Investing in Duval County, FL Real Estate: The Actual Numbers

Considering rental property in Duval County, FL? The typical home ($297,493, Zillow) against typical rent ($1,616/mo, Zillow Observed Rent Index) works out to a 6.5% gross cap rate. Gross is where analysis starts, not ends — below is the investor cost stack that turns it into a real number, and the demand-and-supply data that decides whether the rent holds.

Duval County yield at a glance

The investor cost stack, worked

Start with $19,394 of gross annual rent. Property tax: investors get NO homestead exemption and no 3% cap — at Duval County’s typical 17.86 mills on a $297,493 assessment, roughly $5,315 a year (non-homestead assessments can still rise up to 10% annually). Insurance: Citizens averages about $1,315/yr here, and landlord (DP-3) policies typically price above owner-occupied. That already takes the yield to about 4.29% before vacancy, maintenance, management and any HOA — the line items that separate real operators from spreadsheet optimists.

Will the rent hold? Demand and supply

Rent growth here is running +1.1% (Zillow index). On demand, IRS migration data shows a net 912 people per year into the county; on supply, builders pulled 6,017 residential permits in 2025. Rising rents plus positive migration plus a restrained pipeline is the configuration that protects yields; the reverse erodes them. Our valuation model currently reads the county as undervalued by 11.6% versus income-and-rent fundamentals.

Where investors actually buy here

Community-level medians, days on market and price trends for every tracked Duval County community are on the county’s community and lifestyle pages — start with the affordability ranking and the county rent page (full rent-versus-own math).

The Duval County market, in context

Duval County is Jacksonville — a consolidated city-county of just over a million people that anchors Northeast Florida. It is the value-and-jobs play of the First Coast: home prices sit well below the South Florida and Gulf Coast metros, a deep military, healthcare, logistics, and finance economy keeps demand steady, and 20 miles of Atlantic beaches plus the St. Johns River give it a lifestyle that punches above its price. After three years of rapid appreciation, the market has cooled into the most balanced conditions buyers have seen since 2019.

The economy behind the market: {'drivers': 'military, healthcare, logistics and the port, financial services, and insurance', 'summary': "Duval has one of the most diversified economies in Florida, which is the single biggest reason its housing demand holds up through national cycles. The U.S. Navy is the region's largest single presence through Naval Air Station Jacksonville and Naval Station Mayport, together supporting tens of thousands of active-duty, civilian, and contractor jobs. Healthcare is the civilian anchor, led by Baptist Health, Mayo Clinic's Florida campus, and UF Health Jacksonville. Finance and insurance run deep — Florida Blue (GuideWell), Bank of America, Citi, FIS, and Fidelity all operate major Jacksonville hubs — and CSX is headquartered downtown. The port (JAXPORT) and a cluster of logistics and distribution operations, including a large Amazon footprint, round out a base that spreads risk across sectors that rarely contract at the same time.", 'employers': ['Naval Air Station Jacksonville / Naval Station Mayport (U.S. Navy)', 'Baptist Health', 'Mayo Clinic Florida', 'Duval County Public Schools', 'City of Jacksonville', 'Florida Blue / GuideWell', 'Bank of America', 'UF Health Jacksonville', 'CSX Corporation', 'Citi', 'FIS', 'Amazon', 'JEA', 'Southeastern Grocers'], 'jobNote': 'Metro Jacksonville hosts four Fortune 500 headquarters, including GuideWell (parent of Florida Blue) and CSX.'}

What could change it: Duval's risks are coastal and budgetary rather than catastrophic. Storm surge and riverine flooding are real along the beaches, the Intracoastal, and the St. Johns and its creeks — Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) both pushed water into low-lying neighborhoods — so flood zone and elevation matter enormously here, and a property's flood-zone status can swing the true cost of ownership by thousands a year. The county sits in a hurricane-exposed state, though it has historically been hit less directly than Southwest and the Panhandle. Property-insurance costs have climbed statewide, even if Duval's averages remain among the more reasonable in Florida. Inland, the main watch-items are overbuilding risk in the fastest-growing Southside corridors and the usual condo-association and special-assessment questions on older coastal buildings.

Near-term outlook: Expect Duval to stay roughly flat-to-slightly-up over the next 12 months. The cooling is demand-driven, not distress-driven: jobs and migration are still positive, but higher mortgage rates and three years of price gains have stretched affordability, so inventory has rebuilt and price cuts have become normal. Most local and national forecasters put Jacksonville-area appreciation in the low single digits for 2026, with more selection for buyers and longer days on market. The wildcards are mortgage rates (a meaningful drop would quickly absorb today's inventory) and the volume of new construction on the Southside, which is keeping a lid on resale pricing in the outer-ring communities.

Run the numbers in Duval County

• Find the best agent in Duval County
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• Duval County housing scorecard
• What would selling net you
• Buyer closing costs calculator

Common questions

Figures from Zillow research series, Zillow Observed Rent Index, verified county millage, Citizens Property Insurance, IRS SOI migration and Census permits, as of 2026-06-16; deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Informational only - not investment, tax or legal advice. Equal Housing Opportunity.