Momentum Research: independent market analysis, flood data, insurance estimates, buyer leverage, and objective property scoring, alongside the MLS listing. Not just the listing sheet.
105% above
$/sq ft vs community
$451 here vs $220 median sold (12 mo)
Buyer leverage
Strong seller market
8 days on market
2.5 months
Supply around this home
Seller <3 · balanced 3-6 · buyer >6
$12k–$24k/yr
Est. insurance · illustrative
Not a carrier quote; premiums vary widely by property. Get a real quote.
As of September 12, 2026, 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane in Mandarin Oaks, Jacksonville is listed at $2,499,000 (5,540 sq ft, about $451 per sq ft). That is 614% above Mandarin Oaks's median closed sale of $350,000 over the last 12 months (157 recorded sales). Per square foot it is above the community's recent $220/sq ft by about 105%. It has been 8 days on market, well inside the community's typical 26 days. Listing facts: built in 1981, a private pool, waterfront, no HOA. Figures are from the MLS record and county data; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
No CDD assessment on record
Built 1981 · 45 yrs
5,540 sq ft of living area
7-car garage
8 days on market
HOA ~$50/mo (estimate; confirm)
School district: Schools Mandarin is part of Duval County Public SchoolsCommunity built 1960–2026Publix · 2 min driveZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi · 2 min driveMandarin Oaks Shopping Center · 2 min drive
Momentum Research · Lake Mandarin
Pricing & the Lake Mandarin market
How this home is priced against recent nearby sales, and where Lake Mandarin has been over 25 years. Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records; closed sales, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates only; see data notes.
Price vs. size in Lake Mandarin
Each dot is a closed sale since 2001 (3678 total). This home is the gold marker.
Sale price (y) by living area in sq ft (x). realMLS closed sales.
Median $/sq ft by year
Community sold $/sq ft, 2012–2026. This home lists at $451/sq ft.
Median sale price by year
12-month median closed price, 2012–2026.
Market Heat by year (0–100)
Momentum Market Heat, 2013–2026. Now 53 (normal).
Property timeline
This home’s history
1981BuiltPer public record
Sep 4, 2026First trackedObserved at $2,499,000
NowActiveCurrently for sale
Build year is from public record. Listing milestones reflect movewithmomentum.com’s own observations since we began tracking this listing and are not the MLS listing history; dates and prices are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Financing
Estimated monthly payment
$16,760/mo
Principal & interest $12,980/mo77%
Taxes $2,374/mo14%
Insurance $1,356/mo8%
HOA $50/mo0%
$16,760/mo at 20% down, 30-yr @ 6.76% · edit any field to update.
Estimated from today’s asking price and current Duval County tax rates.
⚠️
Many first-time Florida buyers are surprised when property taxes jump after closing. This estimate helps you budget before you make an offer.
Current owner pays $30,050/yr ($2,504/mo)
+$13,700 more each year
(+46%)
Most of this comes from Florida’s Save Our Homes assessment cap resetting when the home sells — the current owner’s protected assessment doesn’t transfer to a new buyer.
Sources: Florida DOR certified tax roll (2025), realMLS. County public record, not MLS data — matched to this home by parcel ID. Estimates are not a tax bill.
Momentum Scores
Momentum Property Score
38/100
Strongest on: Market liquidity (75), Pricing power (53)
0 limited50100 exceptional
38/100 is limited across the objective indicators below. It reflects only those measures — not the home’s quality, condition, or desirability.
A 0-100 score built from objective property and market data: flood risk, insurance, pricing, supply, affordability, and recent sales. Higher means more measures line up in a buyer’s favor. It reflects only the factors below.
Price vs area0
This home $451/sq ft vs the community 12-month median $220/sq ft.
Affordability0
List price $2,499,000 vs the community median $350,000. Not a measure of personal affordability.
Market liquidity75
Community median 26 days on market, ~2.5 months of supply (12-month record).
Renovation upside52
From a 1981 build and $451/sq ft vs the community median $220/sq ft. Not a condition assessment.
Pricing power53
Recent sales closed at about 97.4% of original asking (~2.6% below). More room below asking generally favors buyers.
Market timing47
Momentum Market Heat is 53/100 (normal). Cooler readings generally favor buyers; hotter readings favor sellers.
Momentum Scores are objective, rules-based indicators computed from listing facts, public records, and recent nearby sales. They are not appraisals, valuations, investment advice, or judgments about a neighborhood or who should live there. Verify independently.
Momentum Research
The Momentum read
🟠 Seller-leaning conditions around this listing. 2.5 months of supply in the surrounding market and 8 days on market for this home, against a 26-day area median.Days on market:this home 8Area median: 26 daysWhy it matters: above-median time on market, together with the level of supply, is a clear sign of how much leverage sits with buyers.Momentum Research interpretation of the MLS facts in the snapshot above. Source: Data provided by realMLS. As of September 10, 2026.
🟡 Asking $451 per square foot, about 105% above the community’s $220 median. Lake Mandarin’s 12-month median sold price per square foot is $220. Median sold price per square foot is up 0.0% year over year. Confidence: Very High · 157 closed sales in 12 monthsMLS facts: realMLS closed sales. A per-square-foot gap is context, not an appraisal; condition, lot, and view set the final number here.
76% of homes in Lake Mandarin are owner-occupied. An estimated 24% are non-owner-occupied, including 11% held in a company or trust and 4% out-of-state owners.Why it matters: a high owner-occupied share typically means fewer rentals nearby and steadier resale demand.Source: Florida Department of Revenue 2025 assessment roll (public records), 1487 homes matched. Community-level context.
Recent Lake Mandarin sales closed near 97.4% of original asking.Why it matters: the community’s own record shows how far opening prices typically move, and how often buyers compete without financing.Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records, community-level, 12 months ending September 10, 2026. Aggregates only; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What’s unique here: one of only 34 active listings in Lake Mandarin, no CDD assessment.
Updated September 12, 2026 · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
Listing description
About this home
Arrive home to your own secluded sanctuary along the St. Johns River in historic Mandarin. Set beneath a magnificent canopy of mature cypress and live oak trees, this grand 5,800-square-foot residence offers an extraordinary combination of privacy, waterfront living and impressive spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining.
From the moment you enter, the St. Johns River commands your attention. Expansive water views can be enjoyed from all three levels of the home, creating the remarkable feeling of being on the water from nearly every vantage point.
Step outside the primary suite with your morning coffee as the river comes to life, or unwind in the evening with a cocktail off the kitchen while taking in the sunset and passing boats. Built for entertaining, the outdoor living spaces center around a private pool and outdoor kitchen, providing the perfect setting for everything from quiet afternoons to large gatherings with family and friends. A private dock with two boat lifts puts the river at your fingertips, while a second hidden dock overlooking the wetlands offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by the natural beauty of Northeast Florida.
Car enthusiasts will appreciate the rare climate-controlled five-car attached garage, with a portion currently transformed into the ultimate man cave, plus an additional two-car detached garage. A private elevator provides convenient access between levels, while the long, gated drive creates an impressive sense of arrival and offers abundant parking for guests. With its grand stature, breathtaking river views, mature landscape and exceptional privacy, this remarkable Mandarin estate is more than a home--it is a waterfront lifestyle.
Whether boating from your private dock, entertaining poolside, enjoying quiet moments overlooking the wetlands or simply watching the St. Johns River from the comfort of home, this is a place designed to make every day feel like a getaway.
Description provided by ONE SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY and reproduced from the MLS; not independently verified.
Property facts & sources
Every fact, sourced
Listing data, public records, our calculations, and what to verify — each fact shown once. Estimates and calculations shown are for general information only, are not appraisals or advice, and should be independently verified.
Listing facts MLS
List price$2,499,000
Bed / bath4 / 4.5
Living area5,540 sq ft
Year built1981
Property typeSingle Family Residence
Garage7-car
PoolYes
MLS #2162962
Listing status8 days on market
Public records & third-party data
FEMA flood zoneNot verified — check msc.fema.gov
Windstorm exposureModerate
CountyDuval
Area listings34 active · 21 under contract
Estimated first-year tax~$28,489/yr
CDD assessmentNone on record
HOA (estimate)$50/mo
Calculated estimates
Price per sq ft$451
Estimated monthly payment$16,760
Insurance (illustrative)$12k–$24k/yr
Comparable-sales median$350,000
Buyer should verify Buyer verify
Exact HOA dues, fees, and restrictionsRoof age and conditionHVAC age and conditionA property-specific insurance quoteSurvey and lot boundariesPermit historyFlood-insurance requirementsSchool zoning (confirm with the district)Property taxes after sale (homestead reset)CDD / community assessmentsSquare footage and room dimensions
This is a deliberately dumb estimate — living area times a range of recent neighborhood $/sq ft, and nothing else. It is not an appraisal, not market value, and not a valuation of this home. Even a tight range from comparable sales can’t price a specific home — here’s why.
$1,074,760the mess$1,362,840
Actual list price: $2,499,000 — compare it against the range above. The Messtimate is a blind sqft estimate; the list price reflects this specific home.
A 27% spread on the same house — and that gap is exactly what an automated guess can't see:
Condition & updates — a 1981 home may have had its roof, kitchen, or HVAC replaced since, or not; sq ft can't see either.
The lot — this listing is waterfront; water frontage is priced far off a per-sq-ft average of the neighborhood.
Outliers skew it — one flip or distressed sale in the comps drags the whole $/sq ft up or down.
Carrying costs & concessions — CDD, HOA, insurance, and seller-paid buydowns change what a buyer actually pays.
The pool — a private pool carries cost and value that living area doesn't capture.
And here's what the live market is doing — which the number above ignores entirely:
This home: 8 days on market vs. a 26-day community median
34 active listings competing, 19 under contract
≈2.5 months of supply
164 closed here in the last 12 months
For reference, this home is listed at $2,499,000 ($451/sq ft) — a number set with analysis a Messtimate can't do.
Want a property-specific review from a licensed agent? A Momentum Realty agent will do a real, free comparative market analysis — walking the home, the lot, the condition, and the live market. That's the difference between a Messtimate and a valuation.
Methodology: 5,540 sq ft × $194–$246/sq ft from recent nearby closed sales (public records). Estimate for general information only; not an appraisal, valuation, or offer. Updated September 12, 2026.
Keep looking
Similar homes for sale near Mandarin Oaks
Active listings nearby at a comparable size and price. Listings held by brokerages other than Momentum Realty are marked with the listing broker. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Listed for $2,499,000Momentum Realty · on market 8 days
Public records
Building permits
Permit history not yet linkedConfirm permit history with the county building department.
Estimated ownership costs
Estimated costs & disclosures
Estimated ownership costs for general information. Confirm each with the county, your lender, and an insurer. See data & estimate notes.
Property tax (first-year est.)
~$28,489/yr
A rough first-year estimate only, applying a typical Duval rate to the list price before any exemptions. Florida bills vary substantially after reassessment, homestead and other exemptions, and local taxing districts — this is not your expected bill. Confirm with the county property appraiser.
CDD assessment
None
No CDD assessment on record for this community.
Insurance (illustrative range)
$12k–$24k/yr
An illustrative modeled range, not based on carrier underwriting and not a quote. Florida premiums vary significantly by roof age, wind-mitigation features, claims history, and carrier — a real quote can land well outside this range. Flood zone not verified for this address — check msc.fema.gov and confirm coverage. Get a quote from a licensed insurer before relying on any figure.
HOA
$50/mo
Covers the master association & common areas. Confirm exact dues and what they include.
Environmental data
Flood zone & elevation
Sourced environmental data for the parcel. Confirm with FEMA and your insurer.
FEMA flood zone
Not verified
Not yet verified for this address. Look up the parcel at msc.fema.gov before relying on any flood assumption.
Ground elevation
Not on record
Approximate parcel elevation from USGS; confirm exact elevation with a survey.
Windstorm / insurance
Obtain a quote
This is a coastal Florida county. Premiums and coverage vary by home; obtain a quote from a licensed insurer.
Connectivity
Internet & broadband
Fiber
Check availability
AT&T Fiber covers much of NE Florida; confirm availability at the address.
Cable
Likely
Xfinity/Spectrum cable broadband is widely available.
5G Home
Backup
T-Mobile / Verizon fixed-wireless as a backup option.
Seen enough photos?
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Listed by ONE SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY · MLS # 2162962
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Market data · public records
Recent sales activity in Mandarin Oaks
Recent comparable closed sales near this home, from public records. Summary figures are for general reference only and are not a valuation of this property. See the Mandarin Oaks neighborhood guide for more.
Comparable sales found
0
Recent nearby closings in the data set.
Community median sale price
$350,000
Canonical 12-month median closed price. Reference only.
Community median $/sq ft
$220
Canonical 12-month median $/sq ft. Reference only.
Go deeper on Mandarin Oaks
See schools, amenities, builders, HOA/CDD detail, and every active & sold home in the community — the single biggest advantage of buying here over a portal.
Recent local developments near this home, compiled from news and public sources. Provided for general information; verify details with the original source.
Sep 2026 · Development
UF Health partner Intuitive is identified for a possible freestanding emergency room in Mandarin
City utility JEA received a service availability request for a freestanding emergency room in Mandarin, with UF Health Jacksonville partner Intuitive identified on the filing. The Daily Record reports it would be a possible fifth UF Health hybrid emergency and urgent care center in the Jacksonville area.
Why it matters: A hybrid emergency and urgent care center could shorten drive times for Mandarin households that now travel outside the area for emergency care, if the project moves past the utility request stage.
Burlington appears to be adding a second smaller Mandarin store
Burlington Stores appears to be pursuing a second Mandarin area location in about 28,020 square feet at Riverplace Shopping Center. The company indicated it would likely share more information later in the year closer to 2027 and said it has no current plans to close its existing Old St. Augustine Plaza store.
Why it matters: If it moves forward, the store could add to retail options in the area, though timing remains uncertain.
A closed Burger King at 11031 Old St. Augustine Road in Mandarin is in review for conversion into a Dairy Queen Grill and Chill. Depending on permits, construction could start in time for an October opening. The property owner leases the site to the franchisee group.
Why it matters: The proposal could bring another quick service dining option to the corridor if permitting proceeds.
Sparkle dog grooming approved for Mandarin Corners build-out
The city approved a tenant build-out for Sparkle, a dog grooming business, in 1,368 square feet at 10991 San Jose Blvd. in the Mandarin Corners shopping center. The June 4 permit lists AEC Integrated LLC as contractor at a stated cost of about $65,000.
Why it matters: Small service tenants continue to backfill space at Mandarin Corners, which may signal steady leasing demand along this stretch of San Jose Boulevard as the adjacent Raising Cane's site advances.
Approximate driving times to verified nearby destinations. Estimates for general reference; actual times vary with traffic and route.
Groceries
Publix 2 min
Dining
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi 2 min
Shopping
Mandarin Oaks Shopping Center 2 min
Parks
Walter Jones Historic Park 2 min
Assigned schools
Assigned schools
Schools currently assigned to this address in Duval County, provided as neutral factual data. Assignments can change — confirm current zoning with the school district. This is not a statement about the home's suitability for any person or family.
GRADEA
Mandarin Oaks Elementary SchoolPreK-5 · Duval County School District · Grade A (Florida DOE 2025-26)
GRADEA
Mandarin Middle School6-8 · Duval County School District · Grade A (Florida DOE 2025-26)
GRADEA
Mandarin High School9-12 · Duval County School District · Grade A (Florida DOE 2025-26)
How it stacks up
Comparable recent sales
Recent closed sales nearby, with photos, so you can compare. Sold prices are public record, deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
No closely comparable recent sales were found in this data set.
If you rent it out
Investment snapshot
Objective rental and cash-flow estimates for a buyer weighing this as an investment. Rough figures for general information only — not a guarantee of rent, an appraisal, or investment advice. Verify independently.
Estimated rent$11,454 – $16,660/moa rough gross-rent-yield range on list price (comp-based estimate coming).
Estimated cap rate4.3%Net operating income ÷ list price; excludes financing.
Est. monthly cash flow−$5,640 – −$955At 25% down, 30-yr; after a 10% vacancy/maintenance/management reserve.
Before you decide
Buyer research checklist
Items worth confirming for 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane, chosen from what the record shows. This is general guidance, not advice about this specific property.
Built in 1981 (45 years): ask for the roof and HVAC replacement dates — insurers commonly ask for roof age on homes this old, and it changes the premium.
The listing reports no HOA: confirm with the county record that no deed restrictions or mandatory association apply to this parcel.
Look up the parcel on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center and confirm with your insurer whether flood insurance is required.
Get a homeowners insurance quote for this specific address in Duval County; a wind-mitigation inspection and, on older homes, a four-point inspection can change the premium.
Private pool: confirm the barrier or alarm meets the state residential pool safety code and ask for pump, heater, and resurfacing records.
Waterfront: confirm seawall or dock condition and permits, and ask who owns and maintains the shoreline.
Listed living area is 5,540 sq ft: verify it against the property appraiser's record and measure before relying on it.
Order a survey to confirm lot boundaries and easements.
Review permit history with the county.
Property taxes: the estimate on this page (about $28,489/yr) assumes reassessment at the list price; the seller's homestead cap does not transfer, so their current bill is not a guide.
Confirm school zoning directly with the district.
Nearby & commute
Approximate distances
Approximate drive times for general reference only.
realMLS, refreshed twice daily (last: September 12, 2026)
Community market stats
realMLS closed sales, as of September 10, 2026
Flood zone & elevation
Not verified for this address — look it up at msc.fema.gov
Taxes & monthly cost
Estimated from county rates; not a quote
Insurance figure
Modeled estimate; obtain a real quote before offering
Schools
2025-26 district assignments; verify with the district
Momentum Research lines are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates are informational, not appraisals or advice. Methodology: how Momentum scores are computed.
Answered before you ask
Frequently asked questions
How big is 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane and when was it built?
Per the listing record, 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane was built in 1981 and has 5,540 sq ft of living area, 4 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms. Living area and lot size come from the MLS record and should be verified against the county property appraiser.
What community is 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane in?
14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane is in Mandarin Oaks in Jacksonville, Duval County. The community section on this page shows recent closed sales, days on market, and active inventory for Mandarin Oaks from the same MLS data.
Does 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane have an HOA?
The listing reports no HOA. Confirm with the county record that no deed restrictions or mandatory association apply to the parcel.
Why might property taxes on 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane differ from the current owner's?
The estimate on this page (about $28,489 per year) assumes reassessment at the list price. Florida's Save Our Homes rule caps annual assessment increases for homesteaded owners, and the assessment resets after a sale, so a new owner's bill may differ from the seller's. Any tax figure shown here is an estimate, not the actual bill — confirm with the county property appraiser and tax collector.
Is 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane in a flood zone?
A flood designation has not been verified for this address. Look up the parcel on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and confirm with your insurer.
Can I rely on the figures on this page?
No. Estimated taxes, insurance, payments, and any market or comparable-sales summary are opinions and estimates for general information only and should not be relied upon. Verify all information independently before making any decision.
Ready when you are
See 14030 MANDARIN OAKS Lane in person
Private tours available 7 days a week, in person or by live video walkthrough. Request a tour or send a question and a licensed Momentum Realty agent will follow up.
Opinion & estimate — do not rely on this page. Any figure on this page that is not a verbatim fact from the listing or a public record — including estimated property taxes, insurance, CDD/HOA amounts, mortgage payments, comparable-sales summaries, and market statistics — is an opinion and estimate provided for general informational purposes only. These figures may be inaccurate or out of date, are not appraisals, valuations, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice, and should not be relied upon. Do not make any purchase, offer, financing, or other decision based on this page. Independently verify everything — price, square footage, lot size, year built, taxes, CDD/HOA, flood status, school assignments, permits, and community rules — with the listing broker, the county, your lender, a licensed inspector, an insurer, and your own advisors before acting.
Estimate methodology. Tax estimates apply a typical county millage rate to the list price and will differ from the actual assessed bill. Cost and market figures are derived from available data and simple calculations, not a professional appraisal. We make no representation that any estimate reflects fair market value.
Equal Housing Opportunity. Content on this page is compiled from public records, MLS data, and automated sources and may contain errors or be out of date. It is general information only, not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association. Verify information independently before relying on it. Momentum Realty supports the Fair Housing Act and does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, national origin, sexual orientation, or gender identity. Information about schools, distances, and amenities is provided as neutral factual data to help you research the property and is not a statement about who should or should not live here or the suitability of the home or neighborhood for any person or group. School data may change — confirm current assignments with the school district.
Found an error? If you are the owner, listing agent, or a party to this property and believe any information is inaccurate, email and we will review and correct or remove it promptly.
Automated content. Some summaries, distances, and estimates on this page are generated automatically from public and proprietary data sources and may contain errors or omissions. We strive for accuracy but cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of any information. Verify anything important independently.
No warranty; measurements & photos. No guarantee, warranty, or representation of any kind is made regarding the completeness or accuracy of any information, descriptions, or measurements on this page — including square-footage measurements and property condition — all of which should be independently verified through appropriate means, including in-person inspection and public records. Photographs may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions. Momentum Realty and its agents expressly disclaim any liability in connection with the information provided.
Sold price and details are from public records and the MLS, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Shown for comparison only — not an appraisal or a statement of this home's value.
