For immediate release
A Jacksonville brokerage's review of builder disclosures, NAHB survey data and Census migration estimates argues that Florida's problem is not a housing shortage but a mismatch, with a large share of real discounting invisible in headline price data.
Read the full analysis. This release summarizes a longer piece: Shadow Inventory and the Builder Discounts That Never Show on Paper, which walks through the incentive mechanics, the five categories of committed supply, and the model behind the price outlook.
JACKSONVILLE, FL, August 8, 2026. Most discounting in American homebuilding no longer shows up as a lower price. According to a new analysis published free by Momentum Realty, builders are increasingly moving homes with mortgage rate buydowns, closing-cost credits and upgrade packages rather than cutting the sticker price, which means the discounts buyers actually receive never reach the recorded sale price that appraisals and price indexes are built from.
The analysis, published at movewithmomentum.com/blog/florida-shadow-inventory-builder-discounts, draws on National Association of Home Builders survey data, public homebuilder disclosures, Mortgage Bankers Association delinquency data and Census Bureau migration estimates compiled by the University of Florida.
The core finding: incentives are running roughly twice as common as price cuts. NAHB reported that 63% of builders used sales incentives in July 2026, the sixteenth consecutive month at 60% or higher, while 37% cut prices, at an average reduction of about 6%. Industry-wide, incentives are running in the range of 7% to 8% of sale price. PulteGroup disclosed incentives at 10.9% of gross sales price in the first quarter of 2026.
"When a builder cuts the sticker price, it creates a new, lower comparable sale for every remaining home in that community," said Jon Brooks, co-founder of Momentum Realty. "That damages appraisals on homes still under contract and resets the value of the whole phase. So builders reach for tools that lower the monthly payment without lowering the recorded price. The discount is real. It just does not appear on paper."
Five categories of supply that never reach the MLS
The analysis argues that months-of-supply figures, typically built from active MLS listings, understate future competition in new-construction corridors, because many builders list only one or two model homes. It identifies five categories of committed supply that carry different timelines: completed standing inventory, homes under construction, finished lots, platted future phases, and land held under option.
"Months of supply measures listed competition. It says very little about committed competition," Brooks said. "A resale seller near an active builder community is not competing with the six houses on their street. They are competing with a balance sheet."
The demand assumption underneath the building has changed
Florida's net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025, a decline of roughly 93%, according to Census Bureau estimates compiled by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida ranked eighth nationally for net domestic migration in 2025, and Miami-Dade County recorded a domestic net loss of nearly 73,000 residents.
The analysis notes that Florida is not losing population overall, and that mid-sized counties including Polk, Pasco and Marion continue to grow. Its argument is narrower: that a large volume of 2021 through 2023 construction was committed against a migration curve that has since fallen by more than 90%, and that builders concentrated production in a mid-level price band rather than the entry-level product local wages can support.
Florida's median household income is near $68,000, while comfortably carrying a typical home in the Jacksonville market, including property taxes and insurance, requires closer to $100,000 to $115,000.
Distress is surfacing in FHA data
FHA delinquencies reached 11.88% in the first quarter of 2026 per the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey, up from 11.52% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with FHA foreclosure inventory at its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2018. Pandemic-era FHA loss mitigation options expired at the end of September 2025.
On the rental side, the analysis reports that Jacksonville multifamily vacancy has climbed to roughly 12.2%, the highest among Florida's major metros, with concessions such as free rent periods now standard on new lease-ups, even as metro average asking rents are down only modestly year over year.
A stated forecast, labeled as opinion
The analysis includes Brooks's own outlook: that prices in the Northeast Florida market could correct roughly 31% to 42% from their October 2022 peak, based on a model that solves for the price at which an all-cash investor would earn sufficient monthly cash flow after Florida property taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy and financing costs. Northeast Florida prices fell roughly 36% during the global financial crisis.
Momentum Realty presents this figure explicitly as analysis and opinion rather than a forecast of any specific property's value, and the published piece includes a list of conditions that would change the conclusion, including lower mortgage rates, a reversal in migration, or stabilizing insurance costs.
"I am underwriting a range and publishing the assumptions," Brooks said. "Anyone claiming certainty about a five to ten year housing path, including me, should be treated with suspicion."
Methodology and sources
Builder incentive and price-cut figures are from NAHB survey data reported for July 2026 and December 2025, and from PulteGroup's first-quarter 2026 disclosures. Delinquency figures are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey for the first quarter of 2026. Migration figures are Census Bureau estimates compiled by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Florida condominium and townhouse inventory figures reflect Florida Realtors data for the second quarter of 2026. Rental figures reflect published Jacksonville metro market data. Per-county housing data referenced in the analysis is published free by Momentum Realty for all 67 Florida counties at movewithmomentum.com/data/fl, with machine-readable data at movewithmomentum.com/data/fl/api/counties-index.json.
Journalists are welcome to cite these figures with attribution to "Momentum Realty" and to link or embed the underlying county data.
About Momentum Realty
Founded in 2020 by Jon and Brittany Brooks, Momentum Realty is an independent real estate brokerage headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida. The brokerage operates a 100% commission model supporting nearly 300 agents across Florida, has closed more than $3.5 billion in volume, and was ranked #440 in the U.S. on the RealTrends 500. Momentum publishes a free, transparent Florida housing-data platform covering all 67 counties and 887 ZIP codes, including buyer-value scores, a migration map, insurance analysis and calculators. Momentum Realty is an Equal Housing Opportunity brokerage.
Press Contact
Jon Brooks Co-Founder, Momentum Realty Email: jon@movewithmomentum.com Phone: (904) 351-6461 Full analysis: movewithmomentum.com/blog/florida-shadow-inventory-builder-discounts Data platform: movewithmomentum.com/data/fl Press page: movewithmomentum.com/press
Figures cited are current as of publication and will change. Forecasts and model outputs described above are the analysis and opinion of Jon Brooks and are not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, nor a representation about any specific property, community or builder. Momentum Realty is an Equal Housing Opportunity brokerage.