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Data Analysis

South Florida's one housing metro is three markets: Palm Beach up 10.5%, Broward up 8.5%, Miami-Dade down 0.9%

Florida Realtors publishes Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach as a single metropolitan area. July's county figures show the three moving in different directions.

The median closed price in Palm Beach County in July was $525,000, up 10.5% from a year earlier. In Broward it was $470,000, up 8.5%. In Miami-Dade it was $545,000, down 0.9%.

Those three counties are one market in the release everyone will quote this month. Florida Realtors publishes them as the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan statistical area, and for July it reported a single-family median of $665,000, up 4.3%, on 3,384 closings, plus 2,958 condo and townhouse sales at a median of $325,000, up 1.6%.

That metro figure is accurate. It also averages an 11-point spread.

What the counties do separately

Miami-Dade closed 1,986 residential sales in July, up 6.7% from 1,862. Volume is not the story there. Price is: the county median slipped while the two counties north of it posted the largest gains of any market we cover.

Miami-Dade also takes longer and gives up more. Half of what sold went under contract within 53 days, against a metro where sellers received 94.3% of original list price, up from 93.4% a year ago. Price per square foot in the county was $389, up 2.6%, which matters because it moves the opposite way from the median. When the midpoint falls and the per-foot figure rises, the homes that sold got smaller.

Add the three counties together and our count comes to 6,591 against Florida Realtors' 6,342 for the same month. We run about 4% above them, which is the direction to expect. Ours is computed live and theirs was compiled on the 10th, so we hold late-reported closings they do not, and our residential category is wider than their two published segments.

The condo half

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach is the largest condo and townhouse market in Florida by a wide margin. It did 2,958 closings in July, more than a third of every condo sale in the state, at a median of $325,000.

Year to date the metro's condo median is $340,000, unchanged from last year, on 19,991 closings, up 6.2%. More units are trading and the midpoint has not moved. Statewide the condo median is down 1.0% year to date, so South Florida is holding a line the rest of the state is not.

What this does not mean

An 11-point spread between counties is not evidence that Miami-Dade is a weaker market than Palm Beach. Medians describe what sold, and these three counties have different housing stock, different price bands and different mixes of condo and single-family. Miami-Dade's midpoint is still the highest of the three.

It also does not mean a home in Miami-Dade lost value over the year. A county median moving down 0.9% is a statement about the middle of one month's transactions. It is not an appraisal, and this release does not contain one.

The single-family and condo figures above are never combined. Florida Realtors publishes them as two series and does not blend them, because a blended median mostly tracks which segment happened to sell more that month. Any single Florida or South Florida median quoted for July was either picked from one segment without saying so, or built from something they did not publish.

If you are in this market

Buying in Miami-Dade means shopping the one county of the three where the midpoint has come down over twelve months, with a 53-day median time to contract. Sellers there are accepting about 94 cents on the original dollar.

Buying in Palm Beach or Broward means the opposite trend and the same concession rate. Whatever pricing power sellers have gained, they are still not holding original list.

Selling in any of the three, the comparable set matters more than usual. A metro-level number pulled from a news story is describing an area that runs from Jupiter to Homestead. Ask for county comps, and then for comps inside your own price band.

If you own and are not selling, none of these figures describe your property.

Limitations

Our county figures cover Miami-Dade through the MIAMI Association of Realtors feed, and Broward and Palm Beach through BeachesMLS. Neither is a census of its county. Florida Realtors does not publish county-level figures for this metro at all, so the three-county split shown here cannot be checked against them directly. What can be checked is the sum, and it reconciles to within 4%.

Both sides are preliminary. Late-reported closings move ours and theirs.

Sources and links

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.

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Market statistics in this article are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This article is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.

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