Data Analysis

Three Fed officials voted to raise rates in July and markets now price a September hike. Florida buyers waiting for cheaper mortgages are waiting on something the Fed is not discussing.

Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday at 2 p.m., show a committee holding at 3.50 to 3.75 percent with its risks pointed the other way from what buyers hope: many participants saw tightening as likely if inflation does not fall.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in July, and Wednesday's minutes show the vote was 9 to 3. All three dissents, from Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, were votes to raise the rate by a quarter point. Nobody on the committee argued for a cut.

That direction matters more than the hold. The minutes record that many participants assessed policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline, and that risks to the inflation forecast were seen as skewed to the upside. By the July meeting, market pricing already implied a one in three chance of a hike; the minutes note markets were fully pricing a quarter point increase by September. The median respondent to the New York Fed's dealer survey expected no rate change this year or next, with the first cut in early 2028.

The inflation numbers behind that posture: total PCE inflation ran 4.1 percent over the twelve months through May, with core at 3.4 percent, and the staff attributed much of the increase to tariffs and AI-related price pressures. The Fed's target is 2 percent.

What this means for a mortgage

The Fed does not set mortgage rates, but the path it signals sets the floor under them. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.67 percent in the week of August 13, and it has held between roughly 6.6 and 6.8 percent all summer. A committee whose next move is more likely up than down, with the first cut penciled into 2028 by its own dealer survey, is a committee describing mortgage rates near 7 percent as the operating environment, not a phase.

The minutes contain exactly one sentence about housing: home-purchase mortgage activity remained depressed. That is the whole discussion. The committee is not weighing housing weakness against inflation; housing weakness is simply part of the landscape it is willing to accept while inflation runs above target.

The Florida translation

Our July data shows what that rate environment has already produced here: statewide inventory at decade highs, sellers taking 95.1 percent of original asking price, and a market where condo sellers outnumber buyers three to one in Miami-Dade. All of that happened at 6.7 percent mortgage rates. The minutes say those rates are not going anywhere soon, and could go higher.

For buyers, the arithmetic is uncomfortable but honest: waiting for the Fed to rescue affordability means waiting into 2028 on the Fed's own numbers, while negotiating leverage is available now. Every month of the current market, sellers concede more than they did the month before.

For sellers, the minutes remove the most common reason to wait. A listing priced for the spring 2027 market the seller hopes the Fed will create is priced for a market the Fed's own survey does not forecast.

For anyone holding an adjustable rate or a HELOC, three dissents for a hike is the number to notice. Short rates reset off the funds rate directly, and the committee's bias is up.

Limitations

Minutes describe a meeting three weeks past; conditions and market pricing have moved since July 29. The minutes' market-pricing observations (the one in three hike probability, the fully priced September hike) are the committee staff's characterizations as of the meeting, not current quotes. Mortgage rate figures are Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS average for conforming 30-year loans and describe no individual quote. We make no forecast of the September 15-16 decision; the passages quoted are the committee's own words about its bias, which is a different thing from an outcome. Our Florida market figures are our own MLS computations for July 2026 and are described in the linked reports.

Sources and links

• Federal Reserve, Minutes of the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
• Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, MORTGAGE30US
• Related: /news/florida/florida-condo-sellers-outnumber-buyers-july-2026/
• Related: /news/florida/macro-brief-august-19-2026/
• Data hubs: /data/markets/

Disclosure: Jon Brooks is a co-founder of Momentum Realty, a Florida real estate brokerage that owns and funds Florida Housing Intelligence. Momentum has a financial interest in Florida real estate transactions, including in markets named here. See our editorial standards.