Data Analysis
Builders stopped breaking ground in July. They kept filing permits.
The Census Bureau's July report has starts down 12.4% and permits up 5.0%, the widest split of the year. In our Florida closing data, the builder pullback has been underway for two years.
Builders started construction on 12.4% fewer homes in July than in June, an annualized rate of 1,239,000 against June's 1,415,000, and 13.5% fewer than a year ago. In the same month they filed 5.0% more permits.
That split is the report.
A permit is an option. It costs a filing fee and it buys the right to build when conditions justify it. A start is capital committed: land carried, crews scheduled, draws opening on a construction loan. When permits rise while starts fall, builders are telling you they want the right to build and do not want the exposure of building now.
The numbers, from the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release for July, published August 18:
| Measure | July 2026 (SAAR) | vs June | vs July 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building permits | 1,443,000 | +5.0% | +3.1% |
| Single-family permits | 894,000 | +2.5% | +1.1% |
| Housing starts | 1,239,000 | -12.4% | -13.5% |
| Single-family starts | 808,000 | -9.9% | -15.7% |
| Completions | 1,212,000 | -9.1% | -16.8% |
The South, the 16-state region that contains Florida and carries more homebuilding than the other three regions combined, ran at a 645,000 annualized start rate in July, 52% of the national total. Single-family starts are down 15.7% from a year ago nationally, and completions are down 16.8%, which means the pipeline is thinning at both ends.
What our own closing data shows
Census counts what builders begin. Our MLS feeds count what they finish and sell. Across the six Florida markets where our new-construction records reconcile exactly for every month of the last two years, new construction was 11.4% of closed sales in July 2024. This July it was 8.0%.
That is not a one-month reaction to a rate move. It is a share that has drifted down for two years, which is what a starts pullback looks like by the time it reaches the closing table.
Where builders are still closing volume in Florida, they are competing on price. In July, the median new-construction sale in the Fort Myers market was $338,000 against a $361,000 resale median, 6.4% below it, with new construction at 23% of all closings. In the Panama City market the new-build median ran 10.6% below resale. Ocala, where new construction is 36% of the market, still carries a 13.2% premium, and Tampa's new-build median runs 18.4% above resale.
What this number does not mean
A monthly starts figure is an estimate with a wide band. Census publishes July's 12.4% decline as plus or minus 9.5 percentage points, so the honest range runs from a 3% drop to a 22% one. The direction is established. The precision is not.
Rising permits do not promise rising starts. Permits are cheap and starts are not, and a permit filed in July can sit unused into 2027.
And the South region is not Florida. It runs from Delaware to Texas. Census does not publish state-level detail in this release, which is exactly why we put our own Florida closing data beside it.
If you are in this market
Buying new construction in Southwest Florida or the Panhandle, you are negotiating with builders who are already pricing below comparable resales. Ask for the incentive sheet, not just the list price. In markets like Ocala and Tampa where the premium holds, the question to ask is what the resale down the street closed at last month.
Selling a resale home in a market where builders are discounting, the builder is your competition, and the builder can buy down a mortgage rate. Price against what buyers can actually get, not against your neighbor's list price.
For everyone else, fewer starts now means fewer completions in 2027. The inventory relief Florida buyers have enjoyed for two years was built in 2024 and 2025. Today's report is the supply picture for two years out, and it is thinner.
Limitations
National figures above are the Census Bureau's, seasonally adjusted annual rates, preliminary and subject to revision, each carrying the confidence ranges printed in the release. Our new-construction share is computed from six markets, Fort Lauderdale, Ocala, Space Coast, St. Petersburg, Tampa and West Palm Beach, the only markets where our new-construction and resale counts reconcile to total closings in every month charted. It is not a statewide figure, and we do not publish a statewide new-construction share because our statewide feeds do not reconcile well enough to support one. New-construction status comes from MLS records and can be misreported at entry. Closed sales lag construction decisions by months, so our July closings reflect starts and pricing decisions made earlier.
Sources and links
- U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, July 2026
- Data hubs:
/data/fort-myers/,/data/panama-city/,/data/ocala/,/data/tampa/,/data/west-palm-beach/ - Related:
/news/florida/lee-county-new-construction-below-resale-july-2026/
Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.
Market statistics in this article are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This article is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.
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