Sources: realMLS (listings + 12-mo closed sales), FEMA, modeled insurance. Interpretation: Momentum Research. Data notes
As of October 14, 2026, 531 LAKE Road in Old Ponte Vedra, Ponte Vedra Beach is listed at $5,310,000 (4,539 sq ft, about $1,170 per sq ft). That is 34% above Old Ponte Vedra's median closed sale of $3,950,000 over the last 12 months (47 recorded sales). Per square foot it is above the community's recent $1,004/sq ft by about 17%. It has been 61 days on market. Listing facts: built in 1978, a private pool, waterfront, no HOA. The parcel maps to FEMA flood zone X, outside the special flood hazard area. Figures are from the MLS record and county data; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
A Hamptons-inspired beach house on one of Ponte Vedra Beach's most distinctive waterfront settings. 531 Lake Road is one of just 31 homes on an intimate, bridge-accessed island in the heart of Old Ponte Vedra. Set on nearly half an acre, this five-bedroom, four-and-a-half-bath home offers approximately 4,539 square feet with an expansive pool, broad lawn, private dock, and water views.
White-painted brick and cedar shake set the tone, while Brazilian walnut floors, soaring ceilings, and exposed beams create relaxed sophistication inside. The family room with Isokern fireplace opens toward the outdoor living areas. The chef's kitchen features an oversized marble island, 8-burner Thermador range, Sub-Zero refrigeration and walk-in pantry.
Outside, a substantial covered living area and Lynx outdoor kitchen overlook the pool, lawn, and water. A first-floor primary suite, flexible living spaces, and a new roof in 2025 complete this exceptional coastal retreat.
Description provided by KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY ATLANTIC PARTNERS and reproduced from the MLS; not independently verified.
Listing data, public records, our calculations, and what to verify — each fact shown once. Estimates and calculations shown are for general information only, are not appraisals or advice, and should be independently verified.
$38,197/mo at 20% down, 30-yr @ 7.4% · edit any field to update.
Editable estimate — not a loan offer. Estimates only; see data & estimate notes.
Property taxes in Florida are reassessed after a sale, so a buyer’s first full-year bill can be higher than the seller’s. Budget from this estimate, not the current bill, before you make an offer.
Most of this comes from Florida’s Save Our Homes assessment cap resetting when the home sells — the current owner’s protected assessment does not transfer to a new buyer.
Certified 2025 tax roll values for this parcel (Florida DOR). The roll gives values, not the bill; the current owner’s bill above is estimated from the taxable value.
Estimate my property taxes →Adjust for your exemptions, portability, and down payment
Sources: Florida DOR certified tax roll (2025), realMLS; millage: St. Johns County Property Appraiser, FY2025-26 adopted budget. County public record, not MLS data — matched to this home by parcel ID. Estimates are not a tax bill; the county property appraiser and tax collector set the actual amount.
The parts of the monthly number a mortgage calculator leaves out, from this listing's MLS record, the county tax roll, Citizens and FEMA. Property facts only.
| Property tax | The current owner's bill is about $16,750/yr (certified county roll, taxable value × millage). Buy at the asking price of $5,310,000 and the first-year bill resets to about $70,850/yr (the parcel is matched to the certified roll; asking price less the $50,000 homestead exemption × 13.47 mills); Save Our Homes caps later increases at 3%/yr. |
|---|---|
| HOA dues | The listing states there is no HOA. |
| Home and flood insurance | The average Citizens Property Insurance premium in Saint Johns County is $1,378/yr (977 policies, Citizens detail by county, April 2026); private-market quotes differ by roof age, wind mitigation and distance to the coast. The page's modeled range for this home is $24,000–$50,000/yr; neither is a quote. Flood: this address maps to FEMA zone X, outside the high-risk zone; flood insurance is optional but most lenders and insurers recommend it. Statewide, a zone X flood policy runs about $500–$700/yr (FEMA Risk Rating 2.0 averages, not a quote). |
| Roof and age | Built in 1978. An original roof would be about 48 years old; under Florida's 2022 reform (SB 2-D) carriers may require an inspection past 15 years, so budget for a roof report and ask for the roof permit date. |
Estimated carrying cost at the asking price, before the mortgage: about $6,019/month (tax $5,904, insurance $115). An estimate from the sources above, not a quote; the monthly-cost calculator on this page adds the loan.
Sourced environmental data for the parcel. Confirm with FEMA and your insurer.
From the FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer. In this zone lender-required flood insurance is generally not mandated; confirm for the parcel.
Approximate parcel elevation from USGS; confirm exact elevation with a survey.
St. Johns County is on the Florida coast; wind coverage is a major part of the premium. Premiums and coverage vary by home (roof age, wind mitigation, claims history); obtain a quote from a licensed insurer.
FEMA National Risk Index for St. Johns County, FL: overall Relatively Moderate. Ratings compare this county with every county in the United States for expected annual loss from each hazard.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index (county level, hazard risk ratings only). Ratings describe the county, not this parcel; the flood zone shown above is parcel-specific. Verify insurance requirements with your lender and agent.
Address-level fiber service is not confirmed for this home. Check the FCC National Broadband Map (broadbandmap.fcc.gov) or the provider for this address.
Cable broadband is common in Florida and Georgia towns but not confirmed for this address; verify with the provider.
5G home internet and satellite service depend on the exact location; check coverage for this address.
How this home is priced against recent nearby sales, and where Ponte Vedra Beach has been over 25 years. Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records; closed sales, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates only; see data notes.
List $/sq ft against recent nearby closed sales; the community median is marked.
Each dot is a closed sale since 2001 (895 total). This home is the gold marker.
Sale price (y) by living area in sq ft (x). realMLS closed sales.
Community sold $/sq ft, 2012–2026. This home lists at $1170/sq ft.
12-month median closed price, 2012–2026.
Momentum Market Heat, 2013–2026. Now 49 (normal).
Build year is from public record. The MLS list date is approximate (today minus the cumulative days on market the MLS reports, which can span relistings). Other milestones reflect movewithmomentum.com’s own observations since we began tracking this listing and are not the MLS listing history; dates and prices are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
6 closed sales within about 3 miles in the last 18 months — same property type, living area within 30% of this home. Sold prices are MLS closed-sale records, deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Median of these 6 sales: $3,950,000 ($1004/sq ft). Stronger local evidence. Shown for general reference only — not an appraisal or a statement of this home’s value.
Our automated estimate of the likely sale-price range for this home — modeled from recent closed sales nearby adjusted to today's market, a local size-and-age model, and the county tax roll. It is an estimate, not an appraisal, not market value, and not an offer. A licensed agent's CMA sees the condition, the lot, and the live market that a model can't.
Strong local evidence — built from 20 comparable closed sales within about 3 miles (same property type, closed within the last 18 months, each adjusted to today's market); the St. Johns County 2025 tax roll just value ($2,860,213) × the local sale-to-roll ratio of 40 nearby sales.
Track record: across 2,975 recent closed sales we scored, the closed price landed inside the Messtimate range 57% of the time; median miss 9.6% (closed sales statewide, FL + GA feeds that permit an automated estimate). Re-scored weekly; last 2026-10-14.
Actual list price: $5,310,000 ($1,170/sq ft) — the seller's asking price is not an input to this range; compare the two.
A 39% spread on the same house — here is what a model can't see:
And what the live market is doing right now:
Selling your own home? Try the Messtimate on your address →
Methodology: 20th–80th percentile band combining time-adjusted $/sq ft of comparable closed sales (20) + tax-roll just value × local sale-to-roll ratio (40 sales, double weight); MLS closed-sale records and the FL DOR 2025 certified tax roll. Automated valuation model output for general information only — not an appraisal, not market value, not an offer, and not reviewed by a licensed appraiser. Updated October 14, 2026.
50/100 is below average across the objective indicators below. It reflects only those measures — not the home’s quality, condition, or desirability.
A 0-100 score built from objective property and market data: flood risk, insurance, pricing, supply, affordability, and recent sales. Higher means more measures line up in a buyer’s favor. It reflects only the factors below.
Coverage: 7 of 8 indicators had valid data for this home; indicators without data are left out, not scored as zero. Momentum Scores are objective, rules-based indicators computed from listing facts, public records, and recent comparable sales. They do not measure property condition, quality, or investment suitability, and they are not appraisals, valuations, investment advice, or judgments about a neighborhood or who should live there. Verify independently.
🟢 Buyer-leaning conditions around this listing. 3.7 months of supply in the surrounding market and 61 days on market for this home, against a 44-day area median.Days on market:this home 61Area median: 44 daysWhy it matters: above-median time on market, together with the level of supply, is a clear sign of how much leverage sits with buyers.Momentum Research interpretation of the MLS facts in the snapshot above. Source: Data provided by realMLS. As of October 12, 2026.
🟡 Asking $1170 per square foot, about 17% above the community’s $1004 median. Ponte Vedra Beach’s 12-month median sold price per square foot is $1004. Median sold price per square foot is up 3.9% year over year. Confidence: Very High · 47 closed sales in 12 monthsMLS facts: realMLS closed sales. A per-square-foot gap is context, not an appraisal; condition, lot, and view set the final number here.
Recent Ponte Vedra Beach sales closed near 91.2% of original asking.Why it matters: the community’s own record shows how far opening prices typically move, and how often buyers compete without financing.Momentum Research analysis of realMLS records, community-level, 12 months ending October 12, 2026. Aggregates only; deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What’s unique here: a golf-course community, one of only 14 active listings in Ponte Vedra Beach, no CDD assessment.
Jump to: About this home · Every number, sourced · Monthly cost · Flood & risk · History · FAQ
Updated October 14, 2026 · MLS facts carry their source; interpretation lines are Momentum Research · Data sources & freshness
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Listed by KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY ATLANTIC PARTNERS · MLS # 2159951
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Active listings nearby at a comparable size and price. Listings held by brokerages other than Momentum Realty are marked with the listing broker. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Just listed: new homes for sale in Northeast Florida in the last 48 hours · updated hourly · RSS · Northeast Florida market today: new listings, price cuts, pendings
Recent local developments near this home, compiled from news and public sources. Provided for general information; verify details with the original source.
St. Johns County is evaluating a trolley that would stop at county owned sites and public beach access points. More public access affects the local cost share for an Army Corps beach restoration partnership. Nothing is decided, and a public meeting is set for Oct. 7 at the GTM Reserve.
Why it matters: Public access decisions tied to restoration funding could shape future beach maintenance along South Ponte Vedra.
A Ponte Vedra Beach home built in 2026 and marketed in a modern French country style sold for more than 11.68 million dollars, according to property records and listings reviewed by the Jacksonville Daily Record. The six bedroom house sits a short distance from the ocean and includes a three car garage.
Why it matters: An eight figure closing on new construction may reinforce the ceiling for oceanside Ponte Vedra Beach pricing, though single trophy sales rarely move the broader median.
The St. Johns County Commission voted 5 to 0 on September 1 to approve renovations at the Our Lady Star of the Sea Catholic Church campus in Ponte Vedra Beach. The plan replaces aging buildings with a consolidated early learning and administrative facility and raises the campus maximum development entitlement from 62,779 to 78,800 square feet.
Why it matters: Institutional campus updates like this tend to be neutral to positive for nearby resale activity because they modernize existing uses rather than add new traffic generators.
The Davis family, through BR4700 LLC, filed for Agricultural Enclave certification on 4,462 acres bordered on the east by the Intracoastal Waterway, with Palm Valley and Ponte Vedra Beach beyond it. The family's Nocatee development abuts the property to the south and its Estuary PUD sits to the west across the Duval line. The filing relies on a new state law effective July 1 that streamlines residential review on certified agricultural land.
Why it matters: Any eventual buildout on a tract this size next to existing Ponte Vedra area development could influence long run traffic and land use patterns, though certification alone does not entitle any homes.
See schools, amenities, builders, HOA/CDD detail, and every active & sold home in the community — the single biggest advantage of buying here over a portal.
Schools currently assigned to this address in St. Johns County, provided as neutral factual data. Assignments can change — confirm current zoning with the school district. This is not a statement about the home's suitability for any person or family.
Assigned schools per the MLS listing — assignments can change; confirm current zoning with the district. Browse school-zone pages →
Approximate driving times to verified nearby destinations. Estimates for general reference; actual times vary with traffic and route.
Where this home sits, with links to the matching guides. General reference only.
Items worth confirming for 531 LAKE Road, chosen from what the record shows. This is general guidance, not advice about this specific property.
| Listing record | realMLS, checked against the MLS hourly (last: October 14, 2026) |
| Comparable sales | realMLS closed sales within about 3 miles, last 18 months, as of October 12, 2026 |
| Flood zone & elevation | FEMA flood maps + USGS elevation (Zone X shown above) |
| Taxes & monthly cost | Certified county tax roll (parcel-matched) × county millage; an estimate, not a bill |
| Insurance figure | Modeled estimate; obtain a real quote before offering |
| Schools | 2025-26 district assignments; verify with the district |
Momentum Research lines are our own analysis of realMLS records; MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Estimates are informational, not appraisals or advice. Methodology: how Momentum scores are computed.
Per the listing record, 531 LAKE Road was built in 1978 and has 4,539 sq ft of living area, 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms. Living area and lot size come from the MLS record and should be verified against the county property appraiser.
531 LAKE Road is in Old Ponte Vedra in Ponte Vedra Beach, St. Johns County. The comparable-sales section on this page shows recent closed sales nearby from the same MLS data.
The listing reports no HOA. Confirm with the county record that no deed restrictions or mandatory association apply to the parcel.
The estimate on this page (about $70,850 per year) assumes reassessment at the list price less the homestead exemption. Estimated buyer taxes are about $54,100 more per year than the current owner’s estimated bill (+323%). Florida reassesses a home after it sells; for a homesteaded seller the Save Our Homes cap on their assessment does not transfer, and a buyer's own exemptions and portability are applied separately, so the two bills usually differ. Any tax figure shown here is an estimate, not the actual bill — confirm with the county property appraiser and tax collector.
The FEMA flood map places this parcel in Zone X, outside the special flood hazard area, so flood insurance is not usually required by a lender. It is still available and worth quoting; confirm the parcel's status with FEMA and your insurer.
No. Estimated taxes, insurance, payments, and any market or comparable-sales summary are opinions and estimates for general information only and should not be relied upon. Verify all information independently before making any decision.
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Opinion & estimate — do not rely on this page. Any figure on this page that is not a verbatim fact from the listing or a public record — including estimated property taxes, insurance, CDD/HOA amounts, mortgage payments, comparable-sales summaries, and market statistics — is an opinion and estimate provided for general informational purposes only. These figures may be inaccurate or out of date, are not appraisals, valuations, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice, and should not be relied upon. Do not make any purchase, offer, financing, or other decision based on this page. Independently verify everything — price, square footage, lot size, year built, taxes, CDD/HOA, flood status, school assignments, permits, and community rules — with the listing broker, the county, your lender, a licensed inspector, an insurer, and your own advisors before acting.
Estimate methodology. Tax estimates apply county millage to the list price (less the homestead exemption where the parcel is matched to the certified roll) and will differ from the actual assessed bill. Cost and market figures are derived from available data and simple calculations, not a professional appraisal. We make no representation that any estimate reflects fair market value.
Equal Housing Opportunity. Content on this page is compiled from public records, MLS data, and automated sources and may contain errors or be out of date. It is general information only, not a representation about any specific property, community, builder, or association. Verify information independently before relying on it. Momentum Realty supports the Fair Housing Act and does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, national origin, sexual orientation, or gender identity. Information about schools, distances, and amenities is provided as neutral factual data to help you research the property and is not a statement about who should or should not live here or the suitability of the home or neighborhood for any person or group. School data may change — confirm current assignments with the school district.
Found an error? If you are the owner, listing agent, or a party to this property and believe any information is inaccurate, email and we will review and correct or remove it promptly.
Automated content. Some summaries, distances, and estimates on this page are generated automatically from public and proprietary data sources and may contain errors or omissions. We strive for accuracy but cannot guarantee the completeness or accuracy of any information. Verify anything important independently.
No warranty; measurements & photos. No guarantee, warranty, or representation of any kind is made regarding the completeness or accuracy of any information, descriptions, or measurements on this page — including square-footage measurements and property condition — all of which should be independently verified through appropriate means, including in-person inspection and public records. Photographs may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions. Momentum Realty and its agents expressly disclaim any liability in connection with the information provided.
MLS / IDX. The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange (IDX) program of the Northeast Florida Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Momentum Realty are marked with the listing broker's name, and detailed information about such listings includes the name of the listing broker. Data provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. The information being provided is for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Source: realMLS (Northeast Florida Multiple Listing Service). © 2026 Northeast Florida Multiple Listing Service, Inc. All rights reserved.
Listing data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and is subject to change or withdrawal without notice. Square footage and lot size are approximate. Real estate brokerage services provided by Momentum Realty, licensed in Florida and Georgia. © 2026 Move With Momentum LLC.
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Sold price and details are from public records and the MLS, deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Shown for comparison only — not an appraisal or a statement of this home's value.
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