Market Brief
The national housing market is stable. The South is where it is not.
Existing-home sales in the South fell 3.1% in July to a 1.86 million annual rate and the median price rose 0.9%, the weakest of the four US regions.
The daily read on the numbers that set Florida housing costs. Today: the regional split inside a national existing-home sales report that looks calm on its cover page, and this week's mortgage rate.
The national number says stable
The National Association of REALTORS released its July existing-home sales report on August 11. Sales fell 1.7% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, and rose 0.7% against July 2025. The median existing-home price reached $434,100, up 2.0% from $425,700 a year ago and the 37th consecutive month of year over year price increases. Inventory was 1.54 million units, a 4.6-month supply, unchanged from both last month and last year.
Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, described sales as "remarkably stable" through a period of rising rates, and noted year to date sales are up 2.4%.
On the national aggregate that reading holds. The regional table underneath it does not support the same sentence everywhere.
The regional table is where the story is
| region | July sales, annual rate | change on the month | change on the year | median price | price, change on the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 500,000 | up 2.0% | unchanged | $563,800 | up 5.2% |
| Midwest | 970,000 | down 2.0% | up 2.1% | $342,900 | up 2.8% |
| South | 1,860,000 | down 3.1% | unchanged | $371,700 | up 0.9% |
| West | 730,000 | unchanged | up 1.4% | $622,200 | up 0.2% |
The South posted the largest monthly sales decline of any region, no year over year sales growth, and price growth of 0.9%, less than half the national 2.0% and less than a fifth of the Northeast's 5.2%.
Two things are worth saying carefully about that.
First, the South is the largest region in the report by a wide margin. At 1.86 million of a 4.06 million national annual rate, it is roughly 46% of all existing-home sales in the country. A region that size moving down 3.1% while the national number moves down 1.7% is most of the national decline.
Second, the West's median price rose 0.2%, which is lower than the South's 0.9%. So the South is not alone at the bottom on price, and this is not a story about one region breaking away from three healthy ones. It is a story about two large regions, together more than 60% of national sales, showing essentially flat prices while the Northeast runs at 5.2%.
Florida is inside the South region and is not broken out in this release. Nothing here is a Florida figure.
Affordability improved most in the region that slowed most
The same report puts the Housing Affordability Index at 103.3, against 98.3 a year ago, and shows affordability improving year over year in every region:
- South: up 6.1%
- West: up 7.3%
- Midwest: up 4.0%
- Northeast: up 1.5%
That combination is not a contradiction, but it is worth reading slowly. Affordability improves when prices soften, incomes rise, or rates fall. In the South, prices rose 0.9% against a national 2.0%, so the affordability gain is coming substantially from the price side going quiet rather than from buyers getting better financing. Improving affordability of that kind is a symptom of a market cooling, not evidence of one recovering.
Who is actually buying
The REALTORS Confidence Index inside the release describes a buyer mix that has shifted materially in a year:
- Cash sales: 26% of transactions, up from 25% in June but down from 31% a year ago.
- Investors and second-home buyers: 14%, up from 13% in June but down from 20% a year ago.
- First-time buyers: 29%, down from 33% in June, up from 28% a year ago.
- Median time on market: 29 days, against 28 days both last month and a year ago.
- Distressed sales: 2%, unchanged on the month and the year.
The cash and investor lines are the ones that matter for Florida. Both are down roughly five to six percentage points in a year. Investor and cash demand has historically been a larger share of Florida transactions than of the national market, so a national retreat of that size is a headwind that lands harder here than the national average implies. That is a statement about exposure and not a measurement of Florida, which this release does not provide.
Single family held, condos did not move at all
- Single family: 3.69 million annual rate, down 1.9% on the month, up 0.8% on the year. Median $440,300, up 1.9%.
- Condo and co-op: 370,000 annual rate, unchanged on the month and unchanged on the year. Median $371,800, up 2.2%.
A flat condo sales line nationally is not the same thing as the Florida condo situation, which is a supply and carrying-cost story specific to this state. But it does mean the national condo market is not absorbing anything either.
This week's rate
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 20 put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.65%, down from 6.67% the week before. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.95%, down from 5.96%.
One year ago the 30-year averaged 6.58% and the 15-year 5.69%. So after consecutive weekly declines, the 30-year is still 7 basis points above where it sat a year ago, and the 15-year is 26 basis points above. Rates are falling and are not yet back to last summer.
A note on how that is worded. Coverage of the August 20 release describes it as the second straight weekly decline, while this desk's August 19 brief described the August 13 reading of 6.67% as the second consecutive decline. Those two framings cannot both be right, and the difference does not change any level. Both are recorded here and neither count is used.
Separately, NAR reports the 30-year averaged 6.54% across the month of July, up from 6.49% in June and down from 6.72% in July 2025.
One discrepancy in the source, noted
NAR's own release carries the median price as $434,100 in the headline, the summary bullets and the body. The infographic published alongside it states $431,400. That is a $2,700 gap and looks like a transposition in the graphic. The figure used throughout this brief is the one in the release text.
What this means in Northeast Florida
Three things, in order of confidence.
High confidence: the national price line is not the local price line. A 2.0% national median increase and a 0.9% southern increase are both national statistics. Our own record of realMLS closings shows Northeast Florida is not one market either: county medians in 2026 span roughly $265,000 in Putnam to $570,000 in St. Johns. Any client conversation that starts from the national median is starting from a number that describes nobody's house.
Moderate confidence: the cash and investor retreat is the line to watch. Cash at 26% against 31% a year ago, and investors at 14% against 20%, removes a category of buyer that competes without financing. In a market where that buyer has been a meaningful share, fewer of them means a listing sits longer rather than sells cheaper, at least at first.
Stated as exposure, not prediction: flat prices with improving affordability is what the beginning of a longer flat stretch looks like. It is also what the beginning of a recovery looks like. This release does not distinguish between them, and this brief will not pretend otherwise.
People also ask
How much did existing-home sales fall in July 2026?
Existing-home sales fell 1.7% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July 2026, according to the National Association of REALTORS report released August 11, 2026. Sales were up 0.7% against July 2025, and year to date sales were up 2.4%.
Why are home prices rising more slowly in the South?
The NAR release reports the fact, not the cause. The South's median existing-home price rose 0.9% year over year in July 2026 against a national 2.0%, and the region also posted the largest monthly sales decline at 3.1%. Sales in the South were flat against a year earlier while the Midwest and West grew. The release does not attribute a cause, and neither does this brief.
What is the mortgage rate right now?
Freddie Mac's survey for the week ending August 20, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.65%, down from 6.67% the previous week, and the 15-year fixed at 5.95%. One year earlier those averages were 6.58% and 5.69%, so the 30-year remains about 7 basis points higher than a year ago despite recent weekly declines.
Sources
- National Association of REALTORS, Existing-Home Sales Report, July 2026, released August 11, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending August 20, 2026.
- Momentum Research analysis of data provided by realMLS, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau, Putnam and St. Johns counties.
Related coverage: housing starts fell while permits rose in July and pending home sales slipped in July.
Figures are as published by their sources on the dates given and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.
Market statistics in this article are computed from MLS data licensed by Momentum Realty, and are current as of the date shown. Data may be preliminary and subject to revision by its source. This article is general information, not advice about any specific property, transaction, or financial decision, and is not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association.
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