Market Brief

The two Florida metros that Case-Shiller tracks moved in opposite directions in June, and the gap between the strongest and weakest markets in the country is now nearly nine points.

Case-Shiller has Tampa down 1.2% and Miami up 2.3% over the year to June. Florida now sits on both sides of a widening regional divide.

The daily read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs: tax policy, insurance, mortgage rates and construction, and what they mean for a buyer or seller in Northeast Florida this week.

One state, two directions

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the June 2026 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller results on Tuesday, August 25. Two of the twenty metropolitan areas in the index are in Florida, and in June they pointed opposite ways.

• Tampa: down 1.19% over the year, one of seven metros that fell over the year.
• Miami: up 2.27% over the year, slightly ahead of the 20-City Composite.

That is a gap of about three and a half percentage points between two markets in the same state, under the same insurance regime, the same condominium inspection statute and the same property tax debate. Whatever is pressing on Florida housing is not pressing evenly, and a statewide average conceals the fact.

It is worth being precise about what this does and does not tell us about Northeast Florida. Case-Shiller does not track Jacksonville. Neither Tampa nor Miami is a proxy for it. The useful reading is directional: the index establishes that Florida metros are diverging from each other, which is an argument against reading any statewide Florida figure as a description of this market.

The national number is positive and still losing to inflation

The U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.5% over the year to June, up from 1.2% in May. The 10-City Composite rose 2.9% and the 20-City Composite 2.1%, both accelerating from the month before.

The acceleration is real but small, and it sits underneath a larger fact that S&P put in its own summary: for the thirteenth consecutive month, U.S. home values fell in real terms. June inflation at 3.5% ran roughly two percentage points ahead of the 1.5% nominal price gain.

Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices framed the June figures as lower inflation slowing the pace of that erosion rather than ending it. A homeowner reading a 1.5% gain is looking at a number that is positive on the statement and negative against the cost of everything else.

Month over month, after seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.1%, the 10-City 0.3% and the 20-City 0.2%. S&P also noted that June sits near the peak of the buying season, so seasonal support for monthly gains typically fades from here.

Nearly nine points from top to bottom

The spread is the part worth carrying forward. Chicago led all twenty metros for the fourth consecutive month at +6.9%, followed by New York at +4.8% and Cleveland at +4.1%. At the other end, Seattle fell 2.0%, Las Vegas 1.9% and Denver 1.2%.

Chicago to Seattle is a spread of nearly nine percentage points inside a single national index reading 1.5%. S&P describes the pattern as a years-long trend of Northeastern and Midwestern markets regaining strength while much of the West and the Sun Belt softens.

The FHFA index released the same week points the same way, with all nine census divisions positive but the East North Central division at 4.5% against the Pacific at just above zero. We covered the FHFA second-quarter reading separately, and the two indices are built differently enough that they are worth reading together rather than treating either as confirmation of the other.

Two figures that do not sit comfortably together

Honesty requires flagging a tension rather than smoothing it. Case-Shiller has Tampa down 1.19% over the year to June, but on the month Tampa was one of the firmer metros in the set, up 0.72% before seasonal adjustment and 0.26% after. A market can be down over twelve months and up over one, and that combination is exactly what a market that fell earlier and has since flattened looks like.

We are not going to resolve which of those describes Tampa from a single monthly release, and neither should anyone quoting it. The annual figure and the monthly figure are both accurate and they support different sentences.

What this means in Northeast Florida

Three practical translations, all about the market rather than about who lives in it.

A national average is not an argument about a local home. With nine points between the strongest and weakest metro, "home prices rose 1.5%" is close to meaningless as a statement about a specific address. Anyone pricing a home this autumn should be working from local closed sales, not an index that does not include this market.

Real terms matter for the hold-versus-sell conversation. Thirteen straight months of values falling against inflation changes the arithmetic of waiting. A seller planning to hold for a better nominal number is accepting a real cost while doing so, and that is worth stating plainly rather than leaving implied.

Financing costs have not helped. S&P attributed continued pressure to 30-year rates holding near 6.5% in June. Freddie Mac's most recent survey, published August 27, put the 30-year fixed at 6.66%, against 6.65% the week before and 6.56% a year ago. Rates have not moved enough in a year to change anyone's calculation.

People also ask

Does Case-Shiller track Jacksonville home prices?

No. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite includes Tampa and Miami as its only two Florida metropolitan areas. Jacksonville is not among the twenty tracked markets, so the index cannot be read as a measure of Northeast Florida prices. It is useful for national and regional context, and for showing that Florida metros are diverging from one another, but local closed sales remain the only direct measure of this market.

Are US home prices actually rising in 2026?

In nominal terms, yes, modestly. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.5% over the year to June 2026. In real terms, no. S&P reported that June marked the thirteenth consecutive month in which U.S. home values fell after adjusting for inflation, because June inflation of 3.5% ran roughly two percentage points ahead of the nominal gain.

Which US housing markets are falling in 2026?

In the June 2026 Case-Shiller reading, seven metros posted annual declines. Detroit had no valid June update because of recording-office delays in Wayne County, so nineteen of the twenty tracked metros carry a June figure. Seattle fell the most at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas at 1.9%, Denver at 1.2%, Tampa at 1.2%, Phoenix at 0.9%, Dallas at 0.7% and Portland at 0.4%. The strongest were Chicago at 6.9%, New York at 4.8% and Cleveland at 4.1%.

Sources

• S&P Dow Jones Indices, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in June 2026," released August 25, 2026. Metro-level figures in this brief are read from Table 2 of that release.
• Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, second quarter 2026, released the same week.
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, August 27, 2026.

All third-party figures are attributed to their publisher and dated. Momentum Research does not independently verify national index data. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.