Lake Padgett Estates vs Willow Bend
Two Pasco communities, compared on the numbers that decide it — price, pace, and supply — from live MLS data as of 2026-10-12.
| Metric | Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $397K | $520K |
| Price per sq ft | $248 | $233 |
| Avg days on market | 125 days | 32 days |
| Months of supply | 2.8 mo | 2.7 mo |
| Market | Balanced Market | Seller's Market |
| 1-year price change | False | False |
| Recent closings | 51 | 27 |
The verdict
Willow Bend carries the higher median price — about 31% above Lake Padgett Estates. Homes in Willow Bend sell faster (32 days on market vs 125). Willow Bend is the tighter market on inventory (2.7 months of supply).
Where each one is
Lake Padgett Estates and Willow Bend are about 2 miles apart (straight-line, center to center) and share Pasco County.
| Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend | |
|---|---|---|
| County | Pasco County, FL | Pasco County, FL |
| City / area | Land O Lakes | Lutz |
| ZIP | 34639 | 33549 |
| FEMA flood zones (sampled parcels) | all 20 sampled homes outside a flood zone | all 13 sampled homes outside a flood zone |
Distances are straight-line; driving distance is usually 15 to 30 percent more. Flood-zone shares come from FEMA flood maps matched to sampled parcels; always check the exact address before you close.
What is for sale today
| Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend | |
|---|---|---|
| Homes for sale now | 12 | 6 |
| Under contract | 1 | 3 |
| Asking prices today | $285K to $850K | $495K to $795K |
| Property types listed | Single Family Residence | Single Family Residence |
Live MLS counts, refreshed with every listing pull. Browse them: Lake Padgett Estates homes for sale · Willow Bend homes for sale.
The homes themselves
| Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend | |
|---|---|---|
| Homes (parcels) | 238 | 375 |
| Built | 1967–2024 (median 1984) | 1990–2007 (median 1997) |
| Typical living area | 1,834 sq ft | 2,414 sq ft |
| Homesteaded (owner-occupied) share | 83% | 88% |
Housing-stock figures from the Florida Department of Revenue 2025 assessment roll (public records).
Price history, year by year
| Year | Lake Padgett Estates median | Willow Bend median |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $165K (9 sales) | $205K (3 sales) |
| 2015 | $159K (41 sales) | $262K (14 sales) |
| 2016 | $184K (39 sales) | $280K (28 sales) |
| 2017 | $200K (46 sales) | $269K (31 sales) |
| 2018 | $215K (14 sales) | $304K (6 sales) |
| 2019 | $210K (7 sales) | $280K (7 sales) |
| 2021 | $341K (11 sales) | $468K (8 sales) |
| 2022 | $370K (45 sales) | $493K (25 sales) |
| 2023 | $403K (10 sales) | $515K (12 sales) |
| 2024 | $485K (33 sales) | $504K (22 sales) |
| 2025 | $400K (33 sales) | $530K (19 sales) |
| 2026 | $425K (23 sales) | $525K (23 sales) |
Since 2013, Lake Padgett Estates's median sale price is +158% and Willow Bend's is +156% — Lake Padgett Estates has appreciated faster over that stretch.
How each one trades
| Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend | |
|---|---|---|
| Sale-to-original-list | 93.4% | 96.4% |
| New-construction share of sales | 0% | 0% |
| Typical sold home | 1,936 sq ft | 2,171 sq ft |
| Momentum market-heat score | 25 (cold) | 49 (normal) |
Last 12 months of recorded closings; sale-to-original-list is the share of the first asking price sellers actually got.
Schools the listings are zoned for
| Lake Padgett Estates | Willow Bend | |
|---|---|---|
| Elementary | Pine View Elementary-Po | Lake Myrtle Elementary-Po |
| Middle | Pine View Middle-Po | Charles S. Rushe Middle-Po |
| High school | Land O' Lakes High-Po | Sunlake High School-Po |
The school most often recorded on each community's MLS listings. Always confirm a specific address with the district.
Which one fits
On budget alone, Lake Padgett Estates is the lower entry point (median $397K vs $520K). Buyers who want newer construction (fewer near-term roof, HVAC and re-plumb items, and easier insurance quotes in Florida) will find it in Willow Bend; Lake Padgett Estates trades that for a more established street and, typically, larger lots. Sellers get a faster sale in Willow Bend (32 days on market on average); buyers get more negotiating room where homes sit longer.
Neither number set decides it: drive both on a weekday evening, check the HOA documents and the flood zone for the exact street, and price the insurance before you write an offer. A Momentum agent who works both communities can pull the comparable sales for any two specific homes.
Questions people ask
Is Willow Bend more expensive than Lake Padgett Estates?
Yes, on recent sales: the median sale price in Willow Bend is $520,000 versus $397,000 in Lake Padgett Estates, about 31% higher.
How far apart are Lake Padgett Estates and Willow Bend?
About 2 miles straight-line, center to center, both in Pasco County; driving distance is usually 15 to 30 percent more.
Which has newer homes, Lake Padgett Estates or Willow Bend?
Willow Bend: its homes were built 1990–2007 with a median year of 1997, versus a median of 1984 in Lake Padgett Estates (Florida DOR assessment roll).
Which has bigger homes?
Willow Bend. The typical home there is 2,414 sq ft of living area, versus 1,834 sq ft in Lake Padgett Estates.
Which has appreciated more, Lake Padgett Estates or Willow Bend?
From 2013 to 2026 the median sale price rose 158% in Lake Padgett Estates and 156% in Willow Bend (recorded MLS closings by calendar year).
Where do sellers get closer to asking price?
Willow Bend — sellers there received 96.4% of the original list price over the last 12 months versus 93.4% in Lake Padgett Estates.
What high schools serve Lake Padgett Estates and Willow Bend?
Listings in Lake Padgett Estates most often report Land O' Lakes High-Po; listings in Willow Bend report Sunlake High School-Po. Zoning is set by the district and can change - verify by address.
Go deeper on each: Lake Padgett Estates homes, photos & schools · Willow Bend homes, photos & schools
Figures are aggregates from realMLS / DBAAR, updated regularly. Thinking about either? Talk to Momentum Realty.