Updated October 24, 2026. I will update this page with October data when it is released on November 16.
Will Florida home prices drop? Everyone asks me some version of that question, and the honest answer is that the price data is the last place you will see it. The contract data is where it shows up first, and right now it is flashing.
Consumer sentiment came in at 48.0 on Friday, October 23. That is down 10.4% from a year ago. In context, it is something I have never seen before: the five lowest consumer sentiment readings since this survey started in 1952 have all happened since April.
May 2026: 44.8. October: 48.0. September: 48.1. June: 49.5. April: 49.8.
Before this year, the floor was 50.0 in June 2022. Before that, the low was 51.7 in May 1980. In November 2008, in the middle of the financial crisis, sentiment was 55.3.
Americans feel worse about the economy today than they did in November 2008.
Here is why that matters for the Florida housing market, and why I think the market everyone calls "steady" is already turning.
How does consumer sentiment affect the housing market?
Most coverage stopped at the headline. The detail that matters for housing is a little further down.
The current conditions index fell to 46.7 from 50.9 in September, an 8.3% drop in one month. That entire decline came from one thing: buying conditions for big-ticket purchases, which plunged 18% because of higher interest rates and worries about affordability.
The biggest big-ticket purchase most buyers will ever make is a house.
And people are not just worried about now. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. In February they were 3.4%. Long-run expectations climbed to 3.5%, above the entire 2024 range. Sentiment overall is 15% below where it was in February.
So in eight months we went from a consumer who was starting to feel some relief to one who expects higher prices, sees higher rates, and is telling us directly that now is a bad time to buy anything big.
How much have mortgage rates raised the monthly payment?
On February 26, the average 30-year fixed rate hit 5.98%, the low for the year. On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest came to about $2,393 a month.
This week the average is 7.32%. That same $400,000 loan now costs about $2,748 a month. That is $355 more, every month, for the same house. The rate sat at 7.40% for two straight weeks earlier this month, the highest of the year.
A year ago the average was 6.19%. Go back to January 2021 and it was 2.65%, which put that payment at $1,612.
Rates are financial gravity. When they move this fast, buyers do not argue with it. They just stop. You can run your own numbers, with Florida property taxes included, on our Florida mortgage payment calculator. The principal and interest above leave out taxes and insurance, and in Florida that is not a small line.
Are Florida home prices dropping? Not yet. Contracts are.
This is where it shows up in housing. Not in prices. In contracts.
Nationally, pending home sales fell 7.3% from August to September and 11.3% from a year ago. They fell in all four regions of the country. The South was down 12.0% year over year.
Florida tells the same story, and the timing lines up with rates almost perfectly.
Earlier this year, with rates near 6%, new pending sales of existing single-family homes in Florida were running ahead of last year. April was up 8.0%. May was up 4.8%. June was up 4.1%. Then rates started climbing. July slowed to +2.4%. August went negative at -2.8%. September fell 7.6%, with 19,809 homes going under contract versus 21,431 a year earlier.
Now look at the median price over the same stretch. Up 1.2% in September, to $415,000. Seventh straight month of year-over-year gains.
That is the whole thesis in one chart. Contracts are what's coming. Closings are what already happened. The median price is the last domino. You can compare all 67 counties on our Florida median home prices by county page.
What is happening in the Jacksonville housing market?
Jacksonville is further along. Closed single-family sales in the Jacksonville metro fell 7.0% from last September, to 1,682, about twice the statewide decline. The metro median was $404,495, up 1.4%. And when we look directly at the Northeast Florida MLS, 55% of active listings have already cut their price. Our September Market Pulse for Northeast Florida breaks that down ZIP by ZIP, and our Jacksonville housing market data page tracks prices, days on market and closed sales over time.
So you have prices still rising on paper, more than half the sellers already cutting, and fewer buyers signing contracts every month. Those things cannot all stay true for long.
What could keep Florida home prices from falling?
I always try to lay out what would prove me wrong, so here is the data that cuts the other way.
Florida's active single-family inventory is actually down 9.8% from last year, to 95,799 homes, and months of supply fell to 4.4 from 5.1. Homes that did sell went under contract faster, 47 days versus 53, and sellers got 95.7% of their original list price, up from 94.7%.
That is not what a market in freefall looks like. Part of what is happening, I think, is that the homes priced right are still selling, and sellers who don't have to sell are simply not selling. New listings were up only 2.4%. A withdrawn listing never prints a low comp.
But notice that every one of those numbers describes homes that already went under contract. They tell you about the buyers who showed up. Pending sales tell you about the buyers who didn't. And with sentiment at record lows and rates up more than a full point from a year ago, I expect fewer buyers to show up this winter, not more.
What would change my mind? A real drop in rates that holds, a stronger jobs picture, or relief on Florida insurance costs. None of those are showing up in the data yet. For the longer view, see our Florida housing market outlook and forecast.
Is now a good time to buy a house in Florida?
If you are buying: you have more leverage than the headlines suggest. Contracts are down and sellers are cutting. I have said for years that the best time to buy is Halloween through Thanksgiving. Negotiate the total economic value of the deal, not just the list price, and make sure the payment works at today's rate, not at the rate you hope to refinance into.
If you are selling: the median price is not your competition. The 55% of listings that have already cut is. Price it right the first time. The seasonal slowdown is here, and the buyers still out there are the ones who feel worse about the economy than at any point on record. Check what homes in your area have actually sold for on our Florida home values by community page, not what the neighbors are asking.
If you are watching from the sidelines: watch contracts, not prices. Prices are the last thing to move, not the first. We track pending activity, new-listing flow and seller capitulation daily on our Florida live housing tracker.
What to watch next
Housing rarely breaks first. It breaks last. Sentiment turns, then contracts, then closings, then prices. The first two have already turned.
- October Florida closings and pending sales (out November 16). They will reflect contracts signed while rates were climbing to their highest level of the year. I will update this page with them.
- Weekly mortgage rates. Every move in the 30-year rate changes the payment math above.
- Price cuts and pending activity in your ZIP code. Look up your area on our Jacksonville ZIP code map or the Florida market pages, or read the latest Market Pulse report for your MLS.
Nobody buys a house feeling like this. The data says they already stopped.
Related
- Consumer sentiment, October 2026
- Florida housing market, September 2026
- Pending home sales, September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Will Florida home prices drop?
The statewide median has not dropped yet. The September 2026 single-family median was $415,000, up 1.2% from a year earlier and the seventh straight month of year-over-year gains. But new pending sales, which lead closings, fell 2.8% in August and 7.6% in September. Prices are usually the last thing to move, so contracts are the number to watch.
Are Florida home prices dropping right now?
Not on a statewide median basis. The more telling sign is that 55% of active listings in Northeast Florida have cut their price, and sellers received a median 95.7% of their original list price statewide in September.
Is now a good time to buy a house in Florida?
Buyers have more leverage than the headlines suggest, with contracts down and many sellers cutting prices. The key is making sure the payment works at today's rate. On a $400,000 loan at 7.32%, principal and interest is about $2,748 a month.
What is happening in the Jacksonville housing market?
Closed single-family sales in the Jacksonville metro fell 7.0% in September 2026 from a year earlier, to 1,682, about twice the statewide decline. The metro median was $404,495, up 1.4%.
How does consumer sentiment affect the housing market?
Sentiment tends to lead buying decisions. In October 2026 the index was 48.0, and the decline in current conditions came entirely from buying conditions for big-ticket purchases, which fell 18% on higher interest rates and affordability worries.
How much have mortgage payments changed this year?
On a $400,000, 30-year loan, principal and interest went from about $2,393 a month at the 2026 low of 5.98% (February 26) to about $2,748 at 7.32% (October 22). That is $355 more a month.
Jon Brooks is the co-founder of Momentum Realty and a Florida housing market analyst. More of Jon Brooks' housing research.