Data Analysis

A Momentum Research model built on September 2026 Florida data finds a buyer of a $425,000 home at 6.66 percent recovers the cost of buying and selling in about three years at 3 percent appreciation, but does not come out ahead of renting the same home for roughly 20 years.

The two answers are different questions. Round-trip transaction costs take 9.9 percent of appreciation to recover. Beating rent depends most on what the equivalent home rents for, how fast prices rise, and the mortgage rate, in that order.

Buying a $425,000 Florida home in September 2026 with 10 percent down at 6.66 percent, the Freddie Mac rate for the week of August 27, costs about $3,377 a month in the first year against $2,015 to rent, using Zillow's typical Florida-metro rent. The buyer recovers the cost of getting in and getting out, about 9.9 percent of the price, after roughly three years if the home appreciates 3 percent a year, ten years at 1 percent, and two years at 5 percent. Coming out ahead of a renter who invested the same money takes far longer: about 20 years at 3 percent appreciation, six years at 5 percent, and more than 30 years at 1 percent, which is close to Florida's current pace. Those are the two answers to "when does a house break even," and they are not the same question.

What does it actually cost to buy and sell a Florida home?

The round trip is the number most buyers underestimate. On the way in, Florida charges documentary stamp tax of $0.35 per $100 on the mortgage note and an intangible tax of 0.2 percent of the loan, and title, lender and settlement charges bring buyer closing costs to roughly 2.5 percent of the price. On the way out, the seller pays a commission that this model sets at 5.5 percent, deed stamps of $0.70 per $100 of the sale price, and title and settlement charges of about half a percent, for 6.7 percent.

Put those together and a home must rise 9.86 percent in value before a sale returns the cash the owner put into it. At 3 percent annual appreciation that takes 3.2 years. At 1 percent, 9.5 years. At 5 percent, 1.9 years. This is the sale break-even, and it is the definition most people mean when they ask how long they need to stay.

It ignores everything the owner paid to live there in the meantime. That is what the second definition adds.

When does owning cost less than renting?

The rent break-even asks a harder question: at what point has the owner spent less, all in, than a renter of the equivalent home who invested the down payment and closing costs and every month's difference at a market return?

The model runs month by month for 30 years. The owner pays principal and interest of $2,458 a month on a $382,500 loan, property tax at Florida's 0.78 percent effective rate on the assessed value less the $50,000 homestead exemption, with assessed growth capped at 3 percent a year under Save Our Homes, insurance starting at $1,843 a year, maintenance at 1 percent of value, and private mortgage insurance until the loan falls below 80 percent of the original price. The renter pays $2,000 a month plus renter's insurance, growing 3 percent a year, and earns 4.75 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield on August 31, on every dollar not spent. At the end of each year the owner sells, pays 6.7 percent, and repays the loan.

On those inputs, owning first costs less than renting in year 20 at 3 percent appreciation, year 6 at 5 percent, and not within 30 years at 1 percent. The first-year gap is the problem: the owner is out $1,362 a month more than the renter, and appreciation on $425,000 at 3 percent is $1,062 a month before selling costs.

Which variables matter most?

Each bar moves one input across a range that spans plausible Florida conditions and reports the change in the 10-year cost of owning relative to renting. Ranked by the size of the swing:

Appreciation, from 1 to 5 percent a year, moves the 10-year result by $193,000. Nothing else comes close, and it is the one input nobody controls.

The comparable rent, from $1,600 to $2,600 a month, moves it by $173,000. This is the input the model is least sure of. Zillow's Observed Rent Index blends apartments and houses, so $2,000 understates what a single-family home comparable to a $425,000 purchase rents for. At $2,600 the rent break-even at 3 percent appreciation drops from 20 years to seven. At $3,000 it is four. Anyone using this model for a real decision should replace the rent figure with an actual quote.

The mortgage rate, 7.5 versus 5.5 percent, moves it by $97,000. Dropping the rate to 5.5 percent cuts the base-case break-even from 20 years to 10.

Maintenance, 2 percent of value versus half a percent, moves it by $93,000. Florida's climate and building stock argue for the higher end on older homes.

A $400 monthly HOA fee costs $61,000 over ten years against no fee. Insurance at $6,000 a year instead of $1,843 costs $60,000. Rent growth from 1 to 5 percent swings the result by $59,000. The return the renter earns on the money saved, 3 versus 6 percent, swings it by $52,000. Down payment, 5 versus 20 percent, moves it by $39,000. Selling costs, 8 versus 5 percent, move it by only $17,000, because the rent comparison spreads a one-time cost over a decade. Selling costs dominate the sale break-even and barely register on the rent break-even.

How do the big Florida metros compare?

Using Realtor.com's August 2026 median list prices, Zillow's July 2026 typical rents, and Citizens Property Insurance's April 2026 average premiums by county, the rent break-even at 3 percent appreciation is 10 years in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, 13 in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, 18 in Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and 23 in Jacksonville.

The ordering is almost entirely the ratio of rent to price. Miami's $2,677 rent on a $490,000 home is 6.6 percent a year. Tampa's $2,013 on $390,000 is 6.2 percent. Orlando's $1,959 on $415,000 is 5.7 percent. Jacksonville's $1,711 on $380,000 is 5.4 percent. A higher ratio means renting is expensive relative to buying, and buying wins sooner. At 5 percent appreciation the four metros break even in four to seven years. At 1 percent only Miami gets there within 30, in year 21.

What does Florida's own history say?

The FHFA all-transactions index for Florida runs from 1975. Since the first quarter of 2000 it has compounded at 5.54 percent a year, and there have been 86 purchase quarters with a full five years of data after them.

Sixty-three of those 86, or 73 percent, saw prices rise more than the 9.86 percent needed to cover a round trip. The median five-year holding period returned 8.05 percent a year. The best, buying in the first quarter of 2001, more than doubled.

The 23 that failed were not scattered. Every one was bought between the second quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2009. A buyer in the first quarter of 2007 who sold five years later was down 44 percent before paying a commission. Anyone who bought in that window and held ten years instead of five came out ahead.

Ten-year holds are less forgiving than most buyers assume. Sixty-four percent cleared the threshold, and the median ten-year annual return was 3.11 percent, because the ten-year windows that started in the 2004 to 2007 run-up spent their first half underwater.

The four metros track the state. Miami compounded at 6.71 percent since 2000, Tampa 6.18 percent through 2024, Orlando 5.18 percent, Jacksonville 4.98 percent. Between 70 and 76 percent of five-year holds cleared the threshold in each.

What should a Florida buyer take from this?

Three things.

If the plan is under three years, the question is only whether prices rise 10 percent in that time, and Florida's current pace is about 1 percent a year. The FHFA purchase-only index put Florida at 0.96 percent over the year to the second quarter of 2026.

If the plan is five to ten years, the history is on the buyer's side about three times in four, and the one-in-four failures clustered in a single overheated window.

If the question is whether buying beats renting, get a real rent quote for the equivalent house before believing any calculator, this one included. The answer swings from 20 years to seven on that number alone.

Current conditions by market are on the Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville hub pages, and the desk's coverage of the August Realtor.com report and mortgage rates carries the inputs.

Limitations

The rent figure is Zillow's Observed Rent Index for each metro, which blends apartments and single-family homes and understates the rent on a house comparable to a median purchase. This is the model's largest source of uncertainty, and the sensitivity section shows its effect.

Insurance uses Citizens Property Insurance average premiums, which are a documented public figure but skew below full-replacement private-market quotes on a median-priced home. The $6,000 sensitivity case covers that gap.

Metro prices are Realtor.com median list prices for August 2026, not closed-sale prices. The statewide price is the Florida Realtors July 2026 single-family median closed price.

The model excludes the mortgage interest deduction, which the standard deduction makes irrelevant for most buyers at this price, and excludes any tax on the renter's investment gains. It assumes the buyer stays in the home and does not refinance.

The FHFA all-transactions index includes refinance appraisals and is not the purchase-only index used in FHFA's headline release. FRED's copy of the Tampa series ends in the fourth quarter of 2024; Tampa's long-run figures stop there.

Round-trip costs use a 5.5 percent commission. Commission is negotiable and has been falling. The 5 percent selling-cost case in the sensitivity section shows the effect.

All break-even years are for a buyer who purchased in September 2026 at the inputs stated. They are model outputs, not forecasts, and they change with every input.

Sources

Florida Realtors, July 2026 monthly market detail, statewide single-family median $425,000, released August 17, 2026.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed 6.66 percent, week ending August 27, 2026.

Realtor.com, August 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, median list prices by metro, September 2, 2026.

Zillow, Observed Rent Index for July 2026, press release August 18, 2026.

Citizens Property Insurance Corporation average premiums by county, April 2026, as reported by Momentum Research, August 23, 2026.

Tax Foundation, Florida effective property tax rate 0.78 percent, 2026 Florida Tax Rates and Rankings.

Florida Statutes 201.02, 201.08 and 199.133, documentary stamp and intangible taxes. Florida Constitution Article VII Section 4, Save Our Homes assessment cap.

Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for Florida and for the Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville metropolitan areas, quarterly, via FRED, updated August 25, 2026.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity yield, 4.75 percent, August 31, 2026.

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.