On October 28, 2026, 24/7 Wall St. ran a story about Florida owners who bought in 2022 and now find the house is worth less while everything else costs more. Using the Federal Housing Finance Agency index, it found prices in the Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro about 9% below their third quarter 2022 level and Punta Gorda about 10% below, while West Palm Beach–Boca Raton was up about 17%. That spread is the whole story. Whether your Florida home is worth less than you paid depends on two things more than anything else: the county you bought in, and the year you bought.
So we ran the question for every county. Using the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), we compared each Florida county’s typical home value in June of each purchase year with its value in September 2026, the latest month in our Florida housing tracker. The result surprises most owners we talk to: the 2022 buyers are not the most exposed group. The 2024 buyers are.
The short answer depends on the year you bought
Here is how many of Florida’s 67 counties have a typical home value today below the level in June of each year, and the median change across all counties:
| If you bought around | Counties below that level today | Median county change |
|---|---|---|
| June 2019 | 0 of 67 | +58.7% |
| June 2021 | 0 of 67 | +24.9% |
| June 2022 | 33 of 67 | +0.2% |
| June 2023 | 44 of 67 | −2.4% |
| June 2024 | 58 of 67 | −5.8% |
| June 2025 | 53 of 67 | −2.4% |
Read it this way. If you bought in 2021 or earlier, your county’s typical value is above where it was when you bought, in every county in the state. Owners who bought in 2019 are up at least +35% even in the weakest county, Charlotte. If you bought in June 2022, it is a coin flip: 33 counties are below and 34 are above, and the median county is almost exactly flat (+0.2%). If you bought in 2023, 44 counties are below. If you bought in 2024, 58 of 67 are below, and the median county is −5.8%.
Why would a 2024 buyer be worse off than a 2022 buyer who bought closer to the famous peak? Because in most of Florida, typical values did not peak in 2022. They kept edging up through 2023 and into 2024 before the correction that followed, which is visible in rising inventory and price cuts across the state. A 2024 purchase price often sat at or near the top of the curve.
The 15 largest counties: 2022 vs 2024 buyers
The table below shows the county typical value in June 2022, June 2024 and September 2026 for Florida’s 15 most populous counties, with the change since each purchase year.
| County | June 2022 | June 2024 | Sept 2026 | Since 2022 | Since 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | $464K | $539K | $523K | +12.8% | −2.8% |
| Broward | $405K | $454K | $422K | +4.2% | −7.0% |
| Palm Beach | $470K | $502K | $476K | +1.3% | −5.2% |
| Hillsborough | $398K | $405K | $376K | −5.7% | −7.4% |
| Orange | $400K | $426K | $401K | +0.2% | −6.0% |
| Duval | $311K | $313K | $294K | −5.6% | −6.1% |
| Pinellas | $397K | $413K | $369K | −7.1% | −10.6% |
| Lee | $405K | $398K | $334K | −17.5% | −15.9% |
| Polk | $315K | $320K | $296K | −6.2% | −7.5% |
| Brevard | $358K | $365K | $342K | −4.5% | −6.2% |
| Pasco | $356K | $360K | $328K | −7.9% | −8.9% |
| Volusia | $337K | $347K | $325K | −3.7% | −6.6% |
| Seminole | $395K | $425K | $400K | +1.3% | −5.8% |
| Sarasota | $476K | $464K | $399K | −16.2% | −14.0% |
| Manatee | $471K | $463K | $408K | −13.4% | −11.9% |
Miami-Dade stands out: a June 2022 buyer there is +12.8% on the county index, while a June 2024 buyer is −2.8%. Broward and Palm Beach follow the same shape. On the Gulf coast the picture is harder for every recent cohort: Lee is −17.5% from June 2022 and −15.9% from June 2024, and Sarasota and Manatee are down double digits from both years. Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough sit between, below both reference points by mid single digits to about 10%.
Where values fell the most since 2022
The seven largest county declines from June 2022 to September 2026 are Charlotte (−22.1%), Lee (−17.5%), Sarasota (−16.2%), Manatee (−13.4%), Flagler (−12.1%), Holmes (−10.9%), Walton (−10.5%). Most are in Southwest Florida, which matches outside reporting. Sarasota Magazine, citing a ResiClub analysis of Zillow data, reported on August 31, 2026 that North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton metro values remained 17% below their 2022 peak, with condo values falling faster than single-family homes. Our county figures are smaller than that peak-to-now figure because we compare June 2022, not the single highest month, and because a county index blends condos and houses across every price tier.
On the other side, the largest gains since June 2022 are in Union (+17.2%), Gilchrist (+14.7%), Okeechobee (+13.3%), Hardee (+13.2%), Miami-Dade (+12.8%). Most of those are smaller inland counties with lower starting prices, plus Miami-Dade, the one large urban county still clearly above its 2022 level.
Northeast Florida: Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau and Baker
For our home market, here is the county index change from June of each purchase year to September 2026:
| County | Since June 2021 | Since June 2022 | Since June 2023 | Since June 2024 | Since June 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duval | +19.6% | −5.6% | −4.9% | −6.1% | −2.4% |
| St. Johns | +24.6% | −6.0% | −5.0% | −5.7% | −2.3% |
| Clay | +23.5% | −3.6% | −2.4% | −3.8% | −1.4% |
| Nassau | +28.4% | +0.2% | −0.4% | −1.4% | −0.3% |
| Baker | +24.8% | +2.7% | +6.1% | +3.1% | +2.9% |
The Jacksonville area sits in the middle of the state’s range. Duval’s typical value was $311,449 in June 2022, $313,080 in June 2024 and $294,079 in September 2026. St. Johns follows a similar path at a higher price point. Nassau is roughly flat against 2022, and Baker is the one Northeast Florida county above every recent purchase year. For neighborhood and ZIP detail, the Jacksonville real estate market report breaks the numbers down further.
Worth less than you paid is not the same as underwater
A lower value hurts on paper, but what matters for your options is equity: what the home would sell for, minus your loan, minus the cost of selling. Two owners with the same house and the same decline can be in very different places.
Take a $400,000 Duval home bought in June 2024, with a 30-year loan at an illustrative 7% rate. If the home tracked the county index (−6.1%), it would be worth about $375,724 now. That is an illustration of the index applied to a round number, not a value for any real home.
- With 3.5% down, the loan started at $386,000 and, after 28 monthly payments of about $2,568 in principal and interest, the balance is about $376,407. On paper the owner holds about $-683 in equity. After selling costs of 7% (about $26,301), a sale would require roughly $26,983 in cash at closing.
- With 20% down, the balance is about $312,047, and the same sale would net roughly $37,376 after costs.
Selling costs vary, and agent commissions are always negotiable, so your number will differ. The point is that a small down payment plus a few percent of decline is the combination that traps people, not the decline alone. Nationally, ATTOM reported that the share of mortgaged homes that are seriously underwater was 3.2% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.7% a year earlier, and its first quarter report found Florida had the largest year-over-year drop in its share of equity-rich homes, from 49.3% to 43.2%. To run your own figures, use our Florida home equity checker; we updated it today so you can pick your county and purchase year and see the county change next to your own numbers.
What to do if your county is below your purchase year
- Know your real number first. A county index is a starting point, not a value for your home. Condition, home type, lot and street all move differently. A comparative market analysis from an agent gives you a real range.
- If you do not need to move, time is on your side. Each payment lowers the balance, and a paper loss is only realized when you sell. Our look at whether Florida home prices will drop further covers what the data says about the next year.
- If you must sell, run the offer math before you list. The offer calculator shows net proceeds at different prices. If the numbers show a shortfall, read the Florida short sale guide and talk to your lender early.
- Check your carrying costs. Your purchase reset your assessed value to market, so a recent buyer often pays more property tax than a long-time neighbor in a similar home. If you move within Florida, the Save Our Homes portability calculator shows how much of your homestead benefit you can carry. Insurance is often the other big lever.
How we measured this
We used the Zillow Home Value Index for each Florida county: the typical home value for all home types (single-family and condo) in the middle price tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. Our tracker stores June of each year as the annual anchor and the latest month, September 2026. Each change compares September 2026 with June of the purchase year. June 2022 is close to, but not always exactly at, a county’s highest month, so peak-to-now declines reported elsewhere can be larger. A county index describes the overall market, not any single home, street or neighborhood. The full county table is below.
All 67 Florida counties, sorted by change since June 2022
| County | June 2022 | Sept 2026 | Since 2022 | Since 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | $384K | $299K | −22.1% | −18.1% |
| Lee | $405K | $334K | −17.5% | −15.9% |
| Sarasota | $476K | $399K | −16.2% | −14.0% |
| Manatee | $471K | $408K | −13.4% | −11.9% |
| Flagler | $398K | $350K | −12.1% | −7.0% |
| Holmes | $203K | $181K | −10.9% | −10.1% |
| Walton | $739K | $661K | −10.5% | −5.8% |
| Collier | $613K | $552K | −9.9% | −11.6% |
| Franklin | $463K | $422K | −8.8% | −9.7% |
| Pasco | $356K | $328K | −7.9% | −8.9% |
| Pinellas | $397K | $369K | −7.1% | −10.6% |
| Calhoun | $179K | $167K | −6.9% | −12.6% |
| Polk | $315K | $296K | −6.2% | −7.5% |
| St. Johns | $524K | $493K | −6.0% | −5.7% |
| Sumter | $412K | $388K | −5.9% | −3.1% |
| Indian River | $386K | $364K | −5.9% | −8.0% |
| Osceola | $381K | $359K | −5.8% | −8.3% |
| Hillsborough | $398K | $376K | −5.7% | −7.4% |
| Duval | $311K | $294K | −5.6% | −6.1% |
| DeSoto | $264K | $250K | −5.2% | −6.6% |
| Citrus | $282K | $269K | −4.6% | −6.8% |
| Brevard | $358K | $342K | −4.5% | −6.2% |
| Hernando | $320K | $306K | −4.2% | −6.9% |
| Marion | $280K | $268K | −4.2% | −6.6% |
| Okaloosa | $368K | $353K | −4.1% | −4.3% |
| Bay | $357K | $343K | −4.0% | −5.8% |
| Martin | $467K | $448K | −4.0% | −7.6% |
| Lake | $375K | $360K | −3.9% | −6.2% |
| Volusia | $337K | $325K | −3.7% | −6.6% |
| Clay | $348K | $335K | −3.6% | −3.8% |
| St. Lucie | $384K | $371K | −3.4% | −6.4% |
| Monroe | $995K | $963K | −3.2% | −5.9% |
| Putnam | $217K | $216K | −0.5% | −4.0% |
| Jackson | $180K | $180K | +0.2% | −3.4% |
| Orange | $400K | $401K | +0.2% | −6.0% |
| Nassau | $484K | $485K | +0.2% | −1.4% |
| Dixie | $217K | $218K | +0.2% | +0.7% |
| Santa Rosa | $350K | $351K | +0.4% | −1.9% |
| Alachua | $297K | $299K | +0.6% | −6.0% |
| Madison | $205K | $206K | +0.7% | −2.1% |
| Taylor | $195K | $197K | +1.2% | −1.1% |
| Palm Beach | $470K | $476K | +1.3% | −5.2% |
| Seminole | $395K | $400K | +1.3% | −5.8% |
| Escambia | $275K | $280K | +1.7% | −2.4% |
| Gulf | $396K | $404K | +1.9% | −6.4% |
| Washington | $215K | $221K | +2.4% | −2.8% |
| Baker | $306K | $314K | +2.7% | +3.1% |
| Levy | $279K | $287K | +2.9% | −5.1% |
| Broward | $405K | $422K | +4.2% | −7.0% |
| Highlands | $222K | $231K | +4.2% | −5.8% |
| Leon | $277K | $291K | +5.2% | −1.9% |
| Glades | $243K | $257K | +5.6% | −5.9% |
| Wakulla | $270K | $286K | +6.0% | −1.4% |
| Suwannee | $251K | $267K | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Columbia | $252K | $268K | +6.1% | −1.3% |
| Hendry | $254K | $270K | +6.2% | −8.3% |
| Bradford | $235K | $253K | +7.3% | −0.1% |
| Gadsden | $181K | $200K | +10.2% | −4.6% |
| Hamilton | $188K | $207K | +10.3% | +0.8% |
| Jefferson | $277K | $306K | +10.4% | +1.7% |
| Liberty | $181K | $201K | +11.0% | −0.5% |
| Lafayette | $236K | $262K | +11.1% | +4.3% |
| Miami-Dade | $464K | $523K | +12.8% | −2.8% |
| Hardee | $208K | $235K | +13.2% | +0.3% |
| Okeechobee | $255K | $289K | +13.3% | +0.8% |
| Gilchrist | $267K | $306K | +14.7% | +3.3% |
| Union | $219K | $257K | +17.2% | −2.5% |
Frequently asked questions
Is my Florida home worth less than I paid?
It depends mostly on the year you bought and your county. By the Zillow Home Value Index, 33 of 67 Florida counties have a typical value in September 2026 below their June 2022 level, 44 are below June 2023 and 58 are below June 2024. No county is below its June 2021 level. Your own home can differ from the county, so get a comparative market analysis for a real number.
Which Florida counties have fallen the most since 2022?
Charlotte (−22.1%), Lee (−17.5%), Sarasota (−16.2%), Manatee (−13.4%) and Flagler (−12.1%) show the largest declines in the county typical home value from June 2022 to September 2026, per the Zillow Home Value Index.
Are 2024 buyers worse off than 2022 buyers in Florida?
In most counties, yes. Typical values kept rising into 2024 in many counties and have fallen since, so 58 of 67 counties sit below their June 2024 level versus 33 below June 2022. The median county is −5.8% from June 2024 and +0.2% from June 2022.
Is worth less than I paid the same as being underwater?
No. You are underwater only when you owe more than the home is worth. A buyer who put 20% down can be below the purchase price and still hold real equity. A buyer with a small down payment, or one who needs to sell and pay selling costs, can need cash to close even after a modest decline. Our home equity checker runs your numbers.
What is Duval County's home value change since 2022?
The Zillow typical home value for Duval County was $311,449 in June 2022 and $294,079 in September 2026, a change of −5.6%. Since June 2024 the change is −6.1%.
Should I sell if my home is worth less than I paid?
Not automatically. A paper loss only becomes real when you sell. If you do not need to move, holding while the loan pays down is often the simplest path. If you must sell, compare a listing, a price you would accept, and your payoff with an agent before you decide. Commissions are always negotiable.
Sources
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), county level, all homes, mid-tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, June 2019 to June 2025 and September 2026. Data provided by Zillow (zillow.com/research/data), as stored in the Momentum Realty Florida housing tracker, release 2026-10, published October 19, 2026.
- David Beren, “The Retirees Who Bought in Florida in 2022 Say the House Is Worth Less and Everything Else Costs More,” 24/7 Wall St., October 28, 2026, citing the FHFA House Price Index through the second quarter of 2026: 247wallst.com
- Kim Doleatto, Sarasota Magazine, August 31, 2026, citing ResiClub analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index: sarasotamagazine.com
- ATTOM Q2 2026 Home Equity and Underwater Report, as reported by Scotsman Guide, August 20, 2026: scotsmanguide.com
- ATTOM Q1 2026 Home Equity and Underwater Report, as reported by HousingWire, May 11, 2026: housingwire.com
How this article was prepared: county figures are the Zillow Home Value Index as described above; the worked example applies the Duval index change to a round $400,000 price with an illustrative 7% rate and stated down payments and selling costs. None of it is an appraisal, an automated valuation or a value for any specific property. Figures are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice.