as leads for a comp analysis, not verdicts.
Which 33811 neighborhoods are most competitive?
Measured by speed of sale, the fastest-moving tracked communities right now are LAKESIDE PRESERVE (18 days); TOWNE PARK ESTATES (27 days); REFLECTIONS WEST (38 days) — homes there go under contract well ahead of the market-wide pace of 61 days.
33811 (Lakeland) housing market FAQ
What is the median home price in 33811?
The median sale price in 33811 is currently $342,000, down 5.0% from a year ago, based on MLS sales data updated August 6, 2026.
Is 33811 a buyer's or seller's market right now?
The data currently is roughly balanced. 33811 scores 51 of 100 on the Momentum Score. Conditions change; this page updates daily.
How long do homes take to sell in 33811?
The typical home in 33811 goes under contract in about 61 days, per current MLS data.
Are home prices in 33811 rising or falling?
Median sale prices are down 5.0% year over year based on a rolling comparison of MLS sales.
Momentum agents use this intelligence every day to price listings and write winning offers across 33811 (Lakeland). Talk through what the numbers mean for your move.
Every number on this page is computed directly from licensed Florida MLS feeds, recorded public sales, Zillow Research, and U.S. Census data — nothing is manually adjusted or estimated by hand. Medians use recorded closed sales; supply figures use live listing counts refreshed twice daily; the Momentum Score methodology is summarized .
Analyst oversight: Jon Brooks — Co-Founder, Momentum Realty · CEO, Momentum Research · Housing Market Analyst · methodology reviewed quarterly · Last data refresh: August 6, 2026 at 7:18 PM ET
Statistics on this page are computed automatically from licensed MLS feeds and public data sources (Zillow Research, U.S. Census Bureau) and summarized without manual review. Figures are estimates based on recent recorded activity, are deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and should be verified with a licensed agent before making decisions. This page does not constitute an appraisal or an automated valuation of any specific property. Momentum Realty is licensed in Florida and Georgia. Equal Housing Opportunity.