Our forecast for Jacksonville: home prices most likely stay flat to slightly lower through early 2027, homes keep selling a little faster than a year ago, and the number of new contracts keeps falling before it stabilizes. That is the probability-weighted read from our September 2026 Market Pulse, computed from NEFAR MLS (realMLS) closed records through October 29, 2026. The median single-family sale in Northeast Florida was $390,000 in September, up 1.3% from a year earlier, while new contracts were down 11.8% and 56% of active listings had cut their price. A market with rising prices and thinning demand is a market that is cooling, not crashing.
This page is the forward-looking companion to our 2026 Jacksonville real estate market report, which covers where the year started. Every figure below is dated and comes from our own data files.
Where does the Jacksonville market stand going into the forecast?
These are the September 2026 readings for the Northeast Florida single-family market from our Market Pulse (NEFAR MLS records, closings through October 29, 2026):
- Median sale price: $390,000, up 1.3% year over year. Same-home resales (the same parcel sold twice) appreciated 1.6% per year.
- Median days on market: 41, down 8.9% from a year ago.
- New contracts written in September: 1,622, down 11.8% year over year and down 8.3% from August.
- Months of supply: 3.8. Active listings across the region: 9,016, of which 6,805 were single-family.
- Share of closings over the original list price: 12%. Share of active listings with at least one price cut: 56%.
- Momentum Market Score: 44 out of 100, "Balanced, soft," down 2 points from August.
The live county picture is current to October 30, 2026 (our county-truth file, computed from the raw MLS feed). Duval County had 4,283 active listings, 1,434 pending, 13,633 closings over the trailing 12 months, a median list price of $304,900, a median of $187 per square foot, 63 median days on market and 3.8 months of supply. Inside the city of Jacksonville itself there were 4,159 active listings and 1,404 pending, with a median list price of $299,000.
What is the forecast for Jacksonville home prices?
Our six-month directional model weights each outcome by how strongly the leading indicators are moving. An indicator moving 10% or more year over year gets a 65/25/10 split, a moderate move 55/30/15, and a weak or absent move 45/35/20. From the September 2026 edition:
- Median price, year over year: 65% flat to slightly lower, 25% down 2% to 4%, 10% up 2% or more.
- Days on market: 55% keep shortening, 30% flat, 15% reverse and lengthen.
- New contracts, year over year: 65% still falling, 25% stabilizing, 10% turn positive.
- Active price cuts, share of listings: 60% stay elevated, 30% hold flat, 10% fall back.
So the base case into early 2027 is a median that drifts sideways, a few percent either way by month and county. The price row leans flat rather than down because of the mix: the median rose 1.3% in September even though closings fell 5.7%, because $600,000-plus homes were 21% of sales. Strip out the mix and same-home appreciation was 1.6% a year. That is the number to watch, small but still positive.
What does our 20-year back-test say about the next six months?
We scored every month since 2005 on supply, speed, the over-list share and price-cut discipline, then measured what the median price actually did over the following six months. The back-test score bottomed at 7 in March 2008 and peaked at 90 in June 2021. In October 2026 it reads 35, which puts the market at the top of the buyer's-market tier.
What happened next, averaged across 256 monthly readings since 2005: buyer's-market months (score 0 to 33) saw the median move 1.3% over the next six months; balanced-soft months 1.1%; balanced-firm months 7.3%; seller's-market months (67 and up) 7.2%. A reading of 35 has historically meant small moves, not big ones. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
How do the four Jacksonville-area counties differ?
September 2026 closed-sale medians by county, with the year-over-year change and where each sits versus its 2022 peak (NEFAR MLS, closings through October 29, 2026):
- Duval: $343,999 median on 868 sales, up 4.2% year over year, 1.7% below the 2022 peak, 33 median days on market, 20% cash.
- St. Johns: $577,450 on 412 sales, up 3.1%, 0.6% above the peak, 42.5 days, 27% cash.
- Clay: $355,000 on 225 sales, down 2.7%, 7.8% below the peak, 56 days, 17% cash.
- Nassau: $496,500 on 96 sales, up 4.5%, 18.2% above the peak, 44.5 days, 29% cash.
Clay is the county most likely to land on the "down 2% to 4%" branch, since it is already negative year over year with the longest days on market of the four. St. Johns sits at its peak with the tightest supply (3.3 months on October 30, 2026), so the pressure there is on how long homes sit rather than on price.
What will mortgage rates do to the Jacksonville forecast?
We do not forecast rates. The figure our county pages carried for the September edition was a 30-year fixed of about 7.40% (Freddie Mac PMMS via our national data lane), which puts the principal-and-interest payment on the $390,000 median single-family home at $2,160 a month with 20% down, up 1.3% from a year ago. That payment is the reason contracts are down 11.8% while prices are up 1.3%: the buyers who are closing are a smaller, better-capitalized group, 22% of them paying cash.
The tail cases hinge on rates. The 10% upside branch for prices needs a meaningful drop in the payment; the 25% downside branch becomes more likely if the payment stays where it is through the spring listing season. Our monthly Florida housing tracker carries the statewide context: the Zillow typical home value in Florida was $390,450 in September 2026, down 0.5% year over year, with 171,208 active listings statewide, down 11.2% from a year earlier.
When in 2027 does the seasonal pattern help sellers?
Seasonality matters more in a flat market than in a rising one, because it is the only tailwind left. Across 24 years of Duval County closings (2002 to 2025), homes that closed in January sold for 8.1% below that year's average price and took a median 51 days to go under contract. June closings averaged 3.7% above the annual norm with a 96.3% sale-to-original-list ratio and 43 days. With roughly a month from contract to closing, a June closing means listing in April. Our page on the best time to sell a house in Jacksonville works through the month-by-month tables.
The first real test of the "flat to slightly lower" base case comes with the March to June 2027 closings. If spring medians cannot clear the 2026 levels ($390,000 in March 2026, $410,000 in June 2026 for the region), the down branch is winning.
What should buyers do with this forecast?
Negotiate on price and terms, and do not wait for a crash that the data does not show. With 56% of active listings already cut and contracts down 11.8%, you have more leverage than the 1.3% headline suggests. Ask for seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown, especially on new construction (24% of September closings). Use our Florida home offer calculator to price the offer against days on market and the listing's cut history, and our buyer closing costs calculator to know your cash to close before you write it. Start from the live inventory at homes for sale in Jacksonville.
What should sellers do with this forecast?
Price to the current comps, not to the 2022 peak, and list into the spring window. Regionally the median September 2026 sale closed at 96.4% of its original list price, and 72% of closings came in below list. A listing that starts high and cuts later joins the 56% of the inventory that has already cut. If you want to know what your home would bring today, start with a Jacksonville home value estimate and have a listing agent pull the comparable closings from the last 90 days.
People also ask
Will Jacksonville home prices go down in 2027?
Our September 2026 model gives a 65% probability that the Northeast Florida median stays flat to slightly lower over the next six months, a 25% probability it falls 2% to 4%, and a 10% probability it rises 2% or more. Clay County, already down 2.7% year over year in September 2026, is the most likely of the four core counties to print a decline.
Is Jacksonville a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
Our Momentum Market Score read 44 out of 100 for September 2026, which we label balanced and soft, down 2 points from August. Months of supply was 3.8, 56% of active listings had cut price, and 12% of closings sold over list. Supply and days on market still lean toward sellers; price cuts and falling contracts lean toward buyers.
What is the median home price in Jacksonville in late 2026?
The September 2026 median single-family sale in Northeast Florida was $390,000, up 1.3% year over year. Duval County's September median was $343,999 on 868 closings. On October 30, 2026 the median list price inside the city of Jacksonville was $299,000 across 4,159 active listings. Figures are from NEFAR MLS records and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
How long do homes take to sell in Jacksonville?
The September 2026 median was 41 days from list to contract across Northeast Florida, down 8.9% from a year earlier. Duval County's September median was 33 days. Our county-truth file, which measures current active inventory rather than closed sales, showed a 63-day median for Duval County active listings on October 30, 2026.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying in Jacksonville?
We do not forecast rates. At the 7.40% 30-year rate our September 2026 edition used, the payment on the $390,000 median home was $2,160 a month with 20% down. Contracts were down 11.8% at that payment, which is why 56% of listings had cut price. If rates fall, the missing buyers return and the 10% upside branch of our price forecast becomes more likely.
When is the best month to list a home in Jacksonville in 2027?
Across 24 years of Duval County closings (2002 to 2025), June closings averaged 3.7% above the annual average price with the strongest sale-to-list ratio at 96.3%. A June closing usually means listing in April. January closings averaged 8.1% below the annual norm.
Next step
Buying: browse the live inventory at homes for sale in Jacksonville, FL. Selling: get a Jacksonville home value estimate built from recent MLS closings. The full September 2026 report, with the ZIP heat map and price-band tables, is at the Northeast Florida Market Pulse.
Sources: Momentum Market Pulse, Northeast Florida, September 2026 edition (NEFAR MLS / realMLS closed records through October 29, 2026); Momentum county-truth and city-truth files as of October 30, 2026; Momentum county seasonality file (Duval County closings 2002 to 2025); Momentum Florida Housing Tracker, September 2026 release (Zillow Research). MLS figures are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The forecast is a directional model for discussion and is not investment advice.